Quick look at next years big games WRT returning starters
More than halfway through the year, thought it might be a good idea to see how next year's matchups will stack up. All info comes from Rivals...I throw in some minimal commentary, but thought others might find this interesting.
Umich returns 8.5 on offense (loses FB and swaps Stonum for Hemmingway, loses Koger and Molk). Returns 8.5 on D depending on how you view Heinenger.
Sparty returns 6.5 on offense with all the loses huge (QB, WR1/2, best O lineman and .5 for Fullback) They return 9 on Defense and that assumes Worthy heads to NFL.
OSU returns 8 on offense with all 3 loses on the O-Line. They retrurn 10 on D with LB Sweat hitting the road.
Nebraska returns 9 on offense (only losing 2 lineman) and 9 on D (Crick is not counted since as of today he is done playing in college)
ND returns 7 on O (lose Floyd + 3 starting O lineman and 2 of their top 5 lineman backups) and 5 on D (I show Lynch as a starter and rivals has him as a backup)
Alabama returns 6 on offense (I assume T. Rich is gone) and 5 on D (the D starts 6 seniors and 5 juniors and I assume one Junior goes Pro - will possibly be 2 or 3).
Summary of returning players out of 22:
Umich: 17/22 or 77%
Sparty:15.5/22 or 70%
OSU:18/22 or 82%
Nebraska: 18/22 or 82%
Notre Dame: 12/22 or 55%
Alabama: 11/22 or 50%
Again my disclaimer: data is only as good as Rivals depth chart data.
Summary: Sparty's D will be very good again next year. Notre Dame loses a lot and so does Alabama, but Alabama has All Big Ten caliber talent on their bench.
October 17th, 2011 at 1:21 PM ^
MSU shouldn't have much of a passing game next year. Michigan's d-line will just have to slow down Sparty's running game. They can play the bear defense most of the game, and they'll do it well enough to win, by God.
As for OSU, if someone replaces Fickell, he's going to come into a heck of a good situation.
As for ND, they will either be competing for a national championship soon or Kelly will have failed massively.
Re: Alabama, I see that game as an investment in the Big Ten season. Bo used to schedule really hard non-conference schedules to get his teams ready for the Big Ten. I don't expect Michigan to beat Alabama, but I do expect them to learn from the game.
October 17th, 2011 at 1:54 PM ^
a good situation assuming the NCAA has no balls and doesn't cripple them for the next 2 or 3 years.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:15 PM ^
We probably should reserve final judgement on how good of a situation the next OSU coach will be entering until the NCAA hands down it's final judgement as well as wether or not the investigation will lead to additional allegations.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:35 PM ^
OSU is going to have a lot of talent (barring a mass exodus) regardless of the NCAA, though.
October 17th, 2011 at 1:54 PM ^
the run this weekend and we weren't able to do that. We lose Martin next year, I'm very, very scared about our D line. The OSU game this year just got a lot scarier too. As to next year for OSU, bowl bans are hardly a good situation. And I think we'll be able to keep the Alabama game closer than most people think. If we're lucky, maybe even pull out a win.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:30 PM ^
The interior of our DL is going to be young or inexperienced. I'm just glad that BWC is showing glimpses of being a starter because he is young, but he is inexperienced.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:38 PM ^
switched to the bear front, and he couldn't do that as much as he'll be able to next year b/c MSU could trust Cousins a lot more than they'll be able to trust their next QB.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:12 PM ^
Nice breakdown, and kind of puts into perspective how far this team still has to go. Losing Martin will be a big blow, but the younger guys are showing some promise. I think losing RVB will be as big of a hit, as he had been solid the past couple of weeks after recovering from whatever illness he had. It will be a young unit, but at least the secondary should be good with only Woolfolk leaving. Molk will be a bigger loss than most non-UM fans will realize, but hopefully there is someone in the pipe (I'm guessing Khoury, but who knows) who can pick up the slack with manageable drop-off.
OSU is going to be a mess next year if the NCAA comes down on them the way it looks like they will, and while MSU returns a good defense, that offense loses its senior QB, best two WRs, and a couple of linemen. I think Maxwell is their QB of the future, and would be playing meaningful minutes for the first time in his career.
ND should be good, and Alabama will be tough. But again, they are going to have a lot of number starters on the defense and that running game might fall on the shoulder of Dee Hart (ugh...), so who knows. That is a likely loss, but should be a decent game.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:21 PM ^
me. Saban never rebuilds, he just reloads. I see us being outmatched in speed and skill in many places. Alabama's MO is they let you do what you want the first series and then they completely shut you down for the rest of the game. They adjust better than any team I have seen to what you are trying to do. Four teams have scored only once or less on the Tide this season and no one has scored more than twice. We have a long way to go before then, but we will need all of that time to get there.
We have got to find a consistent running game and a solid short passiing game to fill in when the runnning game is stopped by nine in the box.
October 17th, 2011 at 8:29 PM ^
Not to undervalue Alabama, they're pretty solid, but noone wins all the time. This year they're running the table on a pretty down SEC. Their game against PSU was interesting, their game against LSU will be the most telling. They had a great qb and a dual headed rush attack, now they live and die by TRich. They could very well be next years Auburn if TRich goes.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:22 PM ^
I'd feel better about the large number of players guys we're returning next season if we had clearcut successors to those players we're losing. Of the 5 starters graduating, I don't see equivalent replacements waiting in the wings for 3 of them (Molk, Koger, Martin).
It's a little early to start fretting about this now, because we have a lot of season to finish yet.
October 17th, 2011 at 6:06 PM ^
Umich returns 8.5 on offense
That assumes Denard is a returning starter. I think it would be really interesting to have a discussion about whether Devin should take over. We should totally do that!
October 17th, 2011 at 6:53 PM ^
Sparty is an unknown. Obviously, their defense should remain solid, but their offense is going to blow.
OSU should be improved, especially if there's a coaching change.
Nebraska should be solid, as always.
Notre Dame is an unknown. They still return playmakers on offense (although none of them touch Floyd) and they return three linemen (sorry, nitpicking) center Braxston Cave is eligible for a fifth year. Their secondary is going to be subpar, even horrid, losing three very experienced starters (a lot of people think incoming frosh Tee Shepard could start right away). The defense returns 6 starters (again, nitpicking). Aaron Lynch is not a true starter, he's only playing in place of injured Ethan Johnson, but he's a monster and his ceiling is somewhere beyond the Milky Way Galaxy.
Lost starters mean nothing to Alabama. Last year they won 10 games and it was considered a down year. Replacing 9 starters on defense, they still managed to field a Top 10 unit in yards per game. I think Michigan is improving dramatically, but they are still far behind the Crimson Tide.
October 17th, 2011 at 9:11 PM ^
offense = - 3 (floyd, robinson, dever) i believe cave has a redshirt...
defense = -4 (the whole freaking secondary) - 1 from the front 7 (fleming). ethan johnson is a loss from the front 7 as well, but lynch and tuitt have pretty much already taken his starting job. also huge to see if te'o comes back. te'o leaving would early would be rough.
so, offense -3 and defense -5. a lot is riding on the the good lucking freshman d-back recruits...