Progress and the "if only" moments
I will start this thread by offering a small preface: Though the tone of this thread may dictate otherwise, for the past three years, I have been a relatively staunch Rodriguez supporter. I have generally thought that he has not gotten a fair shot since day one, and that people have been all too quick to criticize the man just because he is something “different” than what most Michigan fans are used to.
With all that being said, I must admit that even though we have seen progress on the field in terms of victories, I’m not convinced that we have seen true progress with the program as a whole. And what is worse, as I read the hundreds of comments on the beloved MGOboard, I have the sinking feeling that many in our fan base are losing touch with reality. Too harsh, you say? Maybe. But, many of the comments I see have had a common theme lately: “what if” or “if only”. Let’s review some of the more popular “If only” moments from the last three years.
2008
- If only Rich had slowly transitioned UM’s offense to the spread, Michigan would have been more equipped offensively and probably could have beat Toledo, Purdue, and Northwestern.
- If only Rich had reached out to more of Lloyd’s players, attrition would have been minimized and a defense that underachieved would have bought in more. Combined, Michigan wins more games.
- If only Scott Shafer would have been competent, a defense that many thought would carry the team in 2008 would have been better.
- If only the offense wouldn’t have been so bad, the defense wouldn’t have had short fields, and thus could have performed better.
- If only our offensive players would have felt more comfortable in the system, they wouldn’t have had as many turnovers.
- If only our special team units didn’t turn the ball over….
- If only we convert a two-point attempt against Utah, we’re tied in the final minutes.
- If only Steven Threet hadn’t thrown an interception in the end zone against Toledo, that game is a W.
- If only we had covered one of the two receivers on Purdue’s hook and ladder, we hang on to win.
- If only there wasn’t a blizzard/monsoon, we would have beat Northwestern.
2009
- If only Tate wouldn’t have gotten banged up.
- If only Michigan’s offense performed all game long the way it did in the final minutes against MSU, Michigan wins easily in regulation.
- If only Rich had played Tate on the final drive against Iowa, we would have upset the Hawkeyes.
- If only Roy Roundtree scores on the long pass at Illinois, Michigan never loses momentum and wins handily.
- If only Michigan held on to their 14 point lead against Purdue…..
- If only Michigan had been ready for an onside kick against Purdue…..
- If only Michgan hadn’t missed a PAT against Purdue…….
2010
- If only Denard doesn’t toss two INT’s in the end zone against MSU, it is a whole different game.
- If only we had a kicker, special teams would help offset the decimated defense.
- If only we could have wrapped up on third down against Iowa, we would have had a chance to tie
- If only Robert Boldin doesn’t get hurt, we are able to beat PSU
- If only we had more depth, we’d be able to compete with elite big ten teams
- And the list goes on…….
Now maybe I went a bit overboard. And some of the “if only” moments are legitimate statements and some could probably never been avoided. But, let's be real people. The bottom line is that we don’t live in a world of ifs. The real world is based on results. And, on the flip side of all of the “if onlys” I listed, there are a handful that went our way (if only Weiss ran out the clock in 09, etc……I could easily present a list of "if only" moments that would lead to a 7-27 record in the last three years.)
At what point does Rich Rodriguez become responsible for not turning these “ifs” into reality? In three years we are 15-20. We are seeing the same special teams breakdowns we saw in year one. We have witnessed 9 games in which Michigan has lost by 17 or more (Lloyd Carr had 3 such games in his entire career). We have an offense that has taken a leap, yet disappears in key moments against quality teams (And let’s be honest, a great deal of that leap is a direct result of Denard) . We have a defense that may very well finish 120th by next week.
Progress? Sure. Enough? I don’t think so. Next year? Potential, but only if Rich can turn these “if only” moments into reality. And to this point, his record speaks for itself.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:18 AM ^
That's a lot of ifs.
I can play this game.
November 22nd, 2010 at 5:18 PM ^
Here's how I see the coaching debate:
We basically have two options:
#1) Rich Rod is brought back...IF...he agrees to letting Brandon and Moeller appoint him a new defensive coordinator, and that defensive coordinator is allowed to hire two of his own defensive assistants (because RR has proven, twice, that he is incapable of putting together a competent defensive staff). The RR assistants lost will be Robinson, Braithwaite, and probably Tall (Gibson becomes full time special teams coach - something else we desperately need - and recruiting coordinator). The defensive staff could potentially look something like this...Mike Trgovac (for example) DC/DL coach, "Trgovac's hire" LB coach, "Trgovac's hire" DB coach.
or
#2) Jim Harbaugh is brought in as the new head coach.
Arguments:
#1) For keeping RR. His offense is great, his defense sucks. If Harbaugh comes in, he's going to have to revamp both the offense and the defense. If RR is kept, and a new defensive staff is brought in, only the defense needs to be revamped. Plus, RR is under contract for another year, and his buyout is pricey. And, of course, Harbaugh angered Lloyd and friends with his academics comments four years ago.
#2) For hiring Harbaugh (my choice). #1) RR's offense isn't that great. It's actually flat out SUCKED against good teams. We were down 24-0 to Wisc, 31-10 to PSU, 35-7 to Iowa, and 31-10 to MSU. Most of the points he's scored against good teams have been scored in garbage time (against prevent defenses). #2) Do we really want a coach who can't be trusted to hire his own defensive assistants? #3) Recruiting. The real reason people were excited about hiring RR was this - his offense at WVU was so great, with 2 and 3 stars, if he comes to Michigan, and starts racking up 4 and 5 star recruits, it's going to be unstoppable. Well, that has not happened. Rich Rod continues to recruit like he's at WVU. And it's sort of a catch-22 situation that might never end. He can't land talented recruits (especially defensively) until his team starts to go to BCS games, and he can't go to BCS games until he starts to land big time recruits. Jim Harbaugh, on the other hand, is one of the best recruiters in the entire nation and would really be able to jump start things here. #4) MICHIGAN MAN. RichRod simply doesn't portray Michigan values. If Bo was still alive, he'd be slapping the sh!t out of him after all of these excuse-filled press conferences. "We're too young, we've had too many injuries, Vince Lombardi couldn't win with this kind of talent, etc...etc...etc...". Rich Rod has yet to man up and accept any responsibility whatsoever. He just blames it all on his players!? How about..."I need to do a better job recruiting, I need to do a better job preparing young players and backups, I need to do a better job putting together effective schemes, It ultimately all comes back to me." That's exactly what Bo/Moeller/Lloyd would have said. Never in a million years would they have blamed the players publicly. Never in a million years should a coach blame his players like RR has done time and time again. #5) Jim Harbaugh's just a better coach, in every aspect. We can't think short-term here. We need to be thinking about 5-10 years down the line. Sure, RR might be a better coach for this team NEXT season. But we need to be thinking long term here. #6) Everything Harbaugh said about our academics was TRUE, and Lloyd hates everybody anyways - that's why he was asked to leave the athletic department (and I have a very reputable source that verifies that).
#7) And I'm making this seperate because it's so important - It's NOW OR NEVER FOR HARBAUGH. He's going to be getting some major offers this off-season (NFL, Georgia, etc.). He almost took the KANSAS job last season, for crying out loud. He IS going to be leaving Stanford after this season. And once he signs a major deal with a major program, he's no longer going to be interested in us. So...if RR ends up not working out (which is very likely) and Harbaugh is no longer interested...who in the he!! are we going to hire!? Miles/Ferentz/Schiano already turned us down. English!? DeBord!? Hoke!? Trgovac!? These are, honestly, going to be our best options if Harbaugh's not interested. In which case, we'll be COMPLETELY SCREWED.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:04 AM ^
Seriously
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:17 AM ^
Good to have you back!
November 22nd, 2010 at 3:23 PM ^
I've just been drunk all weekend
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:26 AM ^
Where do you live? Make sure you leave the front door unlocked and the alarm off between 4 and 5 am on Thursday. Also, I'd appreciate if any dogs or other pets are locked in the basement. See you then,
Fuzzy
November 22nd, 2010 at 2:58 PM ^
What happened to your points? Who did you offend?
November 22nd, 2010 at 3:26 PM ^
The new "douchebag on a power trip" mod who apparently thinks it's appropriate to delete anything that I had up on the blog pertaining to my ticket to the game this past weekend. And then slap me with a 9k (approximate) Neg banging.
<br>
<br>No warning no nothing. If he had said "don't post your tickets again" I wouldn't have (which um isn't even against the rules).
<br>
<br>I've had my posts deleted off the ticket spreadsheet and the ticket sticky thread. Yet I'm the one at fault. It's a joke.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:05 AM ^
We all know that UM has had a rough few years under RR. The team has gotten better each year he has been here, and based on our youth, there is every reason to think that we will continue to get better over at least the next two years. That is pretty much undeniable.
November 22nd, 2010 at 2:37 PM ^
I agree. This doesn't mean that we can't be concerned about what is going on, however, we have been improving and a young team is HIGHLY likely to get better over time. These kids are working hard and I have no doubt the coaches are all working hard. They're not contemplating when their next golf trip is going to be. Everyone involved with the program seems hell bent on making this team a successful one. This seems to go unnoticed but I'm confident it will pay dividends in the off season.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:07 AM ^
if if, ands, and buts were candy and nuts we would all have a merry christmas.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:07 AM ^
if only we weren't forced to start 3 freshmen in the secondary.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:09 AM ^
I will not rest until these "if only" moments are turned into "thank god" moments by Harbaugh.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:20 AM ^
/sarcasm?
Maybe?
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:27 AM ^
But yes.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:44 AM ^
I thought you were serious.
If there isn't some move to see if Jim would come here, we're fools plain and simple. Rich might win here, but Harbaugh has proven to be such a superior football coach/program builder/recruiter to Rich over the last 3 seasons, that arguing about it is laughable. Look at the ratings of the players on our roster in the fall of 08 and the ratings of the players Harbaugh inherited in 07.
Throw in the fact that he loves this school and is a famous heroic alum, and the opportunity couldn't be more gift-wrapped.
If it is definite no, keep riding the hope train and see if eventually the Rodriguez plan can get us by teams we used to kick the hell out of. Maybe, but maybe not too. Pretty darn frightening to think we don't know.
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:05 AM ^
Even if Harbaugh said he was willing to come here...my question is: Are you willing to lower expectations again and sit through 2-3 years of less than great football until he gets his type of players into the system? Denard isn't built for Harbaugh's system, neither is Tate or Devin for that matter. I'm not attacking your comment, I'm just asking. Any change at he HC position right now scares me because it will feel like we are becoming Notre Dame, as well as completely changing offensive schemes...again. I like Harbaugh, but the change is what scares me.
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:16 AM ^
I agree that we are in a tough spot, and again, despite the tone of my thread, I don't necessarily think Rich should get the boot no matter what.
But, we cannot let Rich Rod's failure to provide a smooth transition prevent us from making a move that will improved the program in the long run. Now, we can debate who is best for the program in the long run, Harbaugh or Rod, but I think that is really what it comes down to.
In my opinion, if we can get Harbaugh, we have to make the switch. If Jim is not available, then I don't think we can afford to make a change with who would be available for reasons you have pointed out.
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:28 AM ^
Denard isn't built for Harbaugh's system, neither is Tate or Devin for that matter.
Do you really think that Tate isn't built for Harbaugh's system? If so, why did Harbaugh offer him a scholarship to Stanford??? These sky-will-fall fears are not a reason to stick with RR. They're factually inaccurate.
November 22nd, 2010 at 12:39 PM ^
Andrew Luck is listed as 6' 4" and 235 pounds. Devin Garnder is listed as 6' 4" and 210 pounds. Not a huge difference, especially since Gardner is two years younger.
If a transition were to take place, I don't think that it would be nearly as painful as the last one. My biggest concern would still be on the defensive side of the ball. I think that Harbaugh could take this current offensive roster and still put up 30+ point per game next year. He might need to modify what he ultimately wants to do (imagine that) until he gets the guys that he wants in place (more tight ends!) but he'd still be successful offensively in the short term.
November 22nd, 2010 at 1:34 PM ^
The LACK of change to return to what we've been for decades, should truly scare you.
November 22nd, 2010 at 7:19 PM ^
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:14 AM ^
so are you. You realize Rich Rodriguez had the same reputation for building programs when he was at West Virginia, right? What was WVU before he got there? A coach needs time to get his players in a program, especially one that is so much different as Rich's is and in a league that is as tough as the Big Ten.
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:36 AM ^
What was WVU before he got there?
They were 7-5 in the (arguably) worst major conference in the nation.
7-5. The same record we'll have three years into his tenure here (assuming we win our bowl games) and still two games worse than we were before he got here. The "hope train" is run by a company called, "False".
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:40 AM ^
I have made the same argument that you have regarding Rich Rod and only having a few upperclassmen that are "his" recruits. Trust me, I have even gone as far as breaking down other big ten units and their experience, etc, etc.
But... the Big East is a joke. This Michigan team would likely be the Big East Champion this year. I have never been a hug proponent of "the spread doesn't work in the Big Ten" argument, but clearly the Big East is not the Big Ten.
I also won't pretend the Pac-10 is stupendous, but Harbaugh has had to play USC and Oregon year-in, year-out and has built a great program.
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:58 AM ^
Yah and along with that program building rep he had his look at the turnaround in the second year rep. Thats all we heard through 08 was his first year is always bad but look at the 2nd year he is a winner. Then there was 09 we won 2 more games and we heard oh just wait. Well here we are still waiting. I am not saying he needs to go I am just saying I am sick of hearing about just wait this guy is great just wait give him time. We have heard it sometime he has to do it.
November 22nd, 2010 at 1:31 PM ^
FINALLY THERE IS HOPE HERE ON THIS BOARD. AMEN, NATE.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:12 AM ^
This year we won every close game that we played. We had the good fortune of Notre Dame losing its starting QB (who destroyed us when he was in) for almost a half, and otherwise would have likely lost that game. We won a coin flip against Illinois. We were an onsides kick away from losing to a I-AA team. We beat Indiana thanks to a last minute jump ball. Our losses, on the other hand, were clear-cut losses. We could just as easily be 4-7 or 5-6 right now, and Rodriguez's firing would be a foregone conclusion.
All of which is to say that, maybe we shouldn't be worrying about "what-ifs" this year, since the what-ifs weighed massively in our favor.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:22 AM ^
Yea, but you're forgetting we've been playing undermanned all season. We had the "good fortune" of ND losing Crist, but they also had the good fortune, like everyone else has this year, of playing against a secondary with 2 guys who played wide receiver last year and a slew of freshmen.
This is why I think it's silly to play this game, you can go back and forth all day. All you can do is look at the results and go from there.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:27 AM ^
This was exactly my point. Over the past three years we hear the same "if only" comments. In the end, the results are all that matter. To me, those results are unacceptable.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:39 AM ^
You at least have to type it in all caps.
UNACCEPTABLE!!!1!!!!!
November 22nd, 2010 at 1:10 PM ^
The results are: 3 wins, 5 wins, and 7+ wins. So let's fire Rod b/c we think we can do even better.
The only way I think it would be smooth is with Harbaugh. Even though there is no guarantee he would do well at Michigan at all, and the churn in coaches would cost us dearly, everyone sees him as a savior right now so he could get into the system and people wouldn't be as negative about it as when Rod came here. We would probably keep many of Rod's recruits and Harbaugh could bring a few with him. And Rod will have a nice young core with depth for Harbaugh (freshmen, sophomores are there as opposed to the 2009 and 2010 senior classes which were small with little depth).
But, once again, there's no guarantee Harbaugh would do well with everything Rod places before him. We've had improvement in 2009 and 2010, what's to say we won't in 2011? Just saying, glad I'm not personally the one pulling the trigger to fire Rod.
November 22nd, 2010 at 2:15 PM ^
WHY would a "churn in coaches" cost us dearly, especially if you think Rod's woes are due to youth? Surely Harbaugh would have this up and coming youth at his disposal. You cannot have it both ways.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:31 AM ^
Our being undermanned is not a "what if," its a product of what our team is -- no depth, no experience. You might as well say "what if" we had the 1997 defense?
"What ifs" tend to refer to things extrinsic to the basic set-up of a team, that could swing the result of an individual game or two. I.e., from an Illinois perspective, "what if Junior Hemingway didn't catch that ridiculous rebound in the second overtime," not "what if Michigan had depth and experience in the secondary."
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:43 AM ^
Comparing my comment to "what if we had the 97 defense" is a major stretch. I'm referring to injuries and attrition. I see plenty of times where people use the excuse of "what if our QB didn't get hurt, we'd have won so many more games!" (i.e. Lions). So I don't see how you can say this isn't applicable here.
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:18 AM ^
All teams have injuries. We have not had any injuries greater than normal, certainly nothing comparable to what Penn State/Purdue have suffered. If our injuries have had a greater effect on us, it is a function of our lack of depth, which is a problem inherent with the team. And it's not like we suffered injuries at a key position like QB that have directly affected the result of any particular game. What game, for example, would we have won if Martin was 100% healthy rather than 60%?
Attrition is certainly not a "what if" -- the fact that so many of our players have chosen to leave the program is an essential problem with the team, one that can't be dismissed as a mere bad break. That's like dismissing bad recruiting as a "what if" -- "if only we had recruited 6 5-star defensive players in Rodriguez's first year."
November 22nd, 2010 at 1:18 PM ^
We could say, What if Lloyd would have recruited more cornerbacks/safeties for us? The senior class in 2009 was small and the secondary was suspect then. This year the senior class was small and no depth in cornerbacks (Woolfolk not counted as depth since he was a starter who got injured).
So, I would blame Rod completely, he could have recruited more on defense early in his tenure, but the same goes for Lloyd in this example. We just don't have fantastic defensive seniors and/or depth from him.
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:16 AM ^
I had not clicked this blog link.
If only my quick pick lottery ticket had been correct........
November 22nd, 2010 at 10:22 AM ^
If only we had gone for two against State last year and won that game. Just imagine being 5-0 with a win over Sparty. We probably win the Purdue game and finish 7-5.
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:00 AM ^
after that last play, with no time outs there is no chance in going for 2
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:05 AM ^
I have followed this blog for years and really enjoyed all of the inside information on Michigan football that it has provided. I have never joined or posted until today because I basically just enjoyed reading it. I do feel however that the mood around here seems to have gone from a pro Michigan blog first to a pro Rich Rod blog first. It seems like people that have genuine concerns right now are just hammered on here for their apparent lack of intelligence. I'm not sure that is a sensible thing to do at this point. I really want Rich Rod to succeed and especially beat the crap out of OSU this week but I am starting to have some concerns as well. I hope the Rich Rod or else crowd around here is prepared to support whatever happens in the next few months if things don't go their way. It would be unfortunate to see this blog suffer because some people put one coach above the program. I assume I will now be negged for this or banned or something. Either way, GO BLUE! BEAT OSU!
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:32 AM ^
It's been pro-RR over pro-Michigan for some time now. It's just gotten nastier of late, with plenty of "douchebag", "idiot", "asshole" and "STFU" for those who would dare tarnish His name.
The blog will be fine though. Eventually, the angry RR-supporters will revert back to being Michigan supporters first. Alas, this is the MGoBubble, where RichRod is just one excuse away from history...and those who would question Him are "douchebag, asshole, idiot trolls".
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:35 AM ^
we need Bo to give us a "the program" speech
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:41 AM ^
But I still believe the majority of the fans here are for the best of Michigan. Look there is absolutely no guarantee that success comes by changing coaches. The same can be said for keeping RR. But most people look at it using a cost-effective analysis and see that right now maybe the risks of another coaching transition outweigh the risks of keeping him on. And add that there is a very very small amount of coaches at programs like Michigan that get canned after 3 years.
These are things that I think about. I don't necessarily love Rodriguez but seriously, who else is there? All the people that argue that a coaching change and bringing in Harbaugh is the answer...that's just guessing too.
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:48 AM ^
We can't keep a coach only out of fear for change. That's Lions thinking. Hell, there are multiple threads here demanding an extension for RR. That's 100% Lions thinking. It is clear (to most...although not on this board) that RR is deeply flawed as our coach. He might be great somewhere else, but it hasn't worked here as well as needed. Minnesota might be thrilled with his results, but we aren't Minnesota.
You say that very few coaches would be canned after three years...Well, what if that coach produced the worst tenure in the history of the winningest program in the history of the game?
November 22nd, 2010 at 12:26 PM ^
You have it all backwards. Go back and listen to Dave Brandon speech at the Crain's Detroit Business Club from last week. He particularly references that quick coaching changes is what decimated the Lions.
You know we have some examples here in our professional programs here in Detroit where...we keep firing coaches, you know. How's that doing? How's that doing, you know? Is that a road to success? Let's just keep firing coaches, cus we'll always have somebody to blame when we're disappointed.
Sorry to break it to you but this is the perspective of the guy who's going to make the decision. Pucker up and hope that he knows what he's doing because none of us really have an answer to what we should do. Even Brandon's decision is difficult but you can't just fire coaches when you're disappointed.
And your whole comment about the winningest program...that's entitlement. Fact of the matter is that this was going to happen at some point whether we liked it or not. Fairy tales dont go on forever. And to judge someone over a short 3 year tenure who has actually made some measurable progress (albiet not what we Michigan fans are entitled to!!! /s) is unfair, particularly for a job like this.
November 22nd, 2010 at 1:00 PM ^
Get ready for the HUGE difference between college and pro football. In pro football, the team is assembled by the GM, Matt Millen, who should have been fired but was given an extension. Instead, he scapegoated his head coaches. In college football, the team is assembled by the head coach, RR, who (if he doesn't beat OSU) should be fired. So far, RR has scapegoated his DC's.
You demand "fair". The definition will vary for all, but I think getting paid millions to put a suitable product on the field within 3 years is very fair.
November 22nd, 2010 at 2:24 PM ^
Ok I'll give you the differences between pro and college football....however how can you explain how this program won't disintegrate into Notre Dame territory? If there's any program in the country that resembles Michigan the closest it's Notre Dame. Isn't firing Rich after 3 seasons the M.O. of the Domers? I think a large segment of the "pro RR" segment of the fanbase is more concerned with becoming Notre Dame than anything else.
November 22nd, 2010 at 2:51 PM ^
You can't possibly be suggesting that things would have been A-OK for ND if they'd just given Davie, Willingham and Weis more time. Those were flat-out bad hires.
USC fired Paul Hackett after three seasons. That didn't turn them into ND. They hired Pete Carroll, and became a juggernaut.
Florida fired Ron Zook halfway through his third season. That didn't turn them into ND. They hired Urban Meyer and won two national championships.
Believe it or not, firing a coach does not automatically turn a program into a nuclear wasteland. It often works out for the best. If after three years, our coach has only matched Tim Brewster's Big Ten record (6-18), it may be time for a change.
November 22nd, 2010 at 3:35 PM ^
Rodriguez's records and team have improved steadily over the past three years and has a team full of young players who will likely get better. This is a coach that needs some tweeks in staff (defensive) and more time, not a disaster coach like Hackett, Zook (I wouldn't even call him a disaster), and the various ND coaches.
Paul Hackett's teams got steadily worse. Also, USC took 3 coaches to regain the prominence they had previously with McKay (and Robinson)...Carroll's hire was not some quick fix for the program. Hackett's previous gig before USC was a terrible HC run at Pitt.
Ron Zook had zero college head coaching experience after taking over for Spurrier nonetheless a track record of success at a BCS conference, and his record got worse over 3 years.
It's not just firing a coach after 3 years, it's firing a coach who is steadily improving and has a track record of success in a major conference, after only 3 years. Neither Zook, Hackett, nor Davie (who had FIVE years) could say the same. If you're going to give a coach the benefit of the doubt for another year or two, it's a coach like Rodriguez.