Pickin' & Grinnin' - NFL Conf Championship Games and Super Bowl Predictions

Submitted by xtramelanin on

Mates,

So we are getting down to the nitty gritty of the NFL season and the conference championship games are tomorrow.  As expected, the NE Bradys are in it against a very unlikely foe, Jacksonville.  The Jags had an amazingly good season despite having Blake Bortles as their QB.  Go figure.  The Pats are favored by 7 1/2 points and the game is at NE.  Additional mystery in this game is Brady's injured throwing hand.  I disagreed with NEs reasoning when they traded Garoppolo, their back-up QB, mid-season and this scenario is precisely why.  I think the Pats signed Brian Hoyer as their back-up QB.  We'll see if that comes back to haunt them. 

AFC Game:     @NE    7.5    Jax     3:05 on CBS

In the NFC you have an equally unlikely match-up, the Vikings are visiting the Eagles and the Vikings are 3 point favorites.  The Eagles made it to the NFC championship game for the first time since when, the Donovan McNabb years?  They made it on the strength of their 2nd year QB, Carson Wentz who is also out of the game after a freak knee injury diving for a first down/TD at the end of the season.   They are underdogs at home and that could end up being a fun game to watch.

NFC Game:     Minn      3      @Philly   6:40 on Fox

So, 2 questions:  Remembering to pick with the points, who do you have in these games?  Second question, who is going to the Super Bowl?

Hope you are well and drinking your coffee on this warming, (supposed to be) sunny Saturday a.m., except for you, M & M boys, you probably have a Kaluha and tomatoe juice going.  I don't get that, but some day I'll get the guts to try it.  Not working for the first time in weeks, but will be mucking out the hen house today since the warming unfreezes the, uhm, muck. 

XM

 

MGoBoard
Football

Don

January 20th, 2018 at 7:36 AM ^

NE over Jax; if Brady is really hurt, this will be a nailbiter

Philly over MN in a close game; I will never pick a dome team playing outside in January

Joined: 06/30/2008

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badandboujee

January 20th, 2018 at 7:44 AM ^

NE and Philly. 

As a Brady fan (because duh) living in Philly, this would be an interesting matchup in terms of rooting interests

Joined: 01/10/2017

MGoPoints: 4073

carolina blue

January 20th, 2018 at 7:50 AM ^

I pick the pats to win. But I gotta say I am VERY impressed with the Jags. I’m taking the Jags to cover, and it would not shock me if they won. They are legit. On the NFC side...I’ll take the Vikings.

Joined: 02/12/2014

MGoPoints: 30251

1VaBlue1

January 20th, 2018 at 7:51 AM ^

I don't know if the Vikes cashed in thier entire luck account last week, but getting Philly without Wentz is a bonus.  I can't see Philly getting past the Viking D without Wentz.  But Don does make a good point about dome teams and January...  Nope - Vikings.

Pats.  Brady will play because Belichick subterfuge.

Joined: 01/31/2016

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His Dudeness

January 20th, 2018 at 8:02 AM ^

Down to my last $100 after last week's murder. I still say fire Tomlin. The guy is awful in games despite having the best WR and RB (arguably) in the game. Anyway my pick. Teaser 7-points NE down to -2 MINN up to +3.5 Bet $50 to win $35 I would have bet all $100 but just in case I want to be able to have some action on the super bowl.

Joined: 11/24/2008

MGoPoints: -973290

xtramelanin

January 20th, 2018 at 9:18 AM ^

with my investigators.  we'd stay at this relatively tiny hotel in nowheres-ville nevada in the sierras, but it had a small casino and sports book.  not a casino guy, but i was still playing football so i'd pick up 2 or 3 football cards and see if i could pick three or 4 for each card.  i'd put maybe $20 or $30 total on them, hand 'em in on friday and we'd go hunting the rest of the weekend.,

I don't think i ever had a net loss of money for any one weekend and of course the 'big' payout might've been $250.  only did it a couple of times a year but they were fun.

Joined: 12/09/2014

MGoPoints: 15439

jdon

January 20th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^

when you break the bet down to its two parts

the underdog adding points wins 80% of the time

the favorite adding points wins 60% of the time.

that is a huge difference!

 

also, my bookie says the 10 point dip only pay out less than 40% of the time.

 

That said:  Minny plus 6, philly plus 13, under 49 seems likea  good bet to me.

 

Joined: 09/28/2009

MGoPoints: 5906

Remember the Alamo

January 20th, 2018 at 8:12 AM ^

I am taking the Patriots and Vikings to cover. If that happens, that would be a great SB matchup and not sure what the spread would be or who I would pick.

Joined: 01/13/2018

MGoPoints: 61

xtramelanin

January 20th, 2018 at 8:17 AM ^

fan, wants the vikings to win and get to the super bowl.  i think that is more easily understandable because its not like the other team will flip your recruits or get better rankings if they win.  its a much more compartimentalized impact if a pro team who is a rival wins the game.  if NE doesn't make the super bowl and the vikings do, i think i'll be pulling for minny also. 

Joined: 12/09/2014

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Remember the Alamo

January 20th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^

I thought for sure the Vikings had won a SB in the 70s, but i looked it up and nope. NE is the only one of the four that has won. If Jacksonville were to win tomorrow, it would be hard to root against them just because it feels like they never will win a SB. I guess seeing a somewhat new expansion team in that situation is interesting.

Joined: 01/13/2018

MGoPoints: 61

butuka21

January 20th, 2018 at 8:19 AM ^

Think I going pats under teaser same thing Vikings.

The jags scare me as these are the teams that usually beat Brady that can get pressure, but the bortles vs. Brady is really what it boils down to for me.

Joined: 11/22/2016

MGoPoints: 2889

Perkis-Size Me

January 20th, 2018 at 8:54 AM ^

I got the Pats over the Jags in a really close, somewhat ugly game. If this game wasn't in Foxboro I'd probably pick the Jags, simply because this is the kind of team that usually beats New England in the postseason. A defense with a relentless, ferocious pass rush that can get after Brady and disrupt him all night. Just like the Giants and the Broncos did to him. Which I think the Jags will do as well and limit NE's success on offense. But the bigger question is whether or not Bortles can still outduel Brady, and on the road, I'm not sure he can. Beating Roethlisberger is one thing. Beating the GOAT is something else entirely. Pats 21, Jags 14, but I absolutely give the Jags a chance here. If the defense can continue to play at a high level and Bortles can at least be average and move the chains, they've got a shot. 

Eagles vs. Vikings is a total crapshoot for me. I'd like to see the Vikings win because it'd be a really cool to see the first team to ever play a Super Bowl home game. And you've got to love what Case Keenum has been able to do with coming out of nowhere this season. The Eagles defense is great, and they're at home, but this may be the game where we see on full display that Nick Foles just isn't Carson Wentz. If Wentz was healthy I'd take the Eagles, but I got the Vikings riding high after last week's miracle win and beating Philly 31-24. But it could just as easily go the other way. 

Joined: 11/30/2011

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turtleboy

January 20th, 2018 at 9:03 AM ^

I'll rank them in order of my opinion: Pats, Jags, Vikings, Eagles. Had the saints gone through I'd put them at #2 because of the experienced qb. Really this is about the greatest qb ever, vs an average 4th year qb, and 2 backups.

Joined: 04/22/2011

MGoPoints: 35131

LSAClassOf2000

January 20th, 2018 at 9:11 AM ^

I'll go with New England by a margin directly proportional to the state of Tom Brady's hand, even though there are Twitter rumblings that they might start Brian Hoyer and see where it goes. 

In the other game, I will go with Philadelphia. Like Don, I have this mistrust of dome teams playing in the elements - particularly in the northern US - in the postseason. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130603

Don

January 20th, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^

The numbers aren't good. Per Bill Simmons:

"RULE NO. 7: Beware of all dome teams playing outdoors, especially in cold weather.

Before Round 1 in January ’14, I thanked Chase Stuart for the following stat: “Dome teams are 3-22 in the playoffs when they’re outdoors and it’s 35 degrees or colder.” The next day, New Orleans won in Philly in 25-degree weather. Whoops. The following year, the Cowboys lost in 24-degree Lambeau weather to make it 4-23 overall. Tuck this stat away in case the Falcons or Saints travel to Philly next weekend."

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/1/5/16853506/nfl-playoffs-gambling-m…

I'm not a statistician, but I don't believe that 4-23 is random flukiness. Recently I looked at the record of dome teams that had made it to the Super Bowl, and in virtually every instance the dome team had home field advantage in the playoffs leading up to the SB.

This is why I believe the Lions will never get to the SB unless/until they get home field advantage for the playoffs. Which is why I've believed since 1975 that the Lions made a colossal franchise mistake by building the Silverdome—they permanently gave up a home field weather advantage that other cold weather teams have against warm-weather teams late in the season.

The Lions have played their home games in a dome for the past 43 seasons.

Their cumulative record in November, December, and January on the road against cold weather teams is 22-74.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 148278

ThatTCGuy

January 20th, 2018 at 9:47 AM ^

As a Brady fan, I can't bring myself to pick against him. Especially considering that it's the GOAT going up against the worst starter in the league. Also, the reports coming out of NE are that Brady looked really good in practice yesterday and he should be fine for the game. Patriots 27, Jaguars 10. Everything seems to be pointing the Eagles' way here. The Vikings are a dome team playing outside in January that needed a miracle to get past the Saints (I think there might be some sort of burnout there.) The Eagles also have the best roster in the league, in my opinion. They have three backs who could start for 80% of teams, a solid WR core, the best OL in the NFL, and a DL that can rotate 8 guys in and out without much of a dropoff. Eagles 17, Vikings 13.

Joined: 01/20/2015

MGoPoints: 3544

Badger

January 20th, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^

Everyone is talking up the Jaguars like they are world-beaters on defense. The Steelers had their way with that D, but granted they do have the best offense in football. I will agree with all that speedy youth and talent they make plays happen if you make mistakes. I'm thinking the Patriots will not make the same mistakes Pittsburgh made last week. I know regular season doesn't matter anymore but this is a Jaguars team that lost to the Jets, Cardinals, 49ers (torn apart by Jimmy Garoppolo), and Titans (twice!). There's a reason they lost 6 games. The Patriots have the best coaching staff in the NFL and I believe they'll find enough weaknesses in that D and Jacksonville will not be able to keep up with Bortles reverting back to normal Bortles. Patriots win 27-10. The other game's a toss up. If Foles can manage to not throw the game away, Eagles can win at home. Dome curse usually applies. Ring #6 for Brady. Unless his thumb fell off like Twitter thinks.

Joined: 08/14/2011

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old98blue

January 20th, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^

I said last year I wanted Brady to win one more just to have more than any other QB in history. But now I want him to win one more to  cement it. I just don't see anyone playing at the top of their game long enough to make a run like this. GO PATS GO GOAT GO BLUE

Joined: 11/16/2015

MGoPoints: 4450

MIGHTYMOJO91

January 20th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^

Have a bad gut feeling Jags will pull the upset. :(  Brady no doubt will play in the game, just think Jags D will rise to the occasion despite the mystery injury to Tom. Pulling for Minny as Keenum is from my neck of the woods but expect Philly to cover and pull it off. SB will be lackluster if Pats aren't in it. Hope they are though and the GOAT gets another ring. Fingers crossed!

Joined: 11/28/2015

MGoPoints: 4532

Maynard

January 20th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^

Jags and Vikings. Defensive showdown in the Super Bowl. 

Fournette has a good day as well as Jalen Ramsey. And Nick Foles against the Minnesota defense? Not buying him to get it done.

Joined: 02/19/2016

MGoPoints: 9888

jdon

January 20th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^

I like both the dogs.

If brady plays that number will increase, and I will bet 200 on jacksonville.  If brady doesn't play the spread will plummet, and I will play parlay jacksonville and the under 40 to win 200.

I like jacksonville due to their defensive line and the historical performance of the patriots vs. strong defensive lines...

 

 

for philly and minny,

I think minnesota probably wins, but if i can get a home team getting points in the championship game i am taking those points and laughing all the way to the bank.  probably bet 50$ on philly.   

Note: I like the over in this game and expect one of the defenses to score.

 

good luck friends!

jdon

 

Joined: 09/28/2009

MGoPoints: 5906

The Krusty Kra…

January 20th, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^

Even if New England does win, that AFC game has 17-12 written all over it regardless of the winner. I'm pulling for Jacksonville to see something different and I would take joy in Boston sports fans having to spend the entire offseason knowing they lost to Blake Bortles. On the other side, I think Minnesota should take care of business fairly easily. Eagles game against the Falcons was UGLY and despite how good Philly's D is, after how that game ended on Sunday, I am a firm believer in the Case Keenum Victory Waffle express.

Joined: 02/22/2017

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BIGWEENIE

January 20th, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^

Big Pats fan but that D the Jags have are Tom Bradys worst nightmare. So could use Edleman.

Jags 17 NE 10

Minn crushes Philly. I dont know crap by the way.

 

Joined: 11/29/2010

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