QB Winning Percentage

Submitted by jamiemac on October 26th, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Chad Henne was the QB for MICH for 4 years. Win percentage as starter, 70.2%

Denard is in his 3rd season as starting QB for MICH. Win percentage as starter,  69.6%

Just think those numbers are interesting.

Go Blue, Beat Nebraska

Comments

QVIST

October 26th, 2012 at 11:32 AM ^

That's a crazy stat. Lloyd really lost a lot of games he should have won. (with that said, this conference just isn't the same. BIG TENNN!)

MikeCohodes

October 26th, 2012 at 11:36 AM ^

Did you excise the games that Henne missed from injury his senior season?  As well as any games Denard missed in the past 3 years?  Likewise, did you add his record in for his freshman season when he was filling in for Tate?

jamiemac

October 26th, 2012 at 11:41 AM ^

I excised the ND, PSU and Minny games from 2007 out of Henne's record. I was at those games, he didnt play, let alone start. I left in Wisco 2007, maybe unfairly, but included NW 2007, just as unfairly. So I figure that 1-1  was a wash

Since taking over as starter in 2010, Denard has not missed a start. So there isnt anything to take out.

And, as for 2009, he didnt make any starts and only played QB for a play here or a play there. He was not the QB that season.It wouldnt make sense to include those.....

jg2112

October 26th, 2012 at 11:43 AM ^

Oh yeah, Minnesota in 2007. Heck, I was at that game. Didn't Carlos Brown have an 80-yarder in that game?

Another terrible redshirt decision. He could've had a redshirt for 2008 had he not played against Northwestern.

MikeCohodes

October 26th, 2012 at 11:51 AM ^

Denard:  For 2009 I was wondering specifically about the Iowa game and his interceptions that potentially cost us a shot at a comeback in that game if that game was included or not.  Also for 2010 if you removed the U of I game because although he started he did not finish and Tate led us to the victory.

Henne: Those were the games I was thinking of there.

 

Thanks for clarifying and good work on the forum topic!

jamiemac

October 26th, 2012 at 11:56 AM ^

I had forgotten the nuances of that 2009 Iowa game. I didnt even consider that or anything from that season.

I'll keep the 2010 ILL game in the Denard win column. He had over 300 yards of offense through 3 quarters. I feel UM wins that game in regulation if Denard played the 4Q

E-pinion, tho

joeyb

October 26th, 2012 at 12:05 PM ^

We're talking about starts. Denard didn't come in until the 4th quarter for the Iowa game. Denard has started every game he's been here outside of his freshman year, so that 2010 ILL game still counts as a win as a starter.

I'm a little fuzzy on Henne's 2007 season, but he started both of the first two losses. I remember Mallett had the 97-yard TD pass against Wisconsin, but I don't remember who started that game. I know Henne also started the OSU game.

jg2112

October 26th, 2012 at 11:42 AM ^

IIRC, he only sat out the Penn State and Wisconsin games in their entirety, one win, one loss. It doesn't change the number much at all.

Denard has missed no games the past 3 years. He didn't start any in 2009, and further, he didn't play enough in any game in 2009 to warrant saddling him with a W or L (honestly, you want to talk curious redshirt burnings, Denard in 2009 is up there with Brandon Graham in 2006, Will Campbell in 2009 and Marvin Robinson in 2010 that I find intriguing).

jamiemac

October 26th, 2012 at 11:46 AM ^

He didnt play at all in the 2007 0-2 UM vs 0-2 ND game. That was all Malletsaurus Rex. I'd point out Minny, but I've already jogged your memory.

And, yes, Carlos Brown broke off a huge run and, if you recall, MICH fell into a 10-0 hole thanks to some sloppy fumbling from the future Arky QB

DefenseWins

October 26th, 2012 at 11:36 AM ^

While simplistic and ignoring other factors, I think this is a stat that QBs should be judged on more often.  It is the ultimate argument for our favored son, Tom.  He used to just win, no matter what the statistical production showed.  I do believe in being a "winner".

And you're so right about Lloyd.  With the talent we had, those 4-loss seasons really were frustrating.

bluewave720

October 26th, 2012 at 11:40 AM ^

Since this is a thread titled "QB Winning Percentage," I feel the need to interject a stat I find amazing.  Only 4 times in the history of Michigan football have the Wolverines beat all four of their rivals in one season (OSU, ND, MSU and Minn).

John Navarre was the last Michigan QB to hit 100% wins against that lineup (2003).

What can I say, I have always had a soft spot in my heart for our senior QBs.

snarling wolverine

October 26th, 2012 at 7:45 PM ^

Only 4 times in the history of Michigan football have the Wolverines beat all four of their rivals in one season (OSU, ND, MSU and Minn).

Well, that has something to do with the fact that we haven't played all four teams in the same season all that often. We've only played ND 40 times, most of them coming in the last quarter-century, and Minnesota has rotated off our schedule a couple of times during that time.

jg2112

October 26th, 2012 at 11:39 AM ^

Interesting juxtapositions no doubt.

Would Henne have gone 11-2 last year?

Would Denard have gone 11-2 in 2006?

We'll never know, but I think the answer would probably be "yes" to both situations.

Either way, those numbers prove but one thing:

neither of these QBs can compare to Elvis Grbac (winning percentage: 78%, undefeated as a senior).

WolverineHistorian

October 26th, 2012 at 12:11 PM ^

For figuring out winning % in college football, tie games are considered half a win.  I don't know if you want to do that with Grbac's stats but that's how it's done for teams themselves.

But again, leaving games early can play a major factor.  Grbac was knocked out of the Ohio State game early in the second quarter.  OSU was trying to break a 4 game losing streak to us and when Grbac had to leave the game, I believe my dad's exact words were, "Merry fucking Christmas, Buckeyes." 

If Grbac plays the whole game, we get the win and Hebrstreit doesn't get credit for leading OSU to a glorious tie.  Although, if we win that game, John Cooper's contract doesn't get extended so I guess you have to look at the bigger picture.

jamiemac

October 26th, 2012 at 11:52 AM ^

I point these numbers out only to show that under Denard, Michigan's win percentage is basically the same as it was in the immediate 4 years prior to the RR debacle. And it was a 4 -year stretch where we had some program all-timers at several key positions throughout that era. In the present day, michigan is still trying to put that kind of supporting cast back on the field. Not there yet, but getting closer

LSAClassOf2000

October 26th, 2012 at 12:03 PM ^

Another thing that I find interesting is that, if you go back one more quarterback to John Navarre, the drop in terms of winning percentage to Henne (and by extension, to Denard Robinson), is not exactly insurmountable either. Just doing some rough figuring from the stats archive, Navarre's winning percentage as a starter would be about 73% if I did this right, so Robinson may likely end up between the two for career win percentage this season if we do well in the coming weeks.

WolverineHistorian

October 26th, 2012 at 11:52 AM ^

I'm not getting the same winning percentage for Denard that you are.  22 wins in 33 starts = 66% win percentage. 

Regardless, there are a couple "minor" factors that apply to any QB's winning percentage. 

Denard had to work with the worst defense in school history in 2010 and Henne had to work with the most season injuries in school history in 2005.

And injuries to the QB themselves, Henne missed 3 games his senior year.  He also only played 3 plays in the Wisconsin game but gets credit for the loss and he could barely walk against Ohio State but gets credit for the loss.  Denard on the other hand, to my knowledge, couldn't finish 5 of his starts because he left the game with injuries.  One of those games was the triple overtime game against Illinois that was mostly played under Forcier.

Sometimes, the stats can get skewed for a QB (win or lose) simply by being the starter and playing little of the actual game.   

jamiemac

October 26th, 2012 at 12:07 PM ^

I have 7-6, 11-2, 5-2 the last 3 years for Denard starts. 23-10, 69.6

Forcier didnt play most of the 2010 Illinois game. Just the 4Q and OT. Denard had over 300 total yards when he went out. Tate's first play was a TO that turned the game around for Illinois, albeit temporarily. UM wins that game in regulation if he goes the distance. Just my E-pinion, but I dont think its unfair to give Denard the 'W' there

Didnt think it was fair to give Chad the L for Wisco, but I made up for it by giving him the W vs NW. He played the second half, IIRC. Maybe I should take both those games out

WolverineHistorian

October 26th, 2012 at 12:17 PM ^

I missed a win.  Disregard. 

And I went to the triple overtime game against Illinois but the defense looking as bad as it did, I seemed to block out that Denard played more than he did.  But I do remember Forcier knocking Channel 7's Don Shane over on the sideline in the 4th quarter.

M-Wolverine

October 27th, 2012 at 10:06 AM ^

Every loss drastically affects winning percentage. The difference between Denard losing one more this year or two.

But credit wise you're saying all of the following are equal:

Northwestern '07 Henne 18/27 3 Touchdowns; Mallett 5/11

Wisconsin '07 Henne 3/5; Mallett 11/36

Illinois '10 Denard 10/20 3 TDs, 2 Ints; Tate 12/19 2 TDs 1 Int (Denard ran for twice as many yards with 62 but got almost a yard and a half less per carry)

Does Denard deserve credit for Illinois? Probably. (Though winning big if he had stayed in, his interceptions might have kept it close). But you've made playing something over half the production equivalent o playing 5 of 41 passes. Take the Wisonsin loss out and what is Henne's percentage?

Don

October 26th, 2012 at 11:54 AM ^

he (and the team) was burdened with a beaver-waving nimrod for DC along with some questionable defensive assistants. Who knows how things might have gone in 2010 if we'd managed to field even a mediocre defense.

Eh, I just see that I repeated WH's point.

turd ferguson

October 26th, 2012 at 12:09 PM ^

Interesting.

Half-related, I was reading Denard's MGoBlue profile and maybe I'm being stupid, but I do not remember this...

Freshman (2009) ... earned first varsity letter ... played in all 12 games ... saw action at quarterback in 12 games and started one contest at running back ...

... started the Wisconsin (Nov. 14) game at running back and played quarterback, rushing five times for 36 yards and completed a six-yard pass

EQ RC Blue

October 26th, 2012 at 12:09 PM ^

Henne will always be +ed because of his 4-0 Record against MSU, -ed because of his 0-4 record against OSU.  He was 2-2 against ND, right?  One B1G championship (shared, but beat Iowa in the tie-break (head to head) and went to the Rose Bowl.

That's why Denard's legacy will vary greatly depending on the next few weeks.  If we beat OSU and win the B1G, he'll be 2-1 against OSU, 2-1 against ND, have at least one victory over MSU, and have a B1G championship.  He'll be on the level of everyone save a few absolute all-timers.  If he loses to OSU and doesn't win the B1G, he'll be adored but down a notch. 

B-Nut-GoBlue

October 26th, 2012 at 6:40 PM ^

Interesting way to put it all.  Haven't looked at it this way, personally, but it's definitely one way to look at a career record --big games are a big part of what makes College Football so great and a huge factor in many players "legacy's".  Go Denard.  He could also be the first and ONLY two-time BCS Bowl game winner!

Darker Blue

October 26th, 2012 at 12:11 PM ^

as a QB his winning precentage sucked, but when he takes over for Brady Hoke in 2021 he's gonna have the greatest winning precentage in the history of college football Coaches.

Swazi

October 26th, 2012 at 12:11 PM ^

Denard didn't have to face Penn State or Wisconsin the last two years either (unless we biff it and don't face Wisconsin this year in the title game).  But yes, I think overall Chad had a tougher conference to play against.

bronxblue

October 26th, 2012 at 12:20 PM ^

Nice little post.  I would argue that Denard has had it a bit tougher because Henne was never asked to carry the offense the way Denard has, but both were great competitors and the quality of the conferences during their respective tenures are pronounced.