Preseason Kenpom is up, Michigan is #32

Submitted by Human Torpedo on

Number #17 rated offense, and #55 rated defense. Also kinda surprised MSU is only #10, but I guess that goes to show how effective the hype machine in East Lansing has been trying to make a team that went 20-15 last year into a juggernaut now

smwilliams

October 31st, 2017 at 12:39 PM ^

Interesting. So according to KenPom, there's three tiers in the Big 10:

Tier 1: Sparty

Tier 2: Purdue/Northwestern

Tier 3: Wisconsin/Michigan/Minnesota/Penn State(!)/Maryland

 

MGlobules

October 31st, 2017 at 1:05 PM ^

in how this thing works now. Belein teams are like great jazz quintets--they take time to gel. Everybody undersells them; they struggle early and come on late. The haters always get theirs in the end. 

I expect this season, with all the new guys, to be this and more in spades. By early December Beilein will be over the hill, again. 

The Man Down T…

October 31st, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^

Seen this movie over and over.  November:  Hey not too bad against a weak schedule.  December after losing a couple:  Jeeze we're not a good team.  Why can't he recruit?  Why does he autobench?  Where is our fucking defense??  January:  Unless we fire Beilein and get a modern coach, we'll never win a tournament game again, IF we even get there.  February: A win streak.  Wow we even beat xxxx.  That was incredible.  I KNEW we'd be great!  Beilein is awesome.  We're lucky to have him!  He's does this without bagmen!  ALL HAIL THE GREAT BEILEIN!!  March short run:  Ugh, fire Beilein.  He can't recruit the bigs we need.  March deep run:  OMG our team is the best!  Our coach makes us proud!  I can't wait to see how they develop next year!!!!!

 

Get ready for the tourettes conventions known as the "Game Threads" this season.   And yes, we love every minute of it lol    :) 

Tate

October 31st, 2017 at 12:48 PM ^

Semi-unrelated to the OP, but I guess this thread can be all basketball discussion.

My Hot Take for the season: Isaiah Livers will be starting over Duncan Robinson by seasons end.

What's yours?

 

BP3

October 31st, 2017 at 1:40 PM ^

I think Duncan will start in the beginning, but Isaiah will take the starting spot farily early into the season. He provides so much more overall to the team than Duncan. Also, I think the way Robinson plays is more cut out for being an impact sub off the bench. Livers has a more complete package to offer the team. I also heard Robinson started against Toledo in the closed scrimmage, but Livers played a lot at the 4 spot. From what I have heard, Livers should be the freshman that makes the biggest impact this year. 

ReegsShannon

October 31st, 2017 at 2:10 PM ^

Livers being good enough to take that starting job would be enormous for this team. The two biggest question marks on this team are point guard offense and power forward defense. Livers starting and pushing Robinson back to the bench role he had last year would be incredible for this team's outlook.

TrueBlue2003

October 31st, 2017 at 4:08 PM ^

is interior defense/rim protection. i.e. can Wagner or anyone else do anything there?  That's the reason he was benched for much of the end of last season.  He was flat out bad and DJ was much better with rim protection.

So I'd lump together power forward and center defense into "can we protect the rim at all?"

I'm actually quite confident PG offense will be pretty good if another question is answered positively: Will Mathews be able to shoot well enough to keep defenses honest?  If guys can sag off him to help on the pick and roll, it'll make Simmons and Wagners job that much more difficult.  All indications are that he's shooting well.

TrueBlue2003

October 31st, 2017 at 4:26 PM ^

chance that Livers can be useful with rim protection or that Wagner has improved to be better than terrible, or even that Teske is good enough that we can play him 15-20 min a game with Wagner moving the four for some of those minutes.

By yeah, probably not much rim protection, unfortunately. And if not, that puts the ceiling on our defense at 50th or so in the country, which is a tough place to start.  And yeah, if Duncan has to play the wing for 30 minutes a game, we'll be in the 100s nationally.

AA Forever

October 31st, 2017 at 3:08 PM ^

and sooner rather than later. Duncan Robinson starting and playing around 30 minutes a game is a weakness at the level we want to compete..it means a very soft lineup, physically. He's just fine coming off the bench and backing up the 3/4 for 15-20 minutes a game, but he is not a starting level 4 in the top tier of the Big Ten.

FlintLivesMatter

October 31st, 2017 at 1:38 PM ^

Honestly dont know what to expect from this team. Excited to see how wagner does after a great tourny run

TrueBlue2003

October 31st, 2017 at 4:12 PM ^

He had one great half against Louisville (and it was definitely incredible).  Didn't even play barely against OSU (14 min) and was awful in just 24 min against Oregon.  Whether he improved his consistency and defense is a huge question mark for this year.

Bambi

October 31st, 2017 at 1:58 PM ^

Glad to see some basketball discussion since I was just watching highlights from last year.

32 seems reasonable to start. The only returning known quantities are MAAR, Duncan and Wagner and all three have limitations.

Duncan is what he is, MAAR and Wagner need some improvements. MAAR needs to maintain his efficiency with higher usage, Wagner needs to be more consistent offensively and show at least marginal improvement defensively.

Everything else is question marks, the biggest being PG, Matthews and Livers. At PG Simmons and Simpson need to combine to be 2/3-3/4 the player Walton was. Matthews needs to be the slashing, defensive stopper he's said to be and also have a respectable outside shot. Livers is not as important but if he's good enough to start over Duncan, it makes us a lot better, especially defensively.

If all that happens we're like last year's team, a Sweet 16 team that could go farther depending on how hot we are in tourney time. If they all don't we could be like 2 years ago and struggle to make the tourney. I'm also especially interested to see how the D does without Donlon.

Unfortunately I'm buying the MSU hype as well. They should be legit.

AA Forever

October 31st, 2017 at 3:14 PM ^

Insofar as we don't know who will be getting the most minutes, but our floor is probably fairly high there no matter who plays how much. Will anyone be as good as Walton down the stretch? Probably not, but whoever plays backup will likely be better than Simpson last year.

TheRonimal

October 31st, 2017 at 2:17 PM ^

Pretty much agree with most that this looks like a typical JB team. There’s some question marks. The team might start out slow but I think we’ll see a solid team by the end of the year. Can’t wait to see how Matthews looks, how Wagner has improved, and what we have at PG.

GordonG

October 31st, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^

motivates the kids a ton...

..we'll be fine, I see us finishing 3rd or 4th in league play with a 6  NCAA seeding.

Izzo/ sparty is over-hyped once again... setting up for another failure.

bronxblue

October 31st, 2017 at 2:32 PM ^

That sounds about right.  I suspect the defense will be a bit better than expected and the offense a bit worse.  But I also assume the team will improve as the season progresses, especially as guys like Matthews and Simmons get themselves integrated into the Beilein system.

TrueBlue2003

October 31st, 2017 at 4:20 PM ^

re: defense and offense.  I just don't think anyone realizes how much we're going to miss DJ's defense, especially with Robinson and Wagner playing a lot of minutes as bigs. Wild cards there are how ready Livers is at the four, whether Wagner has improved his defense, and how good Matthews is on the wing.

On the flip side of that, the offense should be deadly once again if Simmons is as good as he was at Ohio.

champswest

October 31st, 2017 at 2:50 PM ^

Beilein's better squads by year end. I expect it to be the most aggressive and one of the deepest. The backups should be pushing the starters for minutes all year long.