Post-NBA Combine Stock Watch

Submitted by Leaders And Best on May 13th, 2017 at 2:28 PM

ESPN's Chad Ford filed his report post-NBA Combine, and it does not look like DJ Wilson or Moritz Wagner did much to help their stock. Both players made his "All-Go-Back-To-School Team." The report is behind a paywall, but here is the important excerpt:

So who's on the All-Go-Back-To-School Team?

Michigan's Moritz Wagner and D.J. Wilson, Texas' Andrew Jones, SMU's Semi Ojeleye, Purdue's Caleb Swanigan, Maryland's Justin Jackson and Arizona's Rawle Alkins all are in serious risk of not getting drafted in the first round if they stay in the draft. Perhaps one or two make the cut, but most of them are looking firmly at the second round at this point. None of them did enough this week to really push them over the top.

 

Chad Ford was one of the analysts who had them ranked the highest before the combine.

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/19370453/2017-nba-draft-combine-chad-ford-prospects-rising-falling

Sporting News had DJ Wilson listed as a winner from the Combine and Wagner as a question/loser:

— Michigan’s D.J. Wilson is another prospect who had never been measured officially before, but came in with the goods on Thursday. Wilson was over 6-10 with a 7-3 wingspan and a 9-foot-1.5 standing reach that should allow him to not only play the 4, but to slide down to center in some favorable matchup situations. He pulled out of the five-on-five portion of the event with a quad injury.

— Moritz Wagner also got his first set of measurements, and came in slightly under 7-foot with a 7-foot wingspan. Wagner had quite a few defensive problems in college, and those measurements should continue to raise concerns as to whether he has the potential to become a plus player on that end.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/nba-draft-combine-2017-results-measurements-prospects-players-deaaron-fox-harry-giles/jss0za5ig0kw1ez4sfo35vc72

DraftExpress now has DJ Wilson at #30 in their Mock Draft updated yesterday. Wagner is listed as their #86 prospect in their top 100, but I don't think that has been updated since the combine.

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2017/

Neither player was really mentioned positively in SI's post-Combine Stock Watch:

Down: Indecision

There was a relatively small group of underclassmen without agents here, and not many looked especially ready for the big-time. With Jackson taking the plunge, that left Alkins, Andrew Jones, Moritz Wagner, Eric Mika, Justin Jackson, Omer Yurtseven, Thomas Welsh and Svi Mykhailiuk as undecideds in the five-on-five this year. Expect most of them to return to school. There’s also the group of D.J. Wilson (who sat out injured), Caleb Swanigan (who should probably go), Tony Bradley (the buzz was he’s leaning toward going) and Hamidou Diallo (who remains a wild card), who didn’t play fives and are on the fence. Alkins, Jones, Jackson and Wagner all showed strong flashes and unique strengths, but it may take a promise from a team to keep these guys from returning to college.

https://www.si.com/nba/2017/05/12/2017-nba-draft-combine-stock-watch-derrick-white-frank-mason-harry-giles

Comments

rice4114

May 13th, 2017 at 3:07 PM ^

"Dont worry we will take you before the end of the first"

And they are off. There is no negative repercussions to doing this as more talent is always better if you are in that business. Lets hope there are people that arent misleading them. I feel like Darius Morris might have experienced that.

TrueBlue2003

May 13th, 2017 at 10:49 PM ^

the draft rolls around. Deadline to withdraw is May 24th.  If they're promised to be picked and stay in the draft, they have almost a month to hire an agent before the draft.  And if they get screwed over on June 22, that agent will make sure there's hell to pay.

Birdman

May 13th, 2017 at 3:58 PM ^

Anyone watching the nba teams drafting outside the lottery this past month? Neither of these 2 cats are anything close to players. Caleb Swanigan is a maybe! He looks like some one that MIGHT get some time without getting lit up.. Its absurd to think people believe either of the W's pass the nba eyeball test (~yet). Mid second round teams might take a flier, but come on.

JT4104

May 13th, 2017 at 3:54 PM ^

Not Michigan related but Swanigan has no reason to come back. Not sure he can get any better in terms of the type of athlete he is and only reason he goes back is he would hilarious amount of shots on a nightly basis.

hopkinsdrums

May 13th, 2017 at 4:08 PM ^

part of me wants Wilson to go and Wagner to stay to maximize our Bamba chances. I think that could be an incredible outcome. That being said I love DJ...

Frank Chuck

May 13th, 2017 at 9:06 PM ^

I firmly disagree.

I would argue that you need a combination of talent and experience to go far in the NCAAT.

Have you ever looked at the composition of Final Four teams in the one-and-done era? I suggest you do some research. Someone here did a detailed breakdown of every team since the OAD rule was implemented.

You'll see that the overwhelming majority of Final Four teams have at least 3 upperlcassmen in the starting 5 (and usually a few more in the 7-9 man rotation). Hence, 2013 Michigan is the exception and not the rule. Consider our opponent in the NC game: check to see how many juniors and seniors were in Louisville's starting 5 and rotation.

Better yet, look at the 4 Final Four teams this season. How many one and done freshmen or two-and-done sophomores were on the 4 finalists?

If Wagner and Wilson return, it'll give us the best combination of talent *and* experience Beilein has had up to this point at Michigan.

WorldwideTJRob

May 14th, 2017 at 12:49 AM ^

Gonzaga has a player that will be drafted in the lottery who is a one and done player. He was arguably their best player in their semifinal game.UNC benefited from a few shaky calls in the Elite 8. Almost lost to a Kentucky team lead by a Freshmen backcourt. PJ Dozier is a Sophmore and he was the second best player on a final 4 team. Same for Dorsey on Oregon, experience is cool but get talents like Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf and it can change the course for your program for that season.

Frank Chuck

May 14th, 2017 at 5:10 AM ^

You named:

1. Gonzaga's freshman Zach Collins (who was the back-up center)

2. South Carolina's Perry Dozier (who shot 40.7% for the season) 

3. Oregon's Tyler Dorsey

...as the only underclassmen players out of 4 Final Four teams to declare for the draft.

There's a fourth. Freshman Tony Bradley of UNC (a back-up PF) declared but he's expected to return.

Lucky for me, I understand percentages. That 4 players out of 30-35 players (starters + back-ups playing meaingful minutes in the rotation).

I don't care if Kentucky "almost" made the Final Four. The Wildcats didn't. One-and-done talents can raise the ceiling of a team but they don't necessarily translate into a Final Four.

-------------

Experience matters tremendously in college basketball (as in any college sport).

Here are the young(er)* teams that have made the Final Four since the OAD era was implemented in the mid-2000s:
- 2006 Florida
- 2006 UCLA
- 2006 LSU
- 2007 Ohio State
- 2010 Butler
- 2011 Kentucky
- 2012 Kentucky
- 2013 Michigan
- 2014 Kentucky
- 2015 Kentucky
- 2015 Duke

That's 11 teams in 48 total participants (in 12 seasons). In other words, 22.9%.

And only 3 young(er)* teams have won the National Championship 2006 Florida (led by 2 future All-Stars), 2012 Kentucky (led by a generational talent in Anthony Davis), and 2015 Duke (thanks in part to most clutch freshman PG I've ever seen).

*I define a team as "young(er)" when it features 3 or more underclassmen as starters. By my definition, 2006 Florida's core of starting sophomores (Brewer/Horford/Noah) was young. The following season, the core of juniors renders 2007 Florida as an "old(er)" team.

So given that the overwhelming majority (~80%) of Final Four teams are led by experienced starting 5s, I think you severely underestimate the significance of experienced (re: junior/senior) players in college basketball.

remdog

May 13th, 2017 at 4:24 PM ^

Picks or late first rounders if lucky, they should stay in school. The only caveat is the uncertainty of injury. But they both have much to gain by waiting another year.

Doesn't it seem like Beilein's top players are usually eager to jump to the NBA early? Maybe it just seems that way but anybody who starts to blossom seems to have one foot out the door the next day.

TheReal_GR3

May 13th, 2017 at 4:24 PM ^

Wagner seems sure to come back. Wilson on the other hand will probably stay. He seems like he would be a great fit for any of the contenders (Warriors, Cavs, Spurs). He is a "3-D" big and will be able to switch on screens. However coming back and improving his rebounding and ball handling could move him into the lottery area.

That's one of the questions you have to ask if you are on the edge. Can I improve my game enough to be able to move up next year? What factors play into that?

For example if I were Swanigan I'd stay in the draft because I don't see how he improves on last season. Contending teams will value a smart player off the bench who can rebound and play with length, while having touch around the basket. The only thing he can really do is get in better shape and even then there is no way he puts us stats to compare with this past season. 

Wagner and Wilson both have a wide range of things they can improve on but if I'm Wilson I do wonder about the type of shots I'd get without Wilson. Could he get more? Yes, will they be as easy or as open without Walton? Probably not. 

On top of that WIlson had the injury to think of. Will he be able to workout for teams? If so, when? 

Lots of questions for Wilson, hard choice to make. 

Maynard

May 13th, 2017 at 6:01 PM ^

Swanigan will go in the first round, mid to late. He may end up on a good team sort of like Leonard did going to the Spurs. Both of the Michigan guys should come back to school, especially Wagner as he is improving so fast that he might vault himself into the top 10 for next year.

WorldwideTJRob

May 13th, 2017 at 8:08 PM ^

Nah, the kid can play but the future NBA big man is in the Gobert and Deandre Jordan mold. Block shots, rebound and dive to the rim off pick & roll. Swanigan has a nice post game and a jumper, but would be a liability on defense. DJ is much more valuable in the league than Swanigan is.

Maynard

May 13th, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^

Nope. The league is constantly evolving but there is always room for talented players of just about every type. Additionally, we are living in the present, not the future. DJ has a lot of potential and I get that players get drafted on potential more and more, but DJ is not as good as Swanigan and teams in the back half of the first round are many times looking for guys that can contribute the next season.

WorldwideTJRob

May 14th, 2017 at 1:01 AM ^

He's not, I wasn't arguing that he was. Just that his upside and skill set is more coveted by NBA teams. Josh Hart and Frank Mason are better than 90 percent of the kids in the draft as of right now but both will struggle to get drafted. Look at a kid like Thon Maker, most thought he was a reach when the Bucks drafted him. Yet he was a starter on a playoff team by the end of the year. Height and length is what's winning out in the league right now. DJ has both of these, Swanigan doesn't. Look I want DJ back next year just like most of us, but I would be lying to myself if I couldn't see why NBA teams are intrigued with him.

maquih

May 15th, 2017 at 5:01 AM ^

I think both will come back, and Charles Matthews might be better than either of them!  We should have an excellent team next year!