October 15th, 2017 at 9:47 PM ^
Exactly. PSU does not have a good track record against Michigan, including in Beaver Stadium, where we are 6-4, with three of those losses under Rodriguez and Hoke, and two of them very close games.
October 15th, 2017 at 9:16 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 9:17 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 9:22 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 9:25 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 9:42 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 10:01 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 9:57 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 10:05 PM ^
Will turn it into unhappy valley for the local folks.
GO BLUE!!
October 15th, 2017 at 10:07 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 10:17 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 10:47 PM ^
If the team can make it through the game without getting penalized eleventy times for 500 yards then we have fighting chance.
October 15th, 2017 at 10:47 PM ^
If the team can make it through the game without getting penalized eleventy times for 500 yards then we have fighting chance.
October 15th, 2017 at 11:04 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 11:06 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 11:32 PM ^
Take the points.
We are due for a good game, and it is going to be easy to take us lightly.
October 15th, 2017 at 11:35 PM ^
Penn State's offense is based on rhythm and timing.
I actually think the bye week off hurts them more than it helps them. They come out flat and disjointed, and a highly motivated Michigan team punches them in the mouth.
They are shocked, the crowd grows restless, they tighten up and make mistakes, and Michigan pulls out the win.
October 15th, 2017 at 11:44 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 11:43 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 11:53 PM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 11:55 PM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 12:05 AM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 12:11 AM ^
October 15th, 2017 at 11:59 PM ^
IMHO hook is big here. 23-13 PSU is my target score from a cold calculated betting standpoint. Take the points, Michigan covers on the road, and I would not be incredibly surprised if they manage the outright. My last three bets in Michigan games have all been against Michigan (MSU and OSU last year, Indiana this year -- 3/3), but I'm taking Michigan this week.
October 16th, 2017 at 12:06 AM ^
Factoids:
- The largest underdog margin of the Harbaugh era
- Only the fourth underdog margin thus far in JH tenure. JH's record so far is 0-3 (1-2 ATS) as an underdog (Utah and both OSU games, L/L/W ATS)
- Largest underdog margin in any game since the 2014 OSU game (Hoke's denouement, +21.5 pts., W ATS)
- First underdog margin vs. PSU since 2009 in Ann Arbor (RR, +4.5 pts., L ATS)
- Largest underdog margin to PSU since 2008 in Happy Valley (RR, +24.5 pts., L ATS)
October 16th, 2017 at 12:13 AM ^
we don't win this one. Our sack totals have been dwindling the last few weeks and we have given up a few big plays. A night game in Happy Valley, a white Out to boot, scares me.. Hope says we have come up big against PSU more often than not and I was at Michigan Stadium 2006 when Lloyd Carr argued to get two seconds put back on the clock in the final drive and Manningham caught the game winner at the back of the endzone with one second left. We were second to last in scoring in the red zone that year two.
HOPE is a dangerous thing. GO BLUE!!!
October 16th, 2017 at 12:25 AM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 12:36 AM ^
And everything to gain. If we play this way, and Jim shakes up the playbook, we could actually win this one. I admit that I am on the fence in terms of whether I will watch the game live. Because without a good QB in Happy Valley our team could be a trainwreck and there are better things I can do with four hours of my time on a Saturday. It's nearly two grand for me if I do my work or I could use the time for the gym instead. I'll follow these boards and determine what makes sense for me.
October 16th, 2017 at 12:45 AM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 1:00 AM ^
Crass. But it does point out the opportunity cost. Which I often accept because Michigan, projection and memories. I've slipped into this topic before. On other boards it's not an issue. Here, I acknowledge unwelcome. And I apologize for not editing that out. Go Blue!
October 16th, 2017 at 12:59 AM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 7:01 AM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 12:55 AM ^
All we need from O'Korn is to make some passes. I would not count us out due to our D. The secondary is really improved and I think we will hang with PSU fairly tough. Our chance for winning this game will depend on how O'Korn plays. If some how he plays more like the 2nd half of Purdue we will have a chance of winning 27-24.
October 16th, 2017 at 12:55 AM ^
but are we watching the same teams? I've seen a lot of PSU this year and they're the real deal. Even when Barkley was off his game against NW, they found ways to score. Hamilton is good. Their TE is good. Barkley of course. McSorley can actually throw, unlike JOK.Their defense is top-notch this year too. I want to believe. I just don't see it with the QB situation.
October 16th, 2017 at 1:29 AM ^
You have hit it on the head. Without a reliable QB, against a team that will score each quarter despite our superb defense, we will be left unable to catch up with corresponding scores. P-ew is going to score points every quarter. Us not so much. Unless there is some radical revision to our playbook that our QB can manage to execute. I am most unhappy with the likely scenarios.
October 16th, 2017 at 1:15 AM ^
Michigan defense will be the real deal for them. PSU needs a good ass kicking. Look at the upset of top 10 teams by lesser teams than Michigan talent last week. I'm glad their 10 point favorites and looking forward to Nitny Lion tears.
October 16th, 2017 at 7:22 AM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 1:26 AM ^
Penn State should have lost to Iowa. Granted it was on the road, but these guys aren't invincible.
Yeah, we are rightfully underdogs, and as of now, we don't seem to have a QB. So we've got problems. We also have a fantastic defense, and that means we can make a game of it. We will need some breaks, and we need O'Korn or SOMEONE to hit some passes. It doesn't seem like it is a likely win, but it certainly wouldn't be the craziest thing to happen this season, not by a longshot.
October 16th, 2017 at 7:26 AM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 6:58 AM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 8:59 AM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^
I don't bet anymore but back when I did I betted against Michigan plenty of times when I knew they'd lose, especially to o$u. Some might call it being a bad fan but I call it putting money in my pocket. This would be a game where I would take Penn State on the moneyline. Betting on the spread is too risky, especially when those half points are involved.
October 16th, 2017 at 12:28 PM ^
sadly, you are better off going against us than for us...
now, with us getting 10.5 on the road and showing no propensity to lose by more than 7 during the Harbaugh years, I like us this weekend to cover.
jdon
October 16th, 2017 at 1:47 PM ^
And it's not for homerism reasons, I just don't see Penn State being able to win by that kind of margin against Michigan's defense. Obviously turnovers could do it, so it's possible. But my money will be on Michigan +10.5 in a real sludgefart 13-6 type of game.
October 21st, 2017 at 1:52 PM ^
Line's down to 8.5 to 7.5, depending who you're placing your bets with.
October 21st, 2017 at 2:27 PM ^
Yeah, I saw that this morning too. I see a pretty narrow range from 7 to 8.5. This could easily be "Michigan fan money" coming in the day of the game, but I will allow myself to believe it is "sharp money" that actually thinks Michigan might pull the upset. Yeah, it's sharp money. The fix is in... ;-)