Playoff Path Just Got a Lot Clearer

Submitted by BursleyHall82 on

With Stanford and Utah losing today, the Pac-12 would appear to be out of the CFP picture. That leaves the other four P5 conferences and Notre Dame. So just three things have to happen now for us to make the four-team field:

- OSU beats MSU next week.

- Stanford beats Notre Dame.

- We win out, and beat Iowa in the B1G title game.

- It's also possible that the Big 12 will cannibalize itself in the next two weeks and lose out on a spot.

Right now, the ACC (Clemson) and SEC (Alabama) appear to be in. The B1G champ has a great case for the third spot, so Michigan just needs to be the B1G champ.

Harbaugh took a bunch of guys who went 5-7 last year, and a quarterback that Iowa didn't want, and he's got us in the CFP conversation in late November. He's good.

Mr. Yost

November 15th, 2015 at 10:04 AM ^

Michigan and a B1G Championship?

Conference championships DON'T MATTER...when will people get this? They say it every week and we're always like "naaah, you're lying to us." You may not agree with it, but that's how it is.

The thing that matters is that those who play in conference championship game get an extra quality game on their resume. That's what killed TCU and Baylor last year. OSU was playing Wisconsin and destroying them and TCU and Baylor were playing Iowa St. or some crap teams as their 12 game of the year. OSU had an extra game and thus an extra quality win.

Jeff Long even said "we don't grade on a curve...if someone has more opportunities, then good for them. We don't say well team X played 12 and team Y played 13."

THAT is what matters...but the SEC and B1G both play 13 games when you talk about the 4 teams in the conference championship games between the two conferences...so it'll just be resume vs. resume. Winning a title isn't going to matter -- even though, it probably should.

It ain't right...but I'm not going to say for certain Bama wouldn't be in over Michigan.

Mr. Yost

November 15th, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^

Are you saying a 3 or 4 or 5 loss Iowa team who wins a conference championship game should be in over a 2 loss Bama that doesn't win? When the goal is to get the 4 best teams in college football?

Or flip it because the SEC East isn't strong. A 4 or 5 loss Georgia team who wins a SEC Champ should get in over a 1 or 2 loss Michigan who doesn't win the B1G?

Both of those would be insane.

The committee does not take conference championships into account. I don't agree with it, but that's how it is...so if we're going to sit here and speculate. We shouldn't make up criteria when they don't exist.

I think a 2-loss Michigan team should be in over a non-SEC champion for SURE because I don't consider MSU a "real" loss. So I use some common sense and say Michigan dominated that game and loss on a fluke play...so they get a .5 from me. 

But is the committee going to say that? The SEC loving committee...are you SO positive that they're just going to jump Michigan ahead. I wouldn't be so sure.

THAT is what I'm saying.

bdneely4

November 15th, 2015 at 10:55 AM ^

On the conference championship not meaning anything with your scenario above with a 3,4 or 5 loss team winning their conference. But that is not what Michigan's scenario would be. With two losses and a conference championship Michigan would have to be in a much better position than Bama and in this case I believe the conference championship would matter.
In all honesty, it is just great that we even get to speculate and debate this in year 1 of Harbaugh instead of what we were doing last year.
Go Blue!

UMForLife

November 15th, 2015 at 10:25 AM ^

You are right about 3 or 4 loss conference champion not getting in. This could very well happen in PAC-12 this year. If FSU beats FL, but FL goes on to beat AL,then AL would not have too many quality wins. Their best win would have been against LSU, which got rolled over by ARK. If ND wins out, OK wins out and M wins out, then it would look like this:

Clemson (assuming win out): #1

Three of the spots would have to go to

ND, OK, M, FL, AL, PAC-12 champion.

They would claim that OK and ND have one loss. so, they are in.

Between M, FL, AL, PAC-12 champion, it would be easy to eliminate PAC-12 as they wouldn't have too many good teams in the conference.

It would come down to M, FL and AL. I easily see them taking FL saying that they beat the Almighty Alabama. I think OSU having only one quality win (against MSU) will hurt us.

 

schreibee

November 15th, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^

Look, THE MOST IMPORTANT thing is Michigan winning - regardless of any of these speculative scenarios.

After the 2OT win vs Indiana how can well over 200 people even have spent this much time and effort fantasizing about the CFP?!

I mean, as an exercise in figuring out who to root against in all these other games - sure, why not?

But getting emotionally invested in our pathway to the CFP after that multiple penalty, sloppy ST, atrocious D performance? Not seeing it... Let's say that if all these scenarios somehow play out & we end up in the Rose Bowl (horror of horrors /s) - are we really gonna spend the entire rest of the winter (or of our lives) bitching about that?!
Cumong Man!

schreibee

November 15th, 2015 at 1:45 PM ^

What you should do is follow Bo's lead:

The goal is winning the B1G and going to the Rose Bowl. Anything else is gravy...

And after that narrow 2OT escape and all the attending problems, spending a lot of time and brain power charting a route where that outcome is no longer celebrated is actually a bit like asking for gravy on your Birthday cake!

 

The Brain

November 15th, 2015 at 2:07 AM ^

Suggesting we have a small chance is one thing.  But this is the 4th thread on the playoffs tonight.  People evidently believe that this is a very real possibility, and that's nuts.  This team squeaked by Minnesota and Indiana, has one victory over a ranked team, and has a devastating injury situation.  Tons of toughness and heart, but come on.  Get real.

The Brain

November 15th, 2015 at 2:25 AM ^

Again, OSU has zero losses.  We have two.  Not sure why that's so hard to understand.

And sure, if UM wins out, they might have a shot.  But when was the last team we beat a top ten team?  And now we're going to beat two in three weeks with massive injury problems, no running game, and zero offensive playmakers?  Sorry, but to me that's pure delusion.

Asquaredroot

November 15th, 2015 at 2:41 AM ^

I think you're getting a little over dramatic...

  • 0 offensive playmakers?  I count 3: Rudock Peppers Butt... say that 3 times fast!
  • Massive injury problems? Ryan Glasgow is a significant injury, I'll give you that... Ojemudia... also an impact but if RJS remains healthy it's not a big drop.  Who else?  Possibly Dymonte Thomas.  MASSIVE is not an accurate descriptor.  I have no data, but I'll guess at least half of FBS teams are worse off w/injuries to starters.

That said, I find it unlikely that we'll win the B1G... but dammit, I'll HOPE we do.

raleighwood

November 15th, 2015 at 9:17 AM ^

You're forgetting Mone.  Between Mone, Glasgow and Ojemudia.....Michigan is missing three of the top eight in the two deep for the front four.  Massive might be extreme, but I'd say that the injury situation is significant (and that was very apparent yesterday).

You could argue that Mone hasn't been available all season and the defense was effective without him, but he's been eliminated from the depth and that has an impact.

BigBlue02

November 15th, 2015 at 2:56 AM ^

Delusion is thinking the last time we beat a top 10 team matters at all. Why should I care if Hoke or RichRod could beat top 10 team? If you don't think Harbaugh can game plan to beat an OSU team that looked just as bad as we did against Indiana and an Iowa team that could have lost to either Indiana or Minnesota (sound familiar) then you're the one that's delusional. The last time OSU beat a top 10 team was last year, so I guess that means there is no way they can rattle off wins against MSU and us, right?