Prediction for rest of season

Submitted by Magga Saraivah on October 26th, 2014 at 8:34 PM

So, I think we need a distraction from all the Fire Everyone posts.  Here is my gut feel on how  the rest of the season will play out.  You may not like the End. I don't either. Feel free to disagree:

We beat Indiana 31-28. Devin looks good against the offensive Indiana defense.  Our record edges up to 4-5.  The best highlights shown by ESPN are the students all wearing #fireBrandon t-shirts.  Hoke says he feels happy for the kids.  They worked hard for this win.

Tough road trip to Evanston.  The Wildcats are motivated when they rememeber last year's last minute win on a FG.  We all know how well Hoke prepares for a road game. The Wildcats win 28-21.  Our record drops to 4-6.  Hoke says the kids will go back to work this week and focus on winning the rest of their games.

Maryland comes to town.  They are pumped to play in the Big House.  Unfortuantely, the Big House is only 80% full. The announced attendance is 104,887.  The team plays hard but the season has worn on them.  Maryland looks like a completely different team then the one Wisconsin curb stomped.  Terps win 27-24 when Michigan misses 2 field goals.  Record drops to 4-7. Hoke says we are all dissapointed.  He needs to coach better, but kids will now focus on our biggest rival.

11-29-14:                                                                                                                           Team travels to Columbus.  Buckeye fans dig up their old "We Love Rich Rod" posters and white out Rich Rod's name and replace it with Hoke's. Before the game, Team plants a pitchfork on the big O as a show of unity.  Urban Meyer ends up planting a pitchfork in Hoke's ass.  Buckeyes win 42-21.  Two of the scores are on picked off JT Barrett passes. Hoke apologizes for the interceptions during his post game press conference.  Season ends at 4-8.  When asked about his job status, Hoke replies "well..stuff like that you cant worry about.  Its about the kids and the ability to execute with physicallity".

Atletic Department releaes a statement that Dave Brandon has announced his resignation.:When the press contacts Brady Hoke he says "well..I'm not fully aware of any resignations, but I am partially aware".  MgoBlog "bad gateway errors" make it impossible to post new AD search rumors.

Michigan announces the hiring of Uconn AD Warde Manuel as Brandon's replacement.   Says "he has not yet made a decision on Hoke's status and needs further time for evaluation".  This is the kiss of death.

Early January 2015:
Brady Hoke announces his "resignation". He restates his love for Michigan and says that the decision was all his and he feels he was too much of a distraction to the Kids. Coincidentally, this coincides with the buy out reduction of $1 million in Hoke's contract. Warde Manuel says the buy out did not come into paly and that the decision was all Hoke's.

Warde Manuel announces the promotion of Doug Nussmeier as interim Head Coach and says he will be given a full shot at the position.  The coaching search commences.  Flight Tracker goes wild....

The day after the SuperBowl.  Miami Dolphins fire their Head Coach.  A  few days later a blockbuster trade is announced with the 49'ers that sends Jim Harbaugh to the Dolphins. Dolphins also announce that Dave Brandon has been hired as VP-Marketing.  Brandon & Harbaugh get to work work together after all.  Commence Mgoblog suicide alert..

AD Warde Manuel announces that Doug Nussmeier has been signed to a 4 year contract for $4 million per year.  He states that he is a great young mind with the passion to lead the Wolverines to success.












October 26th, 2014 at 8:41 PM ^



Win Probability Outlook for Remaining Games

Proj Spread Opponent Win Likelihood Sagarin Rank Sagarin Rating
-- Mich -- 71 68.25
----------- -------- -------------- ------------ --------------
 4.1 IU 60.9% 74 67.39
-6.9 @NW 32.3% 56 71.84
-3.4 MD 41.1% 41 74.91
-21.2 @OSU 7.9% 16 86.15

Probability Distribution of Final Regular Season Record

Reg Season Record Likelihood
----------------- ----------
3-9 14.4%
4-8 40.5%
5-7 34.4%
6-6 10.1%
7-5 0.6%


  • Proj Spreads via Sagarin
  • Normal Distribution functions using
      calibrated to minimize sum of squares vs
      Link -- Chance of Winning vs Spread
  • Resulting Sigma(ActualMargin-ProjSpread) = 15


October 27th, 2014 at 10:41 AM ^



Northwestern has beaten Sagarin #
  • 17 Wisconsin 20-14
  • 48 @Penn State 29-6

plus W. Illinois for an overall 3-4 record

Maryland has beaten Sagarin #
  • 39 Iowa 38-31
  • 63 @Syracuse 34-20
  • 74 @Indiana 37-15

and lost to
  • 25 West Virginia 40-37

plus James Madison & S. Florida for an overall 5-3 record

Michigan has beaten Sagarin #
  • 48 Penn State 18-13

plus Appalachian State & Miami (NTM) for an overall 3-5 record

If you hid the names of NW,MD, & Mich but saw their records

  • Link -- Team A
  • Link -- Team B
  • Link -- Team C

I don't know how you'd come to any other conclusion than Team C (Michigan) was the worst of the three.



October 26th, 2014 at 10:03 PM ^

Without having it in front of me (the actual spreadsheet is at work), I am fairly certain Massey's numbers tell a similar tale of us not likely being bowl eligible, and the MSU game was in some ways a "swing game", if you will, on which the direction of the prediction hinged. At this point, 6-6 would sadly be a statistical achievement, given current numbers. 


October 27th, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^

With their recent performances, Purdue and Illinois have pulled themselves up to #81 and #86 in the Sagarin ratings.

That's about where the bottom of the barrel B1G teams should be.  It's been a while as lately the BiG has seemed to field at least one 100+ team, and last year Purdue edged out Sacred Heart for the 157th ranking.

Also related are the Week 9 ESPN B1G Power Rankings. Guess who's tied w/ Illinois for tje 12th spot?…


What is there to say anymore? The Wolverines need to win out to finish the regular season above .500. Another hapless showing against Michigan State confirmed, at least, that Michigan's mighty struggles could not be fixed by an off week.

MoJo Rising

October 26th, 2014 at 8:46 PM ^

Of making bad teams play their best games. Add that Michigan enjoys pointing shotguns at themeselves just to see what a self inflected wound looks like. Not just once but several times as if the first one wasn't enough. I don't see the O getting any better. The real hope is that the D can keep the team in the game and that the field goal kicker makes all his kicks. 


October 26th, 2014 at 8:47 PM ^

I think this team is done. Great buncha guys, but there's no wind left in their sails.

3-9 highly likely.

Brandon stays. Hoke replaced by some other guy no one's ever heard of. Harbaugh to Dolphins.


October 26th, 2014 at 8:49 PM ^

Its funny.  Everyone thinks Harbaugh won't work for Brandon even though the two of them are friends.  In fact, it was thought back in 2011 that Brandon's relationship with Harbaugh would help us land him.  


October 26th, 2014 at 9:14 PM ^

What makes you think they are friends?  They were never at U of M at the same time from what I can tell.  Brandon graduated in 1973 and became a regent in 1998.  Harbaugh played from 1983 to 1986.  I'm not saying you are wrong but I just don't see how their paths would have crossed enough times to really build a friendship.  I don't think a former player like Brandon would have hung around the program all that much since he was just a bench warmer.  Brandon didn't even know Hoke before he hired him and they were at Michigan at the same time.


October 26th, 2014 at 11:05 PM ^

After reading the "Brandon Manifesto" you can clearly tell he's delusional. He even took another shot at Harbaugh about how it takes four years to turn around a program. Oh and did you forget the "all that glitters is not gold" line from the Hoke press conference. Who do you think he was talking about?


October 26th, 2014 at 10:51 PM ^

"But Michigan's new athletic director, Dave Brandon, was late to get to Harbaugh, so even Brandon's offer of $5 million a year -- double Rodriguez's salary -- was not enough to keep Harbaugh from taking over the San Francisco 49ers."

-John U. Bacon



October 27th, 2014 at 9:23 AM ^

was that the late gesture to Harbaugh was a CYA move. And the inference--made by various people--was that Brandon's ego was not up to Harbaugh's ego. I don't think anyone thought that Brady was super-bright, but that if he were surrounded by good assistants, this being Michigan, he could come up with an old-fashioned team that stomped people. Hubris.

Prince Lover

October 27th, 2014 at 9:46 AM ^

Then why did his dad call him son?(this joke doesn't work so well in written form)

But on a serious note, Hoke did win coach of the year in his respective conferences 2 out of 3 years. And then in his 1st year in B1G, making it 3 out of 4 years in 3 different conferences. It really is not like the man did not have any success before UM.


October 26th, 2014 at 8:50 PM ^

is that many of you will say that you suddenly have more free time on Saturdays. I will shake my head...I will continue to support the kids and will really enjoy the day that Michigan is once again the Michigan we all know and love.


October 27th, 2014 at 9:33 AM ^

MY kid, by getting out on Saturdays and playing with her. But I always find myself gravitating toward the screen at game time, disgusted as my wife becomes with me.

I did turn it off after Gardner's third quarter INT Saturday, though. And probably for the first time since 1997, I wasn't feeling awful when I did it. Or numb. I have had high hopes that Devin could turn it around, even as I came to resent Brandon and Hoke the more. I just transitioned to prepping dinner.

It's probably people like me that Schlissel should be worrying about. Because once Michigan loses the eyeballs of the religiously faithful, people whose love took decades to develop. . . Both of my brothers also went to Michigan, but they rarely watch anymore. A big game, if they happen to be around the house.

It's not simply about losing, either. You'll notice that fans turn out for Harvard and Yale and Berkeley because they like to be with Harvard and Yale and Berkeley people; their teams often lose. Everyone shakes their head and still goes home happy to be associated with the institution. But when such a stench rises from the Athletic Department. . . when the AD is so clearly willing to screw the faithful, talking shit about the tradition while, in fact, encouraging his employees to help him break it. . . no.


October 26th, 2014 at 8:51 PM ^

I predict we go winless except possibly IU.  Complete alum/student/athletic community meltdown ensues.  I think Schlissel cleans house and opens the checkbook. 

I know I'm pollyannish about this (long term, anyway), and I know President Schlissel is an unfortunate newcomer to all this.  But I also know the value of football to this university.  This is a situation that Schlissel and the regents cannot ignore.


October 26th, 2014 at 8:51 PM ^

in the air and walk away.

That would be the end for me.  I'd part ways with my Michigan fandom.  I wouldn't find another team to root for, I'd just quit watching.  I'd give up season tix and would probably stop watching college football altogether.  It just hasn't been any fun to watch knowing that Michigan is complete dog shit right now.

I might take up gardening or some other hobby.


October 26th, 2014 at 8:54 PM ^

That's, uh, a lot more touchdowns than I think this team is capable of.

I'm gonna say we beat Indiana and then lose out the rest of the year. Indiana seems like it'll be a 20-10 sort of game. I'd guess Northwestern wins 27-13, Maryland wins 34-16, and OSU wins 45-10. Brandon is gone the week after OSU, Hoke is gone before Christmas. I won't venture a guess on the identity of the new coach besides it won't be an exciting name (no Harbaugh, Miles, or Mullen).


October 26th, 2014 at 8:54 PM ^

Another game. I didn't think we'd win another one three weeks ago. Lucked out to win against PSU. Won't win again this year. Terrible program, Hoke is way over his head!


October 26th, 2014 at 8:55 PM ^

Beat Indiana 38 - 31
Lose to Northwestern 24 - 10 or if it starts ugly like it usually does, I'll take Matt Wile winning 12 - 10
Beat Maryland 48-44
Lose to Ohio State 34 - 14

If Matt Wile beats NW then bowl loss to Georgia Tech (complete guess/don't know B10 locked bowls) 23 - 17