A Post for Those Overly Worried About Next Saturday
This post is for those of you out there that are really worried about the ND game after watching every play of the UConn game in slo-mo HD and coming to the conclusion that our defense played horribly. (Personally I think they played very well, all things considered, but I won't try to convince you.)
First of all, try to realize that although a W this weekend could propel us to an excellent season, a loss is not reason to panic, freak out, or give up on the season.
Looking at our schedule, I knew we needed to win at least 1 of these first 2 games. That's why I was so nervous for UConn, because if we lost that one there would be a huge amount of pressure on the ND game.
Now of course I want to beat the hell out of ND this weekend. It would likely lead us to a 5-0 start with MSU and Iowa coming into Ann Arbor after that.
But if we lose this game, we are still alright. We will still be heavily favored to beat UMass, BGSU, and Indiana. And the key stretch of the season will be MSU, Iowa, and @PSU.
Win 1(!) of those 3, and that puts us at 5 wins with Illinois and Purdue still on the schedule. 7 wins will still be very attainable.
Obviously, I don't want it to be so close that we cannot afford to lose to any inferior teams because we all know how that can go. BUT with an X-factor like Denard, I think Michigan beats the teams they are supposed to beat this season.
Basically, I am writing this post because based on some of the comments I have seen from Michigan fans the past few days, I have a feeling that there will be a big freak out next week if we aren't able to get the road win.
Let's keep everything in perspective and realize that the season will not be won or lost this Saturday in South Bend.
With that being said, I hope we stomp them into the ground.
Go Blue!
September 6th, 2010 at 11:38 PM ^
after reading their commentary on the Mich-UConn game at BSD. You would think that they were 10-5 against us.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:42 PM ^
I am going to reserve judgment on PSU until they play a college football team--but they did look pretty good beating up on players that couldnt get any d1 offers. As far as I know there are no pro prospects or the like at YSU
September 6th, 2010 at 11:46 PM ^
We are a far better team week 2 this year than last IMO. We shredded NDs defense last year and should do so again. No one can say that NDs offense is better off at this point and our defense is not going to be on the field much this week unless our O is scoring quickly--which is fine with me. We dont turn the ball over and I simply dont see how we cannot win this one. It will be sweet to see NDs brief excitement be quashed by UM and MSU racking up 300+ rushing yards each of the next 2 weeks.
September 7th, 2010 at 12:53 PM ^
But they do have a new coach that won't be making the same idiotic decisions as Planet Weis did last year (passing the ball down field instead of running out the clock). Also, "We don't turn the ball over" - for 1 game at home against UConn with three fumbles. It is hardly a pattern after one game. We're still a young team and accidents happen, but we won't be as lucky every time we fumble the ball. And who's to say that their defense didn't progress at all? I'm all for optimism, but some points in this post aren't well thought out.
I believe that we will win this Saturday, but I don't think that it's a sure thing by any means.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:40 PM ^
I appreciate what you are trying to do, however, I will never be satisfied with a mere 7 wins and a Texas/Dallas Bowl. It might be reality, it might happen, it might be the realistic outcome to "accept," but I will never be okay with 7-5.
This weekend can bring so much momentum and hope after the last two years and make fans, the media, the nation believe UM football is back. Or, it could make people believe that my Wolverines are a 7 win team from here on out... a Purdue/Minnesota/MSU of the 2010's. I never want the latter to be my reality.
It's Michigan Football. It belongs on New Year's Day. It deserves a fight for a 10-win season. I will never be satisfied with anything less, no matter how unrealistic.
So, if we happen to lose please send me this message again. But I'm not listening to the "it's not that bad" scenarios before the game is played.
September 7th, 2010 at 12:07 AM ^
I totally understand and agree with the point you are making.
I am just saying that 7 wins is still EASILY attainable with a loss this week. Of course, we could still win 10 as well.
But I think most people's realistic goals (based on the season prediction thread last week), were that Michigan would win 7-8 games.
I want the Maize and Blue to win 13. We all do.
I just want people to keep everything in perspective because a lot of the overreaction the past two seasons (good or bad) has ended up getting ugly.
You do not sound like the kind of person this post applies to. It is more directed toward the people waiting to meltdown in a way that gets mgoblog shut down. I don't want to see that happen.
Of course if we win it wont be a problem.
September 7th, 2010 at 1:11 AM ^
I just want people to keep everything in perspective because a lot of the overreaction the past two seasons (good or bad) has ended up getting ugly.
I don't think it was overreaction to be upset that we went 3-9 and 5-7. I'm as excited as anyone that we kicked ass against Uconn, but the reality is the real season starts with big ten play. We were 4-0 last year too and crashed at the end, so I'm reserving my judgement for later. That said I was excited about Denard Robinson from day 1, and I can't wait to see what else he can do on the field. Maybe this wasn't just a record breaking day, maybe this was just an average game for Denard.
September 7th, 2010 at 7:44 AM ^
September 6th, 2010 at 11:40 PM ^
My one word rebuttal: Floyd. He makes me panicky.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:54 PM ^
I will take my team trying to stop Floyd over my team trying to stop Denard any day.
September 7th, 2010 at 12:50 AM ^
I'd put James Rogers on him - he is legitimately tall and fast, and was with his man all day on Saturday. Everytime I looked in J.T. Floyd's direction, he seemed to be a few feet behind his guy. He may be solid now in his technique, but our Floyd is not a great athlete. James Rogers, though, looked good, much better than the springy freshmen did in garbage time, quite a pleasant surprise.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:43 PM ^
Also, nobody freak out when Denard throws his first INT this weekend. I fear that some will revert to "see, he can't pass" mode the first time he gets picked off this year, despite it being inevitable. All QBs throw INTs. It's not the end of the world as long as the offensive production outweighs the mistakes at the end of the day.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:53 PM ^
September 7th, 2010 at 12:03 AM ^
When every set of eyes on the defensive side of the ball are on the QBs feet, its hard to read his eyes or know where the WRs are on the field.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:55 PM ^
that will be some people's reactions. There are plenty here that are not sold on DR for whatever reason, even after turning in a killer, historic performance against a solid team in his first start as a true Soph. For some reason, the bar is set MUCH higher for Denard to be viewed as an actual QB for these folks...whereas if Tate had turned in Denard's performance last Saturday they'd be re-hanging their Forcier for Heisman posters from last year.
September 7th, 2010 at 12:58 PM ^
Agreed. There are still a whole bunch of people that wish Tate was starting. Do they really want someone as a starting QB who pouted like a little girl during the game? I don't want him anywhere near the field as long as we've got Denard. He has obviously progressed so people need to move on. He's better than Tate, that's why he starts.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:45 PM ^
I would say that I am a little nervous about ND, but as I look at our opponents I get less nevous. What I mean by that is this; I comapered UCONN to Purdue and asked myself who would win between these 2 teams on a neutral field. My personal feeling was that UCONN would win. We beat a superior (IMO) team by more points than they did. Does any of this mean anything? NO but it's my story and I'll use it to soothe my soul anyway I want to.
September 7th, 2010 at 12:18 AM ^
The UConn team we just beat beat ND at the end of last year. But then I remember we beat them as well and go back to needless worrying.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:56 PM ^
Great post. I actually do feel more centered.
If it does end up being 7-5, let it be Insight or one of the Florida bowls. Dallas is miserable. Especially that time of year.
I just want us to keep growing and developing who we are. I want our identity to be cutting edge, fast, tough, together and better prepared for the 4th quarter physicality. That makes us a tough out every game of every season and 10 plus wins yearly. Michigan football is about double digit wins and we should all demand it. I agree with post that stated that.
September 7th, 2010 at 12:03 AM ^
But Lou Holtz slobbered during the half time of the VT-BSU game: "Brian Kelly has done a fantastic job at ND."
I trust Mr. Holtz!!!
September 7th, 2010 at 12:09 AM ^
They beat Purdue. At home. Not by a lot.
September 7th, 2010 at 12:13 AM ^
You may be the most interesting man, but you sir, are no Lou Holtz!!
September 7th, 2010 at 12:11 AM ^
can we catch a damn punt?...boy if it weren't for that fumble and the 2 inches on 4th UConn could have had a game on...what no sacks?...they didn't test the DBs...where are all the washboard ab'd freshman?...where was Big Will?...Brian Kelly out performs - per Phil Stelle...it takes a spread guru to beat a spread guru...injuries are killing Mich...DRob runs too much...I'm so worried...
That feels better. Now I can sleep. (Sorry if that sounds like excessive celebration.)
September 7th, 2010 at 12:15 AM ^
The ND offense is better at passing than UConn. I don't know how Michigan controls receivers Floyd, Rudolph, TJ Jones AND Armando Allen out of the backfield. Crist was very accurate last week, but probably the least mobile QB Kelly has ever had to deal with. The ND OL is young but very talented.
On defense I don't know wheter Brian Kelly and ND will have an answer for Denard Robinson. I think Robinson will have a good day running the ball again and a slightly worse day throwing against the Irish.
Both teams will score quite a few points. The best defense out there will likely be ND's as they have 8 or 9 defensive starters back from last year's group. Combined with ND's home field advantage, Michigan will have to make some big plays, get the lead and keep it - just as they did against UConn.
If MIchigan can keep turnovers down to zero, then I really like their changes to win.
September 7th, 2010 at 12:25 AM ^
...about how UConn's massively awesome line of gargantuan hulking godzilla like merchants of death were going to toss our defense about...about how their linebackers were "among the best in the nation" as a group and how their running game and "the emerging Jordan Todman" and how scary scary they were...
Then, well, "sometimes when you're on" kicked in while watching our first defensive and offensive series.
I would suggest that the team that needs to be nervous is ND...they have never seen RichRod's offense with all the parts running. This explains that freakily eerie confidence he had all through the last week ot two...he knew exactly what sort of hell he'd be unleashing against UConn. Well, what sort of answers does Kelly have for this defensively? Bluntly, what sort of answers does anyone have? And you know RichRod didn't show the playbook last week in it's entirety.
We'll see how Crist reacts to the sort of pressure Roh, Martin and RVB bring...
BK is probably up late enough tonight...he certainly will be the rest of the week. Indeed, how do you stop the freight train that is RichRod's offense fully loaded?
September 7th, 2010 at 3:40 AM ^
"We'll see how Crist reacts to the sort of pressure Roh, Martin and RVB bring..."
Any opposing QB that is slower than Denard Robinson is going to have "rushed pass syndrome" all day, as our guys have been unsuccessfully chasing Robinson all over the field since spring camp started. They are hungry to start racking up sacks - and they will get plenty this season, IMO.
September 7th, 2010 at 2:51 AM ^
September 7th, 2010 at 6:03 AM ^
September 7th, 2010 at 7:49 AM ^
Anyone trying to draw conclusions from the first game of either team and trying to predict a win either way is foolish. Brian Kelly is a very good coach and I can see this game going many ways. I'm with the previous poster in that I think Denard is more of a nightmare to prepare for than anyone on ND's team, HOWEVA, I will never underestimate the defense's ability to keep the opponent in the game. It is also good to keep in mind that Kelly's offense is built to decimate a defense with Michigan's weaknesses.
I hope the defense proves me wrong.
September 7th, 2010 at 8:17 AM ^
1. Catching punts. I know this seems like a highly overspecific worry, but I cannot remember, aside from 06 (the "freak" year), a Michigan game at ND in the last 15 years that did not involve a crushing Michigan dropped/muffed punt. And there is reason to be concerned with that right now. I know that Odoms has had the fumbles in his time at that job, but it doesn't look like our other options are the great right now. I would go back to Odoms, at least he has done it for two years.
2. Lack of consistent vertical passing attack if we fall behind. There were flashes this past week, but consistent was not necessary. ND showed almost nothing against Purdue, and will have some tricks up their sleeve to get on the board early. I think at some point this weekend Denard is going to be called upon to pocket pass for a few consecutive possessions, all signs from last week indicate he can do so, but...
3. The third primary concern for this week is Michael Floyd reopening his leg wound suffered last year in AA, and the camera getting another close up of it. That was very disturbing, not quite like The Pacific, but along the same lines.
September 7th, 2010 at 8:30 AM ^
It might by Saturday, but I doubt it. I was a bundle of nerves before the UConn game. Now its behind us with a W.
ND is a good team, and losing to them is not the end of the world. I am much more concerned about DR's health and durability, frankly, than a single game's W or L.
September 7th, 2010 at 9:08 AM ^
Since we restarted the rivalry in 1978, our record in South Bend is 4-8-1.
We have gone down to South Bend with much, much better teams than we have this year, facing lousier coaches than Brian Kelly, and lost — Notre Dame is an extremely tough road venue to play at, and all manner of unexplainable crap has happened in their favor over the years.
Just as a fr' instance, in 1982 Bo went down there with the #10 team in the country to face knucklehead coach Gerry Faust (just two years earlier he was a high school coach in Ohio) whose Irish were ranked #20, and the knucklehead came away with the win. Whether you attribute it to Touchdown Jesus or the Luck of the damn Irish or just the normal difficulty in winning on the road against good talent, that's up to you. I'm too old and have seen too much football to worry about this sort of thing, but if we come away with a victory, no matter how unimpressively we do it, it will be a damn significant achievement in the historical context of the rivalry.