Predicting the Wolverines 2010 schedule

Submitted by TheBlue on August 8th, 2010 at 12:59 PM

UConn- With RR knowing this team and beating them down every time at WVU, this shouldn't be a problem, I say we get the W.

@ND- Brian Kelly is coming in with a new QB and a lost star WR. He should be focusing on recruiting more than this season, we get the W.

UMass- Easy team, no doubt, W.

BGSU- If this was Toledo, we wouldnt have a problem, we had nobody really in 2008 to work with Toledo, and BGSU reminds me of Toledo, W.

@Indiana- Depending on last years performance, and the guys we got this year with the growth of Forcier and Roundtree, Indiana should be a challenge, but we get the W.

MSU- Comforting, isn't it? We should get MSU done this year if we don't mess up like last year, if everything goes right, we get the W.

Iowa- I'm not so sure about this one, sure we lost last year by a Denard pick, but Robinson is more accurate, and Iowa having a previously hurt QB Stanzi, he could have a problem. But I just can't be so sure about this one, W.

@PSU-They don't have a QB, their defense is softer. We should get something on them, but I think we're going to lose by a few points. L.

Illinois- We should of gotten them done last year, but this year, we WILL get them done.  W.

@Purdue- Lost in '08 and '09 by late mistakes, since Valentin and their star WR is gone, we should get the W.

Wisconsin- '08 was great when we beat them, but they have a better RB and a better QB. I'm going with the L here guys, Wisconsin will beat us by taking advantage of mistakes.

@OSU- Our defense should know Pryor's plan by now, but we're not going to beat them like that, we need an offense that will drive and drive, in '08 we didn't do that because our QB's had no experience. In '09 we didn't do that because Forcier threw to many ints.

We will beat Ohio State.

 

 

Final record: 10-2

Comments

TheBlue

August 8th, 2010 at 1:04 PM ^

This is really the prediction of no mistakes like we did against...

 

Iowa

MSU

OSU

Illinois

Purdue

 

Of course there will be mistakes we will make, so these predictions dont matter, its whats going to happen on the field. With mistakes, I say we go 7-5 at the worst.

SAvoodoo

August 8th, 2010 at 1:15 PM ^

I'm working on one, but I can't decide if Craig Roh uses his right or left arm to tackle pryor on the inside blitz with 9:47 left in the second quarter on the 3rd and 7  from their own 47 (set up by the 8 yard run off tackle on 1st down, false start penalty, and incomplete pass on second down of course).  I'm thinking of right but there's just something that just doesn't fit like i want it to.  Maybe it'll be right, but then a strong assist from the left...hmm...I'll let you know

learmanj

August 8th, 2010 at 1:36 PM ^

If I were to predict UM's schedule for this season I would guess

9-4: UConn

9-11:@ ND

9-18: UMass

9-25: BGSU

10-2: @Indiana

10-9: MSU

10-16: Iowa

10-30: @ PSU

11-6: Illinois

11-13: @Purdue

11-20: WIsc

11-27: @OSU

This is my bold prediction for what the schedule will be this year.  Really going out on a limb.

Irish

August 8th, 2010 at 1:43 PM ^

@ND- Brian Kelly is coming in with a new QB and a lost star WR. He should be focusing on recruiting more than this season, we get the W.

Where has Floyd gone to be lost? he was at the first day of practice yesterday. Recruiting is almost finished, only looks to be 3-5 slots left for ND in this class as it is now and they've actually changed most of their focus to 2012 recruits it seems. ND may lose, I doubt it, but it wont be because of the reasons you stated.

CrankThatDonovan

August 8th, 2010 at 2:23 PM ^

Michigan ran for 190 yards against Notre Dame last season with Forcier at quarterback.  If Denard Robinson starts, are you confident that number will decrease?  Because I don't see Notre Dame controlling any game in which they give up 200 yards rushing. 

If anything, I fear the Brian Kelly passing attack.  Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph should have big games.  I still have doubts about the ND defense, though

Irish

August 8th, 2010 at 2:36 PM ^

no, ND did not come anywhere close to controlling anything on defense last year.  190 rushing yards is the perfect example of that.  I fully understand your, or anyones, doubts after the way the ND defense played last year.  Can't really show anything until sept. 4th though to change anyones mind.

Irish

August 8th, 2010 at 3:36 PM ^

I have evidence but its all projection or circumstantial, which isn't really proof of anything.  The only numbers with this staff come from the weight room and that isn't going to be evidence of anything till people see it on the field.  

I can cite statistics from UC but it was a different team, with a difference schedule and under a vastly different situation.  What stats would actually change your mind knowing that?  Until the first game with purdue, there isn't much I can say that is absolute proof ND will win against UM, its mostly just optimism. 

CrankThatDonovan

August 8th, 2010 at 2:43 PM ^

I guess I'm just not sure where the optimism stems from.  Brian Kelly is a fine coach, but he is no miracle worker.  ND has new guys at key positions on offense and they have a long history of underachieving on defense.  It will take more than one year for Kelly to turn that around, if he ever does.  Just my epinion, though

Geaux_Blue

August 8th, 2010 at 2:28 PM ^

UM's weaknesses play into ND's strengths? The D-Line, as a corps, may very well be stronger than last year's because of experience, etc. A first year QB will not exploit the secondary the way others will. The linebacking corps will be better than last year, etc. And UM won that game. Even if ND returns an improved defense, UM returns an improved offense. I really am unsure what line items you see as strong indicators when your major X factors are glaring question marks.

Irish

August 8th, 2010 at 3:22 PM ^

These are some of the matchups that I like, to be honest.  ND's starting receivers are proven to be productive, Kelly's passing offense is proven to be productive, but Crist hasn't proven anything either way on a big stage.  UM's secondary wasn't good last year, and it lost both starting corners since ND played them.  It's a new base system with what sounds like a lot of position battles yet to be settled.  Just way too many unknowns to expect there is a dramatic difference from last season.

I am not sure why you think UM's LBers played better, it was pretty bad both ways.  Both sides are mostly unknown as of now, both switching systems.  It might be just me, but it means something for all of ND's front 7 to be playing in their natural positions once again.  Last year when Diaco brought 10 new starters into UC's defense they were very productive in sacks, TFL and turnover margin there is no reason to not have optimism for the unit.  I have no idea how productive this DC's 3-3-5 will be at UM and I got the feeling he doesn't know either, since he hasn't run it before if I remember correctly.

chunkums

August 8th, 2010 at 4:03 PM ^

Here's the thing about Kelly:

His best defensive team at Cincinnati was the first one he coached, which had been recruited by, and taught fundamentals by the Dantonio staff.  

His worst defensive team at Cincinnati was his fourth year.  That team was recruited and developed by Kelly's staff.  

Looking at these facts, one has to wonder if they will have any improvement at all this year.  The offense last year at ND was downright awesome, with Clausen slinging the ball all over the place, and achieving one of the highest QB ratings in the country, so it's a bit of a stretch to think it will be better with a new QB, new O-line, and minus one first round wide receiver.

As far as the defense, I guess it can't get any worse, but Kelly is no defensive mastermind.  His strengths and weaknesses are the same as Fat Charlie's (Except Charlie's weakness for jelly doughnuts).

blue note

August 8th, 2010 at 5:27 PM ^

Side note about Cincinati last year, they lost 10 of 11 defensive starters from the year before.

I thought that was strange to lose so many starters in one year. I can't recall anything like that at Michigan since I've been following football. Just an oddity.

Irish

August 8th, 2010 at 7:09 PM ^

Here is the NCAA's comparative rank of the last three years at UC in descending order ,2009, 2008, 2007. NCAA doesn't have ranking data for 2006.

Total Defense - 48, 52, 50

Pass - 49, 57, 89

Rush - 56, 20, 19

Scoring - 24, 26, 13

Turnover Margin - 12, 92, 6

Sacks (rank) - 8, 9, 8

TFL (Rank) - 3, 23, 18

The only game he coached in 2006 at UC was their bowl game.  So yeah they were Dantonio's recruits.  You may want to check your facts again.

chunkums

August 8th, 2010 at 9:58 PM ^

Very well, I was going by the total yardage statistics provided by Rivals, and thought Kelly had been hired for the 2006 season, so I was wrong in that respect.  

Still, in his 3 years at Cincinnati, Kelly had one of the bottom 3 defenses in the conference for two of them (YPG).  The dude can coach an offense like whoah, but so could Charlie, especially in 2009.  I'm sure Kelly is a better defensive coach than fatass (It's hard not to be), but to think that the team will go from absolute zero execution to even an average rate with a brand new coaching staff and a change in philosophy is just a bit iffy to me.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/stats/byteam?cat1=defense&cat2=Total&sort=1124&conference=I-A_BIGE&year=2009

Irish

August 9th, 2010 at 9:49 PM ^

No problem, I was real confused by citing 2006 I had to go back and check to see if I was totally missing something.

Something that should be taken into account with the defensive statistics is the time of possession; which was one of the lowest numbers in the country last year, largely because of how fast the offense scored. So the yardage numbers are probably a bit inflated on what to expect this year, with what is likely a less explosive offense than was at UC last year.  If we actually compared the defensive yards vs time on the field it probably wouldn't look as bad.  

BraveWolverine730

August 8th, 2010 at 2:03 PM ^

Come on Irish, you know he meant Golden Tate. Don't try to act cute about that. The bottom line is that ND doesn't have the same firepower it did last year.  Now that may balance out because they have a competent coach , but to pretend the offensive talent is equal to last year is as much wishful thinking as is thinking UM will go 10-2.

the_white_tiger

August 8th, 2010 at 2:05 PM ^

[Insert team here] may lose, I doubt it, but it wont be because of the reasons you stated.

You could say that for most of these predictions. We will beat Notre Dame because Kelly's too busy recruiting, we will beat Bowling Green because they remind him of Toledo, we will beat Iowa because Stanzi was hurt last year, and we will beat Purdue because they lost Reggie Valentine, who for the record wasn't their best receiver. (Keith Smith was, and he's returning.)

Do you really doubt that we'll beat you this year though, I mean, it looks like a toss-up.