POST SPRING GAME Overreaction W-L Prediction Thread

Submitted by alum96 on April 15th, 2017 at 6:20 PM

Other than few hijinks in Italy we are about to go full submarine for many months.  So based on what you drank today, have at it...

Last year I went into the fall saying it was a 3 game season - @MSU, @Iowa, @OSU. Overestimated MSU and underestimated Wiscy and Colorado.  The difficulty of big road games still weight over this program even as Harbaugh has ascended.

This year, I say it's a 4 game season - FL (neutral site), @PSU, @WI, OSU.  MSU will always be tough as we are their everything but with about 39 scholarship players looking like they will be available for that game the way things are going, I'm going to mark that down as a win, esp in AA.

Cincy, Air Force (tricky offense), @Purdue, @Debord (no longer chaos), Rutgers, Row The Boat (tm), @Durkin are the 7 other games.  The chance for a slipup @MD as a trap game is possible right ahead of 2 monster games to end the season but I'm calling that 7-0 because this is Michigan fergodsakes.  Add in Mork's Red Lockster, and I give it 8-0. 

So what say you on the final 4 games now that Peters has been installed the 2:1 favorite for Heisman.  Based on WHEN the game happens (UM SHOULD improve dramatically AS THE SEASON goes on, barring a key injury to a thin area due to expansive youth), I'd rank the games in this difficulty based on opponent, location and timing.

  1. OSU -  because always OSU [if not Fickell].  At home but OSU is going to be top 5 most likely and possibly 1 loss-ish (trap games @Iowa, @Nebraska - I guess.  They get PSU at home) , and their youngish team only adds 11 games of experience.
  2. @PSU (mid Oct) - chaos offense with stud RB, in very difficult environment
  3. @UW (right before OSU) - I don't know enough about what Wisconsin returns on offense but they should have a very good defense in a raucous environment.  It's a slugest team built to matchup with what UM does.
  4. UF (neutral, very early but a team with many questions) - 2 youngish teams, should be a defensive slugfest.  First one to 14 wins. 4 months of offensive planning by Harbaugh and Pep >>>> 400 months of planning by Nussmeier.  Wildcard is if Zaire shows up on UF campus.

Discuss! (man)

Comments

BursleyBaitsBus

April 15th, 2017 at 7:47 PM ^

So losses to OSU, PSU and.... UF? or Wisky? 

Losing to Wisky and OSU would mean we end the season on another poor note like 2016. Fuck that. 

 

It's time for Michigan to surprise people and over-perform for a change. 

Insert "getting tired of losing to OSU" post/reaction. 

DrMantisToboggan

April 15th, 2017 at 6:27 PM ^

I think the season will be determined by the Florida game, and I know this is almost never true. Obviously OSU got taken care of in Blacksburg in their first game the year they won the playoffs. However, I think a loss against Florida could prevent a young team from gaining some confidence and momentum and put us on track for a 9-3, 8-4 type year.

 

However, I think we beat Florida by 10 points or so. I think we get that momentum and go on a tear. I think we split PSU and Wisconsin, losing in Wisconsin the week before OSU. I think we take care of OSU at home and get revenge against Wisconsin the next week in Indy. I think 12-1 B1G Champs gets us a 3 seed in the playoffs where we...lose to Florida State. A 12-2 year with a taste of the playoffs primes a super run in 2019 with a ton of talent and experience.

 

Also I have been overly optimistic about every Michigan football team since 1997 so who knows.

SC Wolverine

April 15th, 2017 at 6:46 PM ^

The answer is by having a quarterback who is more experienced so that he doesn't melt down under pressure.  If Wilton is better under pressure and on the road this year, then that alone will make us at least as good of a team.  With the coaching he gets, you have to think this is extremely possible.

AA Forever

April 16th, 2017 at 9:05 AM ^

and can only make up for so much.  We still lose a lot of other talent, and our Oline is not looking any better than last year, maybe worse.  That alone will cost us a game or two.  And let's not forget, Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State all have QBs back with another year of experience.

DrMantisToboggan

April 15th, 2017 at 6:48 PM ^

The two games we lost last year we lost by a combined 4 points. Home field is supposedly worth 3 points. One of those teams we don't play this year, the other (who we really beat last year) we get at home. We get State at home. Our tough road games are Penn State and Wisconisn, who we beat by a combined 63-17 last year.

In terms of replacing talent, we should be fine. OSU had to replace the largest draft class ever last year and all they did was make it to the playoffs. Jim's first two full classes were both top 5 classes, and if we can beat Florida they have a bunch of inferior opponents to get experience against until we go to Penn State. I don't expect our defense to drop off at all, and the talent we are replacing on offense is probably all replaceable, with the only spot that you may notice a difference at being TE. The OL wasn't good last year, but the team and coaching was good enough to almost go undefeated nonetheless.

We will beat the teams that we are more talented than, that is not something we need to worry about under Jim. The season will come down to 4 games, like the OP says: Florida, Penn State, Wisconsin, and OSU. We are going to beat Florida. They are replacing a bunch of talent as well and their offense is trash. They have talented skill players but their OL is average and they are starting a freshman QB. Their coaching is trash and ours is decidedly not. We probably can't win both at PSU and at Wiscy, however, I think Penn State was vastly overrated last year and will be again this year. James Franklin is a bad coach and we will be the more talented team. I think we win in Happy Valley. I think the Wisonsin game will be close, but Chryst isn't bad enough a coach to lose the game and their environment is awesome. We are also looking forward to OSU a bit. We lose a close one in Madison. Next week we get revenge against OSU. Once again, Don Brown shuts down their offense and the difference in crowd and refs is noticed. Our OL has developed enough to hold their own against an excellent DL and we exploit the youth in their secondary. That gets us to 11-1 and in the B1G championship game. On a neutral field we take care of a Wisconsin team that we have more talent than. That's 12-1 and in the playoffs.

DrMantisToboggan

April 15th, 2017 at 7:11 PM ^

This is true, and there are exceptions to the rule. I think the main exception is when you play in a challenging environment, like Iowa or Wisconsin or Penn State or OSU. Teams play weird in harsh environments, as we saw in Iowa City against a team that we had far more talent than. 

 

The MSU win in Columbus is truly an anomaly. OSU had home field and a vast talent advantage. It was kind of shitty weather but not the worst. OSU coaches called the worst football game I have ever watched and I have no idea why. Exceptions prove the rule though, and the rule is that great coaches don't lose to inferior teams unless something strange happens.

DrMantisToboggan

April 15th, 2017 at 10:25 PM ^

You're right, I should have included that we missed 3 field goals against Wisconsin and are replacing our walk on kicker with the #1 kicking prospect in the country (who just hit a 48 yd field goal today that would have been good from 60). It really should have been a combined 72-17. 

 

If you're suggesting that I did not give Wisconsin enough credit, I contend that I did. We dominated Wisconsin. Were it not for a fluke bounce that resulted in a pick, they would not have scored. Were it not for 3 missed field goals on top of that, it would not have been a one score game. If one of those two abnormal things goes the normal way, then nobody remembers that game as being "close". We dominated Wisconsin, we just had 4 plays that went their way that made the game closer than it was.

swan flu

April 15th, 2017 at 6:28 PM ^

A shaky loss to Florida and someone else due to bad-Speight... Peters takes over and runs the table.

ALL ABOARD THE PETERS HYPE TRAIN WOO WOOO!

MichiganMAN47

April 15th, 2017 at 6:27 PM ^

MSU should be on your list. I know they won't be Big Ten champs, but they are the most dangerous 3-9 team I have ever seen.

I think our ceiling is 12-0, I think our floor is 7-5 if we have some key injuries. I'm going with 10-2. We lose to Florida and PSU but find ourselves in the Big Ten Title game.

alum96

April 15th, 2017 at 6:42 PM ^

Those that have been around know I am not one to underestimate them through the years - when I first got here in fact people accused me of being green or something as they were railroading us and I was saying the differences in the staffs was a big problem.  So take that as the backdrop when I say:

You win in the trenches - their OL has as many questions as ours; they have a very good center and a young promising LT.  The rest of it is a big question mark.  Sounds familiar.  Half their DL is under investigation.  They will have 2 very nice DTs (Williams, Panasiuk) much like we should in  - every end rusher is a massive question mark. 

Past that, I like their LBs.  Their DBs are all rebuild aside from Layne who they might need to move back to WR due to the Corley situation.  Their safeties look like a disaster area in Miller & Willis.  I like their RBs, their QB should be ok if he stays healthy but behind him is ether.  I like Trishton Jackson at WR. 

Offseason attrition (unexpected)

  • Best LB, and middle LB (the "communcator) at that
  • Starting RT, 2nd or 3rd best OL on team
  • Possibly best WR or 2nd best.
  • Possibly best DE
  • Possibly the next best DE based on last week's report
  • Possibly a guy slated to be a started S

Take out McDowell and Nicholson and that's a lot of attrition for non usual reasons.  Their depth is shot this year.

They have no depth - they might still be quasi healthy in mid October but that's a team that going to wear down to pieces by November.  Again this game is their super bowl so they will fight hard etc etc but this is a team that can't even sustain 2-3 injuries IMO.  I do think they will have a solid 2018 squad.

war-dawg69

April 15th, 2017 at 7:19 PM ^

Are you kidding me. Maurice is going to be an all-american and Gary who knows. Did you compare their D-line to ours in any way. We could have the best d-line in the country barring injury. I don't even want to go on but we will crush msu by at least four touchdowns this year and that is if we lose the turnover battle. No one will move the ball on this defense period. If you want to compare a defense to Michigan's start with Alabama and you might be close.

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

April 16th, 2017 at 8:39 PM ^

ugly in the 2nd half. JH won't pull off the accelerator at 30-10 at home like EL. MSU will be worse in 2017. They could be awful if Corley or Scott are sideline for any reason.

Our D will be fast and ruthless with the guys on the roster plus Solomon, Luigi, Hudson, Singleton and Jordan. They will hunt MSU and attack Lewerke, Scott and the other mediocre skill guys.