Predictions for Mich/Sparty bball

Submitted by goblue85 on February 12th, 2013 at 8:26 AM

Michigan returns to action tonight at State 9pm ESPN.  After this stretch we have endured I must say I'm glad its over and coming back for some home games coming up.  This team has played at Ohio, IU, and wisky and looked not great.  This is the fourth game in a very hostile environment.  The key will be hanging around early on and we have a good shot.  The mentality after the deflating loss at Wisky should help us be ready for this street fight.  Hopefully Burke and Hardaway bring the same fire that Novak gave us two years ago that I still always look back and smile.   I think Mich will come ready to play tonight.

 

Michigan 71

State 67

Comments

ijohnb

February 12th, 2013 at 9:13 AM ^

He is a freshman, he will come around, and yayada, but I see him becoming more and more frustrated with the nature of the offense.  This is not a critcism of JB, his offense is what it is but I see it being a hard offense for a wing with Robinson's skill set to get used to.  At least 3 times a game, Robinson needs to get the ball free throw line extended on a wing with a clear out.  Robinson could make somethings happen if given time and space, and we desperately need a player that can command a double team or at least make defenders have to sag.  All of our perimter shots are coming after about 7 high screens and are still contested or off an elaborate series of screens desigend to get a good shot off.  I think GRIII is the answer to a little inside outside and I hope that the coaching staff goes out of their way to get him involved.

The Shredder

February 12th, 2013 at 10:44 AM ^

It all goes back to GRIII skill in dribbling the ball with defensive pressure on him. He isn't confident enough yet to do it. The top Big 10 teams do this well. Something like THJ had to work on and did get better at. I look for major important next year.

ijohnb

February 12th, 2013 at 11:03 AM ^

but at this point, I have to say that I think GR III trying to impact the game and failing is better than him doing nothing.  I know these are pressure cookers that he is playing in, but the big boy pants have to go on soon enough.  He simply cannot be invisible on the floor or they should go with two bigs and limit his minutes.  I am not hating on him, he is going to be a very good player, but we simply need something from the position and he has been flat out invisible for the last month.

Don

February 12th, 2013 at 8:58 AM ^

MSU. We're still too young to get over the hump on the road in a very hostile environment against a good team, as the struggles of Robinson and Stauskas @ OSU, IU and Wisconsin show. As is always the case, the calls will favor the home team, and Morgan is not 100%, if he even plays.

Bosch

February 12th, 2013 at 9:29 AM ^

Everyone likes to paint pictures of roses and rainbows in these prediction threads but we are 0-3 in tough road environments this year.

Our tendancy to not foul seems to be hurting us, as ridiculous as that sounds.  The B1G refs appear to be making a conscious effort to keep the fouls even or, in away games, in favor of the home team.  

The refs will probably let this game be physical, which doesn't really bode well for Michigan.

I don't see Michigan coming out with a victory.  

 

ghost

February 12th, 2013 at 9:57 AM ^

Indiana and OSU both lost at Illinois and we beat Illionois by 14.  MSU lost at Minnesota and we won there.  OSU doesn't visit Minnesota and Indiana and Wisconsin still have to.  Saying we are 0-3 in tough road environments is not correct.

Bosch

February 12th, 2013 at 10:25 AM ^

Illinois is a train wreck.  Northwestern also beat them at home.  They sit behind Purdue in the B1G standings.  They certainly aren't consistent enough to put too much stock in that victory at this point.

And Minnesota?  They are a respectable team, but I wouldn't necessarily call Williams Arena a tough road environment.  Michigan is 6-1 in their last 7 trips there.

turd ferguson

February 12th, 2013 at 10:33 AM ^

Wait, that's not true.  What if he thinks that all five of those places are tough road environments, even if OSU, IU, and Wisconsin are a little tougher than the other two?  In fact, isn't that a totally reasonable belief?

You could probably say that we're 0-3 in our toughest three road games, but winning at Illinois and Minnesota - and doing so comfortably - is something.  Those are "tough road environments."

ghost

February 12th, 2013 at 10:42 AM ^

I did not say at the same level, but Indiana and OSU (who Illinois beat by 19) showed Illinois isn't an easy place to play.   Wisconsin, OSU , and Indiana were the 3 toughest road games, but they were not by any means the only tough road games.The Big10 has 7 teams that are basically tournament locks.  Michigan is 2-3 against them,  3-2 without a fluke shot at the buzzer.  Illinois is no train wreck.  They have wins over the #1 team, @ #5, #11 on a neutral court, and Minnesota.  

Bosch

February 12th, 2013 at 10:53 AM ^

to Northwestern at home and @ Purdue, putting them behind Purdue in the B1G standings.

Regardless, you are arguing two different things.  Illinois and Minnesota are respectable teams, but their arenas are not hostile environments to play in.

 

ghost

February 12th, 2013 at 11:31 AM ^

I bet Indiana and OSU consider Illinois a tough place to play.  How tough a road environment also depends on how good the opponent is.  For instance Miami is not someone who has an arena that is tough to play in, but if say Virginia goes in there in  a couple of weeks and wins everyone will consider that a great road win.  

Bosch

February 12th, 2013 at 5:02 PM ^

Kansas might also say that TCU is a tough place to play.  Good teams will suffer road losses.  This is not a revelation.  It is also not the point.  The point is that Illinois' Assembly Hall and Minnesota's Williams Arena do not tend to be difficult venues to play at for Michigan, especially Williams. 

 

 

 

BornInAA

February 12th, 2013 at 9:33 AM ^

Unless we are flat like at Wisc, I think we match up well. We have a better perimeter game so guards need to shoot often and well because rebounds will be tough. Could be a key road win.

 

CRISPed in the DIAG

February 12th, 2013 at 9:46 AM ^

We will lose another physical battle tonight and I'm not sure we find the juice for MSU - as strange as that sounds - like we could for Ohio.  This one looks a lot like the IU game, with less good basketball.

60-51, STAEE.

Der Alte

February 12th, 2013 at 9:47 AM ^

Nick and GRIII absolutely postively need to step up tonight. We won't beat Sparty with only Trey, Tim, and Mitch carrying the bulk of the scoring load. 

Willy Wonka

February 12th, 2013 at 9:59 AM ^

It'd be nice to start quickly, a la the Northwestern games. If we start quick I'd say Michigan by 6-10. If not, it wouldn't be surprising to see Sparty win by 10.

I feel like if we get a couple of good looks and buckets early it will help the team settle in. I'm sick of seeing the team start slow, especially on the road. MSU has looked dead at home in the first halves of their past few games. They scored 18 first half points against Minnesota for God's sake.

Start quickly. Silence the crowd. Get EVERYONE involved (WE ON Anyone?).

P.S. I really hope Burke does his beginning of the year Burke - roughly 16 points and 10 assists. It's growing old having him dribble out the clock while everyone stands and watches.

Go Blue!

ghost

February 12th, 2013 at 10:01 AM ^

The pressue will be on Sparty tonight as they are leading the Big10 as of right now.  They haven't faced that kind of pressure yet this year and we have seen what the pressure of being #1 in the country has done to teams and we seen K-State get hammered last night by their rival when they were in first place in the Big12.  Marquette was in first in the BigEast and they proceeded to lose to Georgetown.  Arizona regained first place over Oregon and promptly lost at home to Cal.

LSAClassOf2000

February 12th, 2013 at 10:08 AM ^

Here's a quick comparison:

Overall - Off. Stat Comparison Conference Only
  Michigan Michigan St.   Michigan Michigan St.
Points/Game 76 68.7 Points/Game 73.5 68.5
Avg Score Margin 15.7 9.4 Avg Score Margin 10.7 5.5
Assists/Game 15.2 13.6 Assists/Game 14.1 13.5
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.5 36.9 Total Rebounds/Gm 35.0 34.0
Effective FG % 56.40% 51.70% Effective FG % 54.96% 50.93%
Off Rebound % 31.40% 32.30% Off Rebound % 33.10% 30.90%
Overall - Def. Stat Comparison Conference Only
  Michigan Michigan St.   Michigan Michigan St.
Opp Points/Game 60.3 59.3 Opp Points/Game 62.7 62.9
Opp Effective FG % 47.50% 44.70% Opp Effective FG % 48.20% 48.79%
Off Rebounds/Gm 9.2 9.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 10.8 9.9
Def Rebounds/Gm 24 24 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.2 24.1
Blocks/Game 2.8 3.7 Blocks/Game 3.1 2.5
Steals/Game 5.7 8.6 Steals/Game 6.3 8.6

By the numbers, this is a pretty even matchup, so if we don't come out looking as little flat as in the Wisconsin game, as someone noted above, then it stacks slightly in our favor, I would think. That being said, this seems like it will be another defensive game, so if we can make the easy shots that do come our way, we might get away with a win at Breslin. If we let State get out to a quick start, they have the defensive competency to make this Wisconsin redux. Not much of a prediction, but this game might be a good each way bet as Massey and other sites have noted. That being said, the optimist in me will go with 66-64-ish Michigan.

Buck Killer

February 12th, 2013 at 10:06 AM ^

Trash will blow in from Meier field or whatever they call that dump outside. It will delay the game, and the crowd will start feeling hungover. The crowd will then cheer less and we win by 12. MSU couches will burn through the night and there will be 7 arrests. Izzo will be depressed and realize the landscape has changed just like Dantonio's. Izzo becomes the Detroit Piston's coach at the end of the year.

ryanlove12

February 12th, 2013 at 10:15 AM ^

We are the better basketball team. Winning in the road is tough, but we have already been more than tested on the road. It's not like we just shrank under the pressure. We lost three hard fought games, one of which courtesy of a half court shot. We know to expect some bad calls, and the opponent to shoot better than normal. I also think we find a shooting touch tonight and won this in the 6-10 point range

MGoClimb

February 12th, 2013 at 10:15 AM ^

I'm very concerned with our inside game going into the Breslin to face Payne and Nix.  If we can limit the amount of production they get there I think we stand a decent chance.

Start strong, freshman play well, etc. etc..

Unfortunately, MSU pulls away late with free throws.  74-65

Niels

February 12th, 2013 at 10:17 AM ^

...as I see anything from MSU by 8 to UM by 10 (depending upon how they rebound from UW), I do think that if UM wins I see them as a Final Four team and if they lose I think they probably lose in the Great 8 game.

My rationale is that this is their last chance to make a statement outside the confines of Crisler before the B1G tournament and the tourney. If they lose tonight, I do think that they will carry with them added pressure and doubts about winning away/neutral games with unfriendly refs and the like. Also, it would likely mean that they would be out of the midwest for the tourney or, if they are a 2 seed, in the same bracket as IU in Indy (which might as well be an away game).

 

UofM Die Hard …

February 12th, 2013 at 10:26 AM ^

GRIII can show up and everyone else do what they do, then we can win this game by a handful of pts, if not, get ready for another game coming down to the wire.  We need his quite 12 pts. 

 

The Shredder

February 12th, 2013 at 10:52 AM ^

Burke has to win the match up with App and some how Michigan must limit Payne a bit. The guy has been on a tear and has been shooting the ball very well. They will go to the block on us time and time again. That is where they have an advantage on us. It will be interesting to see if Coach B goes with two bigs in the lineup or goes to a zone to counter Nix and Payne.

MGoRossGrad

February 12th, 2013 at 12:34 PM ^

I think one of our biggest concerns is our defensive rebounding after short jumpers and layups.

In the past few games I think we've actually done a decent job defending the block; it's just that after our opponents throws up a bunny around the hoop, we cannot seem to grab a defensive board.

It's almost as if no matter if they make or miss a contested post touch, they have the putback immediately there. 

Especially with State's size, I think that is the deciding factor.

MGoLogan

February 12th, 2013 at 11:06 AM ^

UM - 72

MSU - 67

 

Big bounce back game for UM.  MSU does not have great perimeter defenders and Hardaway and Burke take advantage of this.  Both go for 20+ as UM picks up a huge road win.  Go Blue!!