Predictions for UM-Iowa

Submitted by I Wrote a 4 Wo… on October 9th, 2009 at 1:37 AM

I know given in crappiness that was losing last week, there was a thread within a thread with predictions for "next week" to kind of move on, but now that we have an injury report and we've had time to settle down, what is your prediction?

My original prediction, last Saturday, was Michigan 34, Iowa 20.

I'm actually going to change that but I'm still feeling the upset. I say...

Michigan 31
Iowa 24

Comments

jml969

October 9th, 2009 at 1:52 AM ^

tonight with sore throat. Maybe it's the fever, but I'm banking on the upset:

MICHIGAN 27
IOWA 24

Guess I'll be watching the game in solitude to prevent the spread of my germs!

dundee

October 9th, 2009 at 2:17 AM ^

ok guys neg if you need to, but lets be honest with what we are working with here. molk is still out, so the line will be questionable. let's not even start on the defense. C brown is out, so there goes the experienced change of pace guy to minor rage. we still have a true freshman qb in only his 2nd road game and his first night game. despite the late 4th quarter heroics by tate, the best i can comfortably call this game and be totally honest with myself and the way we have been playing is Iowa 27, Mich 17. sorry guys!

Blueisgood

October 9th, 2009 at 3:07 AM ^

UM needs to come out and get a 2 score lead and make stanzi throw. He has horrible accuracy. If they can get out front make him throw and get some turnovers then Mich is in business. They need to come out firing. This is a hard one to figure out since Iowa has let crappy teams stay in the game, and then they go and beat penn st. What michigan team is going to show up and who are they going to have at corner opposite warren. I see a 5 point ball game going either way.

BlueinLansing

October 9th, 2009 at 3:31 AM ^

they won't win, just like last weekend.

Just watch the oline in the first couple series, if it looks like the Indiana and MSU games, then it could be a long night in need of Tate heroics.........if it looks like ND, we're in bidness.

tomhagan

October 9th, 2009 at 4:54 AM ^

I dont like making predictions anymore...because I am usually wrong... like most people are lol. I guess it is human nature to try to be Nostradamous, but in reality very few of us really know anything about the future, let alone the future of others.

Anyway...that said, I have a feeling that Michigan is going to play very well under the lights in Iowa City. I see the offense and Tate moving the ball well and the defense playing better than what would be expected. It will be a close game decided by turnover but I think...Michigan has a great shot in this one.

Tater

October 9th, 2009 at 9:01 AM ^

I have had this one pencilled in as a loss since camp, but I also had MSU as a win. They lost to a team they should have been able to beat last week, so they now have to beat a team to which they should lose. Iowa is as good a place as any to do that. Besides, who am I to argue with "Nostradamus."

UM 28, Iowa 26 with four field goals.

4godkingandwol…

October 9th, 2009 at 4:59 AM ^

Michigan. Tate leads a last second drive, thus ascending from the third stage of enlightenment to the fourth and ultimate stage, in which he abandons samsara and is fully enlightened.

Just a hunch.

SWFlaBlue

October 9th, 2009 at 6:45 AM ^

Man, it feels great to be able to say that. By this time last year, the fog had set in and we sat back and prepared for the worst.
Now, Tate and the O makes me look forward to each kickoff. Something tells me the running game lights it up, even down Molk and CB, and Tate stretches the field with some occasional biggies.
Blue 35-29.

MWW6T7

October 9th, 2009 at 7:11 AM ^

I am gonna say that a couple costly turnovers by Stanzi will cost them. I like the way our run defense played against MSU and I feel we will be capable of handling the Iowa ground game. This in turn will cause Stanzi to throw more than Ferentz would want an lead to a turnover or two wich will lead to 10 points in our favor. Plus I don't think our secondary is going to be as much of a liability if Kovacs is at safety with his above average run support. I say Mich 27
Iowa 21

3rdGenerationBlue

October 9th, 2009 at 8:09 AM ^

Have a feeling that we may see some different play calling as a result of last week's game. Give credit to RR for pushing himself and his staff to make adjustments. There was speculation that more trick plays were inserted for the MSU game - with an additional week to drill them they may come in handy this week...just no fake punts please. If Michigan scores early and is either leading or tied at the half they will win.

SpreadGuru

October 9th, 2009 at 8:12 AM ^

that the whole game comes down to the running game. If UM can effectively run (think Penn State last year), Tate will make enough plays against an Iowa secondary that is relatively weak in comparison to the front seven. I see Brandon Minor having a HUGE game although I do see Michigan having to throw more than they would like to. Also, with all the attention on UM's running game, look for Koger and Webb to have some decent gainers in the middle of the field.

Defensively, Stanzi should not scare us the way Claussen did. Iowa's conservative approach should be familiar, we had it for 13 years under Lloyd. I think UM will play their best game defensively all season with Martin, Graham and Ezeh having really productive nights.

That being said, the x-factor is Stonum and the return game. Field position will be at a premium and I think UM has an advantage here that puts them over the top. I think Kinnick will be crazy but once again Tate leads a late drive that ends with a FG (the opposite of 1984) and UM wins 20-17

msoccer10

October 9th, 2009 at 8:55 AM ^

underestimate Iowa's defensive backfield because their front seven are so good. They have 10 picks on the year which is 2nd nationally I believe. Also, Iowa has been injured much of the year and this will be the healthiest they have been. I think our run game struggles without Molk and Brown. Tate throws a pair of picks. Our D can's stop their run and Stanzi doesn't throw a pick. This is the best team we have played so far and its not even close. I hope I'm way wrong but 31-17 Iowa

MWW6T7

October 9th, 2009 at 10:47 AM ^

I wouldn't say they are underestimated just that they are not as good as the stats indicate. Those picks are a result of the pressure from the front 7. I just think if you can slow the pass rush down with some screens or quick slants and possibly establish somewhat of a rushing game with some strech plays and give Tate time to throw it will open up their secondary. I do not think they have any shut down corners on the def. Didn't 4 of their picks come in one game. It all begins and ends with controlling the line of scrimage.

[Edit] They had 5 picks against ISU

msoccer10

October 9th, 2009 at 10:51 AM ^

I haven't watched Iowa this year other than highlights and looking at stats. I think our offense has the potential to put up points on anyone. Moosman and the right side of the line have to seriously raise their games for this one. Let's hope we get it done against a formidable foe.

bluebrains98

October 9th, 2009 at 9:15 AM ^

Realistically, Tate is going to be under a lot of pressure all day. Their D-line is likely going to plow through our O-line given what we saw last week. So, the running game will need to be on, and this could potentially be a good game for Denard to see some significant time to keep the Iowa D on their heels. Hopefully, Denard can make some throws too if he does get in there. But, Tate should not expect to be able to hold onto the ball very long. Runs and screens, runs and screens. With a successful running game and quick passes, we win 28-24. If Tate tries to create too much against the Iowa D, we lose.

Erik_in_Dayton

October 9th, 2009 at 9:30 AM ^

Iowa 24, Michigan 13 -- Iowa's strengths play right into Michigan's weaknesses...I think Michigan's best chance would come from forcing Stanzi into mistakes. He's not a very good decision maker...I make these predictions based on my 35-plus years as a coach in the NFL and college.

wolverine1987

October 9th, 2009 at 10:49 AM ^

I thought then (basing this in the impressive performance at PSU). I'm worried about Stanzi turning into a one game superhero against us--when he does make the right decision, he can be very accurate, especially on deep balls. Iowa is better than MSU on both offensive and defensive lines, plus LB's, and IMO match up very well against us. Combine that with home field and I have a tough time predicting victory. Iowa wins 27-17.

michiganfanforlife

October 9th, 2009 at 9:34 AM ^

the improvement on defense last week vs. the run. Putting JT in for Boubacar also helped shore up the corner spot. They are still moving parts around on the defense, and I say give Brandon Smith (the other #4) some reps on D. This will be a big hyped game, and the pressure is on Iowa to win. It's their homecomming game.

It's hard to predict this game, but a safe bet is that it will be close. If it comes down to one drive to win the game, I give us the advantage. Tate is the new Captain Comeback, and this dude wills us to victory with little to no college experience. Just think how good he'll be in three years.

Michigan comes back and wins in the last 5 seconds with a pass to Stonum in the back corner of the endzone. 31-28 Mich wins!!! GO BLUE!!!

Don

October 9th, 2009 at 9:40 AM ^

First, it's a road game in a more hostile environment than they encountered at MSU. The fans are right on top of the benches, and our young players are in for an earful. In its current Molk-less configuration, our offensive line is mediocre at best and is not very physical. Against Iowa's very active and physical DL, it's going to be a struggle to run the ball, and Tate is going to be under great pressure all game long. He will throw a pick or two, which will lead to short-field Iowa scores. Iowa's offense is far from dynamic, but they'll be able to exploit our vulnerabilities at LB and possess the ball.

Iowa 34 UM 17. The only thing keeping the game close will be if Iowa turns the ball over multiple times.

loyalblue15

October 9th, 2009 at 9:46 AM ^

Even in a loss, Forcier is defintiely the real deal. We now have a trend on late-game heroics, not lucky plays. I don't see this one getting out of hand because of Tate's ability to orchestrate a comeback.

Michigan - 34
Iowa - 31

The defense still has issues and we give up 31 points, but Forcier hits Koger with under 2 minutes to go to take the lead for good.

Refoveo

October 9th, 2009 at 9:49 AM ^

I think that first lost inspires Tate to have his best game yet. However, I'm not sure how much the play calling will change b/c of the freezing temp. Iowa beat an overrated psu team who hasn't beaten anybody with a winning record. Iowa's had some close games against teams that shouldn't be on their level so it's not like they’re blowing anybody out. Iowa's okay but not great. If Michigan can hold on to the football (0 turnovers in the second half) Michigan wins 24-14. I think our D finally has a matchup they can work with (I hope).