Predicting this year's 3v14 upset
Every year we wonder what, (if any) high ranked team will go out in shame in the first round. No 16 seed has ever beaten a first seed, and seldom do we see a 15 seed prevail- though I would be remiss on this board if I did not point out the last time it occurred-
MSU was blown out by Middle Tennessee in 2016, 91-80.
Statistically, there has been a 3v14 upset every year over the last five years, so that is the more likely major upset if there is one. While 14v3 upsets were more rare prior to that, the 1986-1999 years saw 13 such upsets, so we may have begun a second such pattern. Here are the last five years 14 seed upsets below:
| Year | Loser (3 Seed) | Winner (14 Seed) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | West Virginia | Stephen F. Austin | 70-56 |
| 2015 | Baylor | Georgia State | 57-56 |
| 2015 | Iowa State | UAB | 60-59 |
| 2014 | Duke | Mercer | 78-71 |
| 2013 | New Mexico | Harvard | 68-62 |
Who is most likely to be on this list? Who would you like to make this list?
As a side note both Duke and Michigan State are tied for the most number of major upsets, at 2 each, all recent, at 1x 2seed and 1x 3 seed each. Other winners of the failure awards below:
| Teams tied for most 2+3 Seed losses | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 3 Seed Losses | Lost To | 2 Seed Losses | Lost To |
| Michigan State | 1995 | Weber State | 2016 | Middle Tennessee |
| Duke | 2014 | Mercer | 2012 | Lehigh |
| Georgetown | 2010 | Ohio | 2013 | Florida Gulf Coast |
| Missouri | 1990 | Northern Iowa | 2012 | Norfolk State |
| Iowa State | 2015 | UAB | 2001 | Hampton |
| South Carolina | 1998 | Richmond | 1997 | Coppin State |
| Arizona | 1992 | East Tennesse State | 1993 | Santa Clara |
Personally I would be happy if State chokes, simply because I don't believe they've earned their seed, and because other current events, but CBS' ranking system that has Texas Tech as most likely to fall as a 3 seed this year might not be wrong either.
In case you are too bored to look at the matchups themselves, here's a chart of relative RPI strength between the 4 14 seeds vs their 3 seed opponents:
| 3v 14 seed RPI Pairings | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | RPI Rank | Team | RPI Rank | RPI Rank Difference |
| Tennessee | 8 | Wright State | 99 | 91 |
| Michigan | 12 | Montana | 76 | 64 |
| Michigan State | 14 | Bucknell | 80 | 66 |
| Texas Tech | 23 | Stephen F Austin | 104 | 81 |
Here's hoping Michigan survives the curse of the 3.
UPenn over Kansas
I really wwould have picked them over Xavier only half-jokingly. The Ivy champ is usually, what, a 13 or even a 12?
Sorry Texas Tech.
March 14th, 2018 at 11:12 PM ^
March 14th, 2018 at 10:00 PM ^
They will all win, just like they did last year (2017 - not a part of the last 5 years?) There is no curse. Go to sleep, you won't want to forget 2018 like you seemed to forget 2017. Big day tomorrow!
Let me make something very clear. Who the fuck cares what Sparty does. Who cares what they think. This obsession with Sparty voodoo is a distraction from Michigan’s accomplishments. Look, Sparty has a good team. That’s why beating them was fun. Let them make a good deep run. Right into us again, God willing. But mean spirited posts wishing ill onto Sparty is beneath us as a fan base. Goddammit.
March 14th, 2018 at 10:01 PM ^
March 14th, 2018 at 10:41 PM ^
Here's hoping Michigan survives the curse of the 3.This "curse" has only afflicted like 10-15% of 3 seeds since the field went to 64.
The numbers suggest 2 every 3 years.
March 14th, 2018 at 10:14 PM ^
March 15th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^
Currently a student at Wright State, the plaze is buzzing about the tournament.
the fuck is this?
March 14th, 2018 at 10:00 PM ^
how does Syracuse not dominate more with that height?
March 14th, 2018 at 10:04 PM ^
March 14th, 2018 at 10:22 PM ^
Not a blowout, but I believe MSU never led (or if they did it was in the first few minutes of the first half only).
March 14th, 2018 at 10:24 PM ^
March 14th, 2018 at 10:26 PM ^
It is when we are talking about MSU losing as a #2. LOL
March 14th, 2018 at 10:05 PM ^
I predict no upset this year.
March 14th, 2018 at 10:12 PM ^
March 14th, 2018 at 10:28 PM ^
Stone cold Stephen F Austin university is my pick. Also I really don't mind battle getting paid at Syracuse would have been nice but I like our team.
March 14th, 2018 at 10:40 PM ^
Michigan is the most likely candidate based on the numbers, but gun to my head Texas Tech is the pick because they've gone 2-5 in their last 7.
March 14th, 2018 at 10:41 PM ^
March 14th, 2018 at 11:03 PM ^
March 14th, 2018 at 11:14 PM ^
March 14th, 2018 at 11:28 PM ^
March 14th, 2018 at 11:34 PM ^
March 14th, 2018 at 11:53 PM ^
Bad ju ju.
March 15th, 2018 at 12:20 AM ^
March 15th, 2018 at 12:25 AM ^
You really don't understand the first thing about statistics or randomness, do you? :-)
When in doubt, quote an Adam Sandler movie: "[W]hat you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
This isn't to say that it's impossible that a 14 seed will win a game over the next two days. But your reasoning is specious at best. You have identified a pattern where none exists.
March 15th, 2018 at 12:26 AM ^
Trend breaking year. All chalk for 3 vs 14.
A pleasant memory from 2014:
March 15th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^
I don't know about 3 v 14,
But I'm the worlds biggest South Dakota State fan.... GO Jackrabbits!
March 15th, 2018 at 11:52 PM ^
I stand corrected congrats Buffalo and Romulus grad Wes Clark.