Playing with the Class Calculator on 247

Submitted by Yessir on

Yeah, I'm bored.  

Just for shitz n grinz I subtracted N Harris from Bama.  Added Harris, Nico, Filiaga and Solomon to the good guys and ended up at roughly 300 for each team.  That sort of shows the lead Bama has up to this point.  Granted, Bama will add a player or 3, especially if Harris would decommit. 

My guess is Nico and Filiaga will be Blue and our chances might be better for Harris than they are for Solomon.  Who knows. It isn't that far out of the range of possibilities to add those 4.

IMO, Recruiting is like a drive in golf to use a golf analogy.  Saban, Meyer, Harbaugh and Smart all hit their drives and you could throw a blanket on top of the drives.  They are all good classes.  Its what they do with the 2nd shot and putting, development, etc will make a team successful. 

Dontonio's drive is back about 40 yards and in the rough, btw.  Poor Sparty!

Go Blue!

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CalifExile

December 26th, 2016 at 8:50 PM ^

If we add Filiaga that makes 5 OT, with at least 2 who may fit well at OG. It's not surprising that some would start to think of looking elsewhere but it's unfortunate if Herbert might be the guy to leave, of the current commits he seems most likely to step in and get significant snaps next year.

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anywaytodelete…

December 26th, 2016 at 5:43 PM ^

There's much to be said for elite talent/playmakers -- something Michigan didn't have enough of this year.  5 stars (top 10/top 30) seems like a reasonably good measuring stick for the number of truly elite players in a class, and this is where Michigan will fall short this year.  By how much?  Remains TBD.

On the other hand, I think a pretty good formula for success is 1) a good, experienced quarterback, 2) a strong OL to protect him, 3) a really solid DL, 4) plenty of depth along both lines.  OL and DL seem to be the most critical areas to fill for the end of the recruiting cycle, but there isn't much top end talent left on the board, barring a shocking flip of a committed recruit.  

If Speight makes a leap next year and we have a more than capable backup (Peters, hopefully), we should have #1 covered.  Brown seems like a pretty good bet for masking any inexperience/weaknesses/lack of depth on the defensive side against all but the most talented and efficient offenses.  Team did pretty damn well against OSU with only one 5-star, so there's reason to be optimistic.

Hopefully the merits we all see in the university, Harbaugh, the upward trend of the program, the opportunity for early playing team, etc. will be viewed similarly by Solomon and/or Tufele. Beyond Filiaga or a flip, have to hope for a diamond in the rough or far better insight by the coaching staff than the recruiting services AND other top coaches.

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Hard-Baughlls

December 26th, 2016 at 6:40 PM ^

but when it comes to O-line and even some other positions, it's really about strength in numbers as it's hard to project out on an individual basis.  IE, you want as many 4 and 5 star players as possible shoved in to a class, hence the history of SEC / Saban oversigning to get that edge for when players don't pan out. Sometimes getting 4 - 4 stars can play out better than 2- 5 starts, etc

I'd take the slightly lower star rating and 5-6 more top 300 prospects, especially if they are given 3-4 years to develop under this staff.

All else being equal (talent, luck, officiating), I'd take Harbaugh over any coach in the country, with Saban a close second.  Meyer is great, but he mostly out-talents his opponents, and his offensive system is not flexible and has been exposed numerous time by even Sparty / Narduzzi - 3 star recruits.  Kirby Smart?  Guy needs to show something on the field before I put him in the class of the other coaches.

Harbaugh - has succeeded on every level, built programs and pro teams from the ground up, and is flexible enough to coach whatever system or players work best for the team.  He will have his championships soon enough.

Saban has 5 national titles...no argument there.  Only blemish was his failure as an NFL coach.

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michiganfanforlife

December 26th, 2016 at 6:59 PM ^

Spoken like someone who has not witnessed how good Harbaugh is at talent evaluation. Remember that these recruiting services are not coaches, and while they have all the time in the world to evaluate these guys they aren't really amazing or someone would be paying them on a D1 staff. I know all the data about 4/5 star players vs others, and in general it's better to have more higher rated prospects. There is no doubt in my mind that Harbaugh is better at this than anyone at any recruiting service. The guys we're getting are monsters, and will be developed and taught better than any other team in the nation. We are still just at the beginning of this journey, and still ahead of schedule. Think about three years ago, and then remind yourself about your disappointment that we missed the playoffs this year. If you see this class through Harbaugh's glasses, he's getting most of the guys he wants that will best fit his system and modus operandi. Not only is this class the highest rated in a long time, they are who HE thinks will work best and that's what is most important. Stop worrying and just enjoy the ride my pessimistic brethren. Michigan is back

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anywaytodelete…

December 26th, 2016 at 8:33 PM ^

Harbaugh's done an amazing job so far and is bringing in talent that will upgrade the roster. There may be a few players in every class in which he sees something that others miss, but for the most part I suspect these will be players who excel in specific situations rather than All-Americans in waiting that other top coaches (as well as the recruiting services) fail to recognize.  Perhaps there will be some exceptions among players with great raw ability who are either poorly scouted, relatively new to football, or play against inferior competition (e.g., Kwity Paye, Josh Uche, and O'Maury Samuels - if he sticks).

However, I'd still much rather that Harbaugh and staff have the opportunity to develop an Aubrey Solomon or a Darnay Holmes than someone who is middle to bottom of the pack in the Top 300 and lacks outstanding measurables.  Look at how incredibly valuable Jabrill Peppers has been as a punt returner. It's just much easier to win with explosive playmakers...who are also really good at football. We simply need moar.

Hopefully we'll get a couple more in the final recruiting stretch and then regularly get 3/4+ each year going forward.

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TrueBlue2003

December 27th, 2016 at 3:20 PM ^

these services aren't evaluating recruits without input from coaches.  They get input from every single coach in America based on whether they have a scholarship offer and from which schools they do.  If a guy has an offer from Saban, Meyer and Harbaugh, that's more valuable information than anyone can discern from a small sample size of HS games.  And those are data points the services use.  There's a reason the star rankings are good predictors of future success.

And yes, we are getting a very good class.  Are there better classes? Yes.  Are there guys that Harbaugh wishes he had, but didn't get? Yes. And are there other elite talent identifiers and developers out there? Yes.  That's all anyone is saying.

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alum96

December 26th, 2016 at 5:48 PM ^

The obsession with hitting 300 is a bit silly.  We will have a monster class.  A year from now the same people with this obsession will say "it's not about quantity it's about quality" as we rank #9 or something with 24 players.

Bottom line - OSU is putting together a class with an average player rank we might never see again - their 17 players rank higher than our 26!.  Bama is Bama, and Georgia has a  great class - their 20 players are ranking higher than our 26 as a group. (GA average rank is higher than Bama's!).

Bottom line is if you are getting "90" as your average over multiple years for 247 ranking you have a hell of a crop of players and it's up to coaches to find a way from there.  UM is there with Oklahoma, FSU, LSU types which is fine.  We've had 2 giant  classes back to back so "Harbaugh guys" are going to be all over this program.  Now Harbaugh guys have to beat Saban and Urban guys.

p.s. I still like our chances for Jordan Elliott....

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pmark1210

December 26th, 2016 at 5:57 PM ^

Not necessarily you, but there have been several references about a 300 score by a lot of folks. I think he means in general.

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MichiganMan14

December 26th, 2016 at 5:59 PM ^

Harris is obviously an amazing player and Nico is phenomenal but Michigan needs impact linemen to fill out the 2 deep next season. I don't see why they don't go 4 for 4 and possibly add Gay but crootin' stings sometimes. If Michigan can pull off these next 4 guys.....I have not see a recruiting class like this at Michigan....ever. It makes last year look like a Beta class.

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BoFlex

December 26th, 2016 at 9:04 PM ^

It is completely dependent on how many of their underclassmen declare early for the draft. Last year they have 9 underclassmen declare early, and this season they have a handful of underclassmen who are projected in the first 3-4 rounds again:

  1. DE Tyquan Lewis
  2. DE Sam Hubbard
  3. LB Raekwon McMillian
  4. S Malik Hooker
  5. CB Marshon Lattimore
  6. CB Gareon Conley
  7. HB/WR Curtis Samuel
  8. OG Billy Price

 

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Michifornia

December 26th, 2016 at 6:03 PM ^

Hopefully, it's just a request by Harbaugh for the Signing of the Stars?  Otherwise, why wait so long?  Or just likes to create drama.  Would love to have him join our stout receiving corps!

GO BLUE!!

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Perkis-Size Me

December 26th, 2016 at 7:14 PM ^

They'll have a full class. The question will of course be on its quality. They're getting to a point where they may have to start making 11th hour offers to guys committed to G5 schools, like Central Michigan, Ohio or BGSU.

Honestly their situation right now is reminding me a bit of our basketball team. Almost got to the mountaintop, and completely failed to capitalize on any of the momentum we'd gained from a title run and several conference titles. Then they fall apart and the glory years feel like a lifetime ago.

If MSU doesn't have a big bounce back season next year, they're going to end up right back where they started when Dantonio took over, if they're not there already: a boring, meh, second-tier B1G program.



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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

December 26th, 2016 at 8:22 PM ^

rebound above .500 will help - their roster is taking a lot of hits this offseason and they couldn't sell the recent success & playing time. Their only RB commit had ACL surgery, recruits are choosing 3rd tier schools like Colo State and UK, and they will have no PR with the draft or preseason to boost any 2018 momentum. I think it's very possible that 2-3 scholarships are vacant at NSD. Agree to some degree on the comparison to UM BB. Beilein certainly missed a chance to leverage the NC game prestige into some great recruits. Conversely, Dantonio has a roster disaster (6th yr LB, transfer DL, WR playing CB, DL moving to OL in middle of the season, etc) that indicate a deeper program issue.

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WindyCityBlue

December 26th, 2016 at 8:24 PM ^

On one of the wtka shows a few weeks back...

...Brian (of mgoblog) said pretty much the same thing about the parallels between MSU football and Michigan basketball. He mostly drew the parallel between the coaches more so than the actual programs themselves. I believe he said that both h MD and JB will finish their respective careers with a "giant fart noise"

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reddogrjw

December 26th, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^

is that the "lower" end is filled with high 3-stars - every 247 composite 3-star except Taylor is a 4-star on at least one site

 

this class is filling up an entire starting 22 except TE - andwe're still adding

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