Potential for Michigan to come away with no new commits on signing day?

Submitted by MinorforPresident on February 3rd, 2009 at 2:06 AM

As is every year, the whirlwind of the last couple days is here. In the last 24 hours we've been given reason to have less optimism with recruits such as Je'Ron Stokes and Denard Robinson. So my question is does anyone think there is the chance we get no new commits on Wednesday? If that happened and Graves and/or Jones doesn't come then we won't even make it to 20.
I think we have made our move to early on a few of these guys allowing schools like Tennessee to get the last visit (i.e. Stokes) and thus making more of an impression in crunch time. Here's hoping for some good ol' fashioned luck.

Comments

Don

February 3rd, 2009 at 4:56 AM ^

One problem with these potential guys is that almost all of them are from areas outside the Big Ten, so distance (if not weather) is an issue. If Robinson or Montgomery were from Illinois or Indiana our chances would have been much better. As a parent, I can completely understand the desire of a mother and father to want their kid close to home, especially if they're not well-off enough to fly to games on a regular basis.

The other, and much more important, problem is 3-9, and the relentless bashing that RR has been getting in the press for the last 12+ months. The only thing that will cure that is winning, which is why 2009 is so critical for RR. If our recruiting opponents are already spreading rumors about RR being fired after one bad season, just imagine what the rumor-mill will be saying if there's another losing campaign. The recruiting task in 2010 in that scenario would make this year look like child's play for the staff.

I think it's interesting that Robinson is saying RR told him he could start as a freshman. I suppose that's a reasonable thing to say, but I wonder what Forcier thinks when he reads that kind of stuff. I hope it serves as a motivation in a positive sense.

The one possible positive result of all the national negativity about RR and the current state of the program is that it can provide the perfect environment for a "us against the world" mindset for the team. That, plus the inevitable disregard for us by our opponents, can make us a dangerous team. I don't believe that Barwis is some sort of magic cure-all for a lack of talent, though. If the talent isn't there, we'll simply be the best-conditioned lousy team in the country, missing our tackles with blinding speed and dropping punts with electrifying quickness.

howarddestroysherbie

February 3rd, 2009 at 8:03 AM ^

Why is everyone freaking out? Remember last year how Michigan grabbed like 4 guys we didn't even think were being considered. I'm sure Rich Rod has got some leftover snake oil and is just dripping it all over the country side as we speak.

baorao

February 3rd, 2009 at 8:53 AM ^

increasingly likely that we get "shut out" on signing day. I don't think there will be many out of the blue surprises tomorrow. Last year's surprises were borne out of necessity because of the coaching change.

IMO if we're out of it for Stokes, Robinson and Montgomery then *only* thing that matters if landing at least one of Graves/Jones.

wolverine1987

February 3rd, 2009 at 9:15 AM ^

if we are shut out. When you have 4-5 open spots, are pursuing guys for them, and are Michigan (yes, 3-9 I know, even with that) to be shut out would be disappointing and I think, a knock against the staff. It's true that the type of guys we're pursuing are different than in past, and are arguably harder to bring to Ann Arbor than midwest guys, (and 3-9 again) , but that is where RR has put his recruiting flag and he has to live with it.

The other reason I would be disappointed is that with the inexactness of recruiting, where some 4 star guys come and never really see the field, having open class spots that you want filled and not filling them is really putting pressure on to hit with all of your class. Quality and quantity are both important simply because you can't really be sure.

Now would this be a major problem? No. Does that mean much for next year? No again, and with a good year next year recruiting will be far easier. But it would be disappointing and will give us a slightly steeper hill to climb.

PA Blue

February 3rd, 2009 at 9:33 AM ^

Even if we have a 20% chance of landing Robinson, Witty, Washington (and all are MUCH more likely than that), the chance we miss out on ALL of them is:

The product of missing out on each on individually, or

.8 * .8 * .8 = .51 (51%) --- a 50/50 chance of ending up with none.

If the chance of missing out on each is more like 30% (a bit more realistic, I think), then the chances of missing out on ALL of them drops to:

.7 * .7 * .7 = .34 (34%)

Now, the most realistic scenario (from what I've read) is something like:

50% for Robinson, 50% for Witty (attached at the hip it seems) and 55% for Washington:

.5 * .5 * .55 = .14 (14%) --- So, if current feelings about the chances of each signing with Michigan are roughly accurate, there is a SMALL chance we end up with none.

jg2112

February 3rd, 2009 at 9:45 AM ^

Whatever Michigan doesn't get this year, it'll get in 2010. It's more important for Michigan to improve on the field this year. Competent QB play and an improved turnover margin will change 3-9 to 7-5 and then the recruits will fly themselves to Ann Arbor.

Honestly, the class is fine as it is. If anyone other than Big Will, Forcier, Gibbons or Justin Turner in the 2009 class sees the field this year, the fanbase should rightly be very concerned.

jg2112

February 3rd, 2009 at 9:56 AM ^

Aren't there safety prospects from the 2008 recruiting class that didn't play last year (is Floyd a safety?) Also, Williams and Brown are in the mix, aren't they? And, Woolfolk?

Patterson, Sagesse, Van Bergen, Martin, Graham all come to mind on the line. I've probably got the positions mixed up and Graham is the only DE, but it seems there is enough there to let Roh and LaLota redshirt.

baorao

February 3rd, 2009 at 10:21 AM ^

Brandon Smith, Stevie Brown and Michael Williams. Floyd is a corner and Woolfolk is really probably some type of nickel DB at this point.

regardless, the general opposition to your argument is because in order none of the other freshman to see the field you have to sort of assume all of the names you're listing will be playing to the level of a capable B10 starter and none of them get hurt (or tired).

Magnus

February 3rd, 2009 at 10:23 AM ^

Well...Woolfolk is a cornerback.

The only returning safeties who actually played were Brown and Williams, and Brown sucked. Smith is the only other safety to get any buzz, which means one of the freshman safeties might play (not start, but play).

Graham, Banks, and Van Bergen are the only returning DE's. Word on the street is that Patterson has been moved to DT. So unless they plan on playing only one backup DE and then starting at least one redshirt freshman with zero playing experience in 2010, I'm guessing that either Roh (most likely) or Lalota (less likely) will play in 2009.

jaggs

February 3rd, 2009 at 9:52 AM ^

According to Rivals the have 13 total commits and 3 3* players. No offence but we don't want to be competing with Syracuse for talent...though I do recall a decent RB came out of there that went to Michigan a few years back that as 3*...so who knows?

MinorforPresident

February 3rd, 2009 at 10:38 AM ^

Is we field basically the same team as last year minus some experience and what is to say we're going to be any better. I think we have a lot of players who can potentially be good but remember they are young and freshmen don't come in and make an impact on a regular basis. Everyone expecting Forcier to come in and be Colt McCoy is crazy, he'll have growing pains and the inexperience of a freshman dealing with a whole new level of game speed. If we don't use 4-5 spots this year and then graduate people next year what are we going to do, pull a North Carolina in 2010?

jg2112

February 3rd, 2009 at 10:42 AM ^

...a 2010 North Carolina would be zesty.

But, remember, the team just needs a competent QB, not dynamism. Competence at QB last year would have made for a .500 season.

With the running backs this team has, along with the added experience at O-line and either a returning starter or competent running QB, the team should not have 33% 3 and outs, which will relieve the burden on what I'm learning is a pretty threadbare defense.

TrueBlueLaw

February 3rd, 2009 at 11:36 AM ^

I'm probably guilty of assuming too much. But we'll have the exact same offense with either Forcier or a healthy Threet. And likely upgrade the O-Line with some quality redshirts. That has to equal .500. Plus, the defense simply can't be any worse. Really. It just can't. Throw in a year of experience. Downgrade the squads at MSU, OSU, and PSU a notch or two. Things really don't look so bad. Even if we strike out on Robinson, Graves, Stokes, and others.

Jay

February 3rd, 2009 at 11:38 AM ^

The need to land two dual threat QBs in this class was considered critical 6 months ago. Nothing has changed. Not landing Denard Robinson would be a huge blow to the team, imho. As Magnus pointed out, because we are so thin along the D line & in the secondary, the chances are good that a couple of the young guys will be forced to play well before they are ready to. If we are shut out tomorrow and don't land ANY of the players that were are in on, that would be damn disappointing, imho.

baleedat

February 3rd, 2009 at 3:18 PM ^

MichFan1997 appeared flabbergasted that steviebrownforheisman would dare suggest Furrha wasn't a huge step down from Threet because Furrha is a walk-on. I was merely pointing out that Threet was beat out by a walk-on less than a year ago. That's all.

baorao

February 3rd, 2009 at 11:42 AM ^

is how many years in a row we're going to rely on true freshman. Some of that can't be avoided, but I'm slightly less optimistic than the "oh well, we'll just recruit that position harder next year, and it will work because we can offer immediate playing time!" crowd.

Tater

February 3rd, 2009 at 12:37 PM ^

I agree that you don't want to depend on true freshmen, but it is great to have one or two that are so good you have to play them.

Usually, that happens with the little, fast guys at RB, WR, slot, or CB.

I think this year will go a long way toward re-stabalizing the program. I certainly hope so.