Postseason Expectations

Submitted by camblue on March 10th, 2019 at 12:48 AM

Tonight sucked, no doubt about it. But for those complaining our offense isn't good enough to make a run, our kenpom offensive efficiency is actually about the same as last year (and our d is much better). So what do people think happens in the tourneys? My predictions:

BTT: neutral court, (hopefully) neutral refs, Matthews back, angry team. I think we win it.

NCAA: Always matchup dependent. We should at least make the sweet 16. I think we bow out in the elite 8.

Comments

A Lot of Milk

March 10th, 2019 at 12:58 AM ^

We either beat Iowa, Purdue, and MSU for the title or we lose on Friday. No in between. I can almost promise you that.

Have no idea for the NCAA tourney. Playing in Iowa is gonna suck, and obviously you can go 0-100 from three and the other team can go 100-100, but I will say that if you're basing it on average performance vs average performance, there are probably two or three teams that will beat Michigan if everything is normal, MSU just happens to be one of them. 

TheCube

March 10th, 2019 at 1:09 PM ^

Am I the only one who thinks that the Jedi are stupid and nonsensical in Star Wars? 

We’d all be Sith bc we have emotions and care about shit. Jedi just mentally masturbate and sit around while the world collapses around them. Sith would do something. 

The old Star Wars lore that Disney made non-canon was so good at explaining this stuff. The new shit sucks something fierce  

Just a thought. Side rant over 

 

Gucci Mane

March 10th, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^

First of all I’m thrilled that Kathleen Kennedy and Disney in general made what constitutes cannon clear. Having random books count as cannon in the past was always silly. 

As for your Jedi comments, yes they needed to change. It’s seems Rey is the first of a new Jedi, spurred on by Luke and Yoda. 

Gucci Mane

March 10th, 2019 at 4:06 PM ^

It’s not just a “sky walker fairy tale”. There are the two stand alone movies now, clone wars and rebels animated series, and many books that deal with a variety of stories. 

You do make a good point about the old republic. And I believe Disney will make a new trilogy based on the old republic. Probably include ancient sith. 

MGoBlue96

March 10th, 2019 at 1:09 AM ^

I mean it honestly depends on the draw. Last year's team played poorly offensively in every tournament game besides one but got a good draw. The other question would is this team capable of playing at the level they did against UNC and Villanova earlier in the season. I don't think we have seen the level of consistent ball movement we saw in those games since then. I mean something like Simpsons shooting will be a consistent flaw with this team, but they really get bogged down when guys try and do much and the ball stops moving. When this team was playing at their absolute best they were playing as a team that was greater than the sum of their parts. Hopefully they can find that for the tourney.

outsidethebox

March 11th, 2019 at 9:09 AM ^

This would be a very logical argument if things did not change significantly over the course of a season. This team certainly was a thing of beauty when they were greater than the sum of their parts. They are no longer this and may, in fact, be on the negative side of this equation. It would be disingenuous to ignore the fact that the opposition has learned how to relegate this team to a dysfunctional offensive hell. Here, I wonder if Michigan's otherwise outstanding coaching staff is too close to the issues-and cannot see the forest for the trees...this happens...these quips come into being for a reason. This team, who in their opening season run knew how to find a way to win, now seems more adept at finding a way to lose. 

I am presently lost between knowing they could win it all while at the same time knowing that they may not win any more games this season. This is a very strange, unfamiliar, uncomfortable place to be with regards to a Beilein coached team.

 

enlightenedbum

March 10th, 2019 at 1:10 AM ^

If you recall the last time we toyed with being #1 for a while followed by a late Big Ten fade and lost a conference title on the last day of the regular season, we should have won the national title with competent officiating.  So let's get that.

MGoBlue96

March 10th, 2019 at 1:21 AM ^

True and that team was also flawed just on the defensive and rebounding side instead. I mean I don't think the odds are great to get to another final four or title game, but I think it is crazy for people to think a flawed team can't ride their strength to a deep run potentially, at least until you run into truly elite team offensively.

HireWayne

March 10th, 2019 at 1:19 AM ^

Throw out the Kenpom efficiency ratings.  Last years team didn't go on offensive lulls for an entire halfs because Duncan, Mo, and Rahk were reliable jump shooters who could spread the defense.  This team simply doesn't have enough shooters. 

I don't see us winning the Big Ten Tourney because we have to go through high powered offenses in Iowa and Sparty to get there.  

Eliminated in the 2nd weekend is my guess for the tournament. 

Overall, it's amazing they went 26-5 while shooting so poorly. 

A Lot of Milk

March 10th, 2019 at 1:38 AM ^

So if Michigan plays their best basketball of the season (definition of ceiling), you are guaranteeing that they will lose to a 3 seed in the sweet sixteen, as that would be the highest possible matchup. Even though we've already seen them dominate a 1 seed (UNC), a 4 seed (Nova), a 3 seed (Purdue) and two wins over a 5 seed (Maryland). That seems kinda pessimistic 

northernmich

March 10th, 2019 at 1:59 AM ^

The UNC, Villanova, and Purdue teams U of M played are not even close to the same when we played them. We aren’t the same team either, we are probably a little better defensively now than in November, but our offense just isn’t there. Look I love Zavier Simpson, I’ve been a fan for the last two years, but he’s lack of shooting puts us at a ceiling. Last year we got away with it because MAAR was the tough jump shot maker and clutch time performer. Moe could create and shoot too. Z and Teske have their strengths, but their weaknesses just can’t be compensated for with the supporting cast. Teams did not have much film on us at the beginning of the year, it was hard to scout us, now their is a huge sample size of every one and teams can exploit our weaknesses. A sweet 16 is a good accomplishment too, just not quite what we had hoped for once we started rolling (and since stopped).

ijohnb

March 10th, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^

Northernmich, I think you will be surprised at how good Michigan looks when we get to a nuetral court and out of the BIG grind.  I was actually encouraged by a lot of what I saw last night in a lot of areas.  1) Iggy has developed into the unquestioned alpha and will be a go-to scorer, 2) Poole is settling down into a more defined role, 3) We have a bench.

We lost, but still answered some questions.  Winston got cooking, it was a ref show and Breslin was up for grabs.  The outcome bears little in this team’s post season outlook.

maize-blue

March 10th, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^

A Sweet 16 appearance could be considered a successful season. Not enough depth or pure shooting to grind it out for a deep tounament run. I wouldn't be surprised if they go down in round 2. Starters will get wore out in close games. Or John B. will keep them out during crucial moments. 

L'Carpetron Do…

March 10th, 2019 at 1:49 AM ^

Is this literally the longest season in history? Is it me or is the tournament much later than usual? Aren't the conference tournaments usually held this weekend and then the NCAA tourney would start next week? I remember the 1st/2nd round always being around St. Patrick's Day. I can't tell if something changed and they bumped it back or if this is just the latest possible date it can be. Either way, I'm tired of waiting for it - watched every game this year and I want to see Michigan conquer it already! GO BLUE! 

Moonlight Graham

March 10th, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^

It was moved up because Delaney wanted to play the B1G tournament in Madison Square Garden for some reason, even though the Big East owns that tournament site, all the branding and mystique around it, and also (of course) the usual weekend. So Delaney made like a second-class conference and took the earlier week just so he could play in MSG, like Chicago or Indy or anywhere in Big Ten country just aren't good enough. Will be glad when he's gone. 

MW147

March 10th, 2019 at 12:36 PM ^

The tournament was a week early because the Big East Tournament has the following week at MSG, and has had it for about 30 years. 

Delaney was so desperate to play in MSG that he accepted playing a week early. Which was great for me as a New Yorker, I got to go to the semis against State and the final against Purdue. 

Carcajou

March 10th, 2019 at 5:08 AM ^

I am generally more concerned about the second (or third) game in a weekend, as depth has been a worry, and they seem to run out of gas sometimes.

But honestly I think this Michigan squad could win or lose any game at any stage of the tournaments this year, against just about any opponent. It mostly depends on how well they play, especially mininimizing the damage of those 5-10 minute cold spells they always seem to go through; the particular matchups and managing the bench; how the officials are calling the games. A very high degree of variablity, so I will not be surprised no matter what happens.

Perkis-Size Me

March 10th, 2019 at 8:28 AM ^

Honestly depends on the draw and what region we get into. Should make it past the round of 64, but after that it’s all a crapshoot. 

If we end up in Duke’s region and Zion is back for the tourney, I don’t see any reasonable way past the Elite Eight. Hell, we could bow out in the first weekend if we run into a mid-major that simply has a hot shooting night. This team’s offense just is what it is at this point, and I can’t reasonably expect them to go back to the way they played in December. This really isn’t like your older brother’s Beilein team that can come back from big scoring deficits. 

Muttley

March 10th, 2019 at 11:43 PM ^

You really think it would be a crap shoot in the round of 32?  Presently Mich is on the 2 line (including the Sparty loss) while the 7s are Lousville, Nova, Cincinatti, and Wofford.

Of course, upsets do occur, but I think we'd be a significant favorite in the round of 32 and a slight favorite in the Sweet 16.  If chalk holds, we'd be a dog thereafter, but last year all of the high seeds fell before they got to Michigan (except Nova).

bluegary

March 10th, 2019 at 8:43 AM ^

We will struggle to make it to the sweet 16. No way we get any farther than that. What happened to the team that played in November? That was a National championship team.

burtcomma

March 10th, 2019 at 8:48 AM ^

Got swept by a Top 10 rival, lost the last game of the year on the road

Rival gets to celebrate a share of the conference championship after the game

3 seed in the conference tourney

26-5 overall record to show for it

Duke has a lot to be proud of....🙄and so does Michigan.....season is not over yet.....