Question for WH

Submitted by El Demonio on

Question for WH:

 

For Michigan football - In three of the last four games, the last play of the game decided the outcome.

 

Has this been a similar run before?

WolverineHistorian

November 15th, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^

I believe 2005.

We beat MSU in overtime with a Garrett Rivas FG on the last play.

The next week, we gave up that long run to Laurence Maroney and Minnesota kicked a field goal to win on the last play. (I think it was the last play)

The next week, Henne to Manningham on the final play against Penn State.

The next week, we win in OT against Iowa - Jerame Jackson on the final play.



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Red is Blue

November 15th, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^

My extensive research (one quick Google search) shows that there is around a 50% chance that a team scores in one play from IU and Minnie last play field position. So we won on two essentially coin flips, but lost on an absolute fluke. Expanding on the OP's point, the game is probably decided on the last play more than we realize (ie last play probably tevlchnicaaly decices any game with led less than a touchdown). But, many of those plays have really low odds for the team losing. This was the case in the MSU game except the low odds team drew to an inside straight.

Red is Blue

November 15th, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^

My extensive research (one quick Google search) shows that there is around a 50% chance that a team scores in one play from IU and Minnie last play field position. So we won on two essentially coin flips, but lost on an absolute fluke. Expanding on the OP's point, the game is probably decided on the last play more than we realize (ie last play probably tevlchnicaaly decices any game with led less than a touchdown). But, many of those plays have really low odds for the team losing. This was the case in the MSU game except the low odds team drew to an inside straight.

HarbaughToKolesar85

November 15th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^

Does anyone else feel like we are playing with house money at this point? I want us to win the next 2 games badly but... Let's be honest. If anyone had said that our defense would pitch 3 shutouts and we would be 2 wins away from either A) a New Year's Six Bowl game or B) A chance to play in Indy for the B1G Title before the season we would have probably looked at them sideways. Especially when we consider all of the close games we've played. Yes, we all wanted it but most people thought we'd win around 8 games all season. Hail Harbaugh!