Phil Steele's BIG Update

Submitted by massblue on

Phil Steele has updated his BIG rankings.  Surprisingly, he still has UM a 7 point underdog to OSU. I suppose he thinks by the time the two teams meet, Barrett will be good enough to beat UM.  His view on UM's defense is very positive, which makes this even more puzzling.

 

3. Michigan Wolverines
Projected record: 8-4
Early lines on toughest games: at Michigan State (plus-7), at Ohio State (plus-7)
 
After notching a BCS bowl win in his first season, coach Brady Hoke and the Wolverines have suffered back-to-back disappointing seasons, and Hoke already finds himself on the hot seat. Good news for Michigan fans is the return of 15 starters, which includes my No. 1 set of Big Ten LBs and DBs.
 
The bad news is that the Wolverines have four tough road games against Michigan State, Northwestern, Notre Dame and Ohio State. I have them as an underdog in each. They will improve upon last year's record, but a Big Ten championship will elude them for the 10th straight season.
 

 

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Football
2014 football season

ClearEyesFullHart

August 20th, 2014 at 6:52 PM ^

1. He has recruited some great tallent and SHOULD win a lot of games this year

And

2. He is on the hotseat and NEEDS to win a lot of games this year.

Hopefully(Probably) we never get to #2.  But the press is acting like we're already there. 

Joined: 09/09/2011

MGoPoints: 2756

I Like Burgers

August 20th, 2014 at 2:28 PM ^

I would venture a guess that Hoke's job status is similar to a good employee that had a major fuckup at work.  Everyone likes the person, they want to see them succeed, but if it happens again, its time to go because you can no longer be seen as that promising good employee but only as the fuckup.

8-5 followed by 7-6 is the equivalent major fuckup for a coach at Michigan.  If they post a similar record, it shouldn't surprise anyone that his job would be in major jeopardy.

Personally, I'd be surprised if he came back after winning 7 or 8 games this season.  I mean, at that point what incentive is there to bring back a coach that wins 7-8 games a year?  By then that's the trend -- and 11-2 is the aberration.

Joined: 10/06/2012

MGoPoints: 30575

RockinLoud

August 20th, 2014 at 2:53 PM ^

Personally, I'd be surprised if he came back after winning 7 or 8 games this season. I mean, at that point what incentive is there to bring back a coach that wins 7-8 games a year?

 

 

 

I think it's a little more complex than that what with the well documented recruiting issues, especially along the O-line. But I would agree that 7 wins this year is danger-zone and 6 or less his job is in serious jeopardy.

Joined: 10/12/2008

MGoPoints: 24455

I Like Burgers

August 20th, 2014 at 3:12 PM ^

I think if they wind up with 7 or 8 wins on the season, its coin flip territory on whether you bring him back or not.  And if its coin flip territory you may as well fire him and jump back on the positivity bandwagon a new coach brings.

I will admit that like you say, its a little more complex, but eventually the results on the field tend to iron out the wrinkles of complexity.  At some point, you are what you no matter what the excuses.

Joined: 10/06/2012

MGoPoints: 30575

wildbackdunesman

August 20th, 2014 at 4:53 PM ^

I'd be shocked if he were fired going 8-4.

In 2013, we had 9 upperclasmen with 4 or 5 stars - most teams in the B1G had more than us.  This year we will have 14, and next year with no attrition we will have 30 - the 2nd most in the BigTen with home games against MSU and OSU.

Transitions can be rough, we are set to peak in 2015, why potentially damage that with a transition?

Joined: 07/16/2008

MGoPoints: 30244

GoBlueDenver

August 20th, 2014 at 5:18 PM ^

8-4 with losses to all of our rivals, though?

And that fourth loss would be to one we shouldn't lose to (look at the schedule).

I agree that keeping Hoke is better for the continuity of the program, but the above scenario is just unacceptable at Michigan. Throw in a couple more tantalizing hypotheticals (a willing and available Harbaugh?) with the above scenario, and Hoke is toast.

Joined: 09/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2726

ClearEyesFullHart

August 20th, 2014 at 7:03 PM ^

""8-5 followed by 7-6 is the equivalent major *redacted* for a coach at Michigan"

This statement is devoid of both context and reason.  I'll agree STARTING NOW with Hoke's first recruits coming to maturity, back to back 8 and 7 win seasons would be very disappointing.  But you can't blame a coach for treading water with guys recruited after 3 and 5 win seasons.  NOW there are no excuses.  The last 3 years, the good parts(okay, his influence on the defense is debatable) and the bad, reflect Rodriguez's recruiting as much as Hoke's.

Joined: 09/09/2011

MGoPoints: 2756

991GT3

August 20th, 2014 at 2:48 PM ^

DB has a huge decision to make since Hoke has one year left on his contract. DB could could fire him (never happen), give him a short contract extension i.e. two years or do nothing. 

A short contract extension will send a message but hopefully will not negatively impact recruiting. If he does nothing, recruiting will suffer.

To give Hoke another five year contract after a 7-6 or 8-5 season with no B1G championship will indicate the program is accepting mediocrity. 

Joined: 12/14/2013

MGoPoints: 1133

MChem83

August 20th, 2014 at 3:32 PM ^

If he doesn't do well enough in 2014, he's gone. That's the definition of hot seat. A 7-5 season could very easily get him fired. Compare that to Dantonio, who is not on the hot seat, and who would be in no danger at all of being fired if Sparty went 7-5. In fact, it's hard to imagine any record this year that would get him fired.

Joined: 04/17/2014

MGoPoints: 414

ClearEyesFullHart

August 20th, 2014 at 7:24 PM ^

Dantonio's first 3 years:  7-5, 9-4, 6-7= 22-16

Hoke's first 3 years: 11-2, 8-5, 7-6=26-13

Context you say?

MSU previous 4 years(before hire): 22-26

UM previous 4 years(before hire): 24-26

You can START judging the man this year.  But building a program takes time.

Joined: 09/09/2011

MGoPoints: 2756

CarolinaWolverine

August 20th, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^

In my little mind, Hoke's seat is warming but still comfortable.  3 bad losses to ND, MSU and OSU though, along with an additional 2+ losses with no improvement in the running game will make his seat as hot as the inside of a volcano.  Those 3 losses to rivals but with improvement and hope for 2015 will make his seat even cooler than now.

Joined: 08/25/2009

MGoPoints: 706

Soulfire21

August 20th, 2014 at 1:37 PM ^

I don't think that the 2012 season was disappointing per se.  We lost to the #1, #2, and #3 teams in the country all away from Ann Arbor and damn near beat a very good SC team.  Additionally we lost Denard for the Nebraska game at the point when we were just getting traction.  

I could be alone in that opinion, though.

Joined: 03/18/2010

MGoPoints: 22716

AlaskanYeti

August 20th, 2014 at 2:13 PM ^

The disappointment was the fact that Bellomy wasn't ready. It was the 6th? game of the season and his RS SO year. It's totally unacceptable for a 2nd string QB in the Big Ten (at Michigan no less) at that point in his career to be that unprepared (shakes fist at sky damning Borges). Nothing against him though. Probably a great kid and 10x the QB I could ever be, but he'll be a body on the depth chart until he graduates. Wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't get a 5th year either.

Joined: 11/27/2012

MGoPoints: 7022

AlaskanYeti

August 20th, 2014 at 3:02 PM ^

Career Statistics:

Passing

G

Att

Comp

Pct

Yds

Long

Pass Effic.

TD

Int

Yds/G

          TOTAL

5

  21

      4

   0.190

  46

    15

          -0.6

   0

  4

    9.2

Maybe I should have said 5x?

Joined: 11/27/2012

MGoPoints: 7022

blacknblue

August 20th, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^

I've always wondered if Denard was hurt in the second half of the Nebrask game instead of the first and Michigan held on to win how people would view this team.  Sure last year would still have sucked but it would have been after a year when Michigan played in the Big Ten Championship game.

Joined: 06/18/2009

MGoPoints: 688

blacknblue

August 20th, 2014 at 3:00 PM ^

Michigan was moving the ball and would very likely have gone with a touchdown when Denard got hurt.  It's not hard to beleive if he played through the second and into the late 3rd or 4th quarter when the injury occured that Michigan would have been ahead.

When Bellomy came in Nebraska did nothing but blitz him the entire game, and the Defense held up pretty well considering I think Michigan had less than 50 yards of total offense the rest of the game.

Joined: 06/18/2009

MGoPoints: 688

Victor Hale II

August 20th, 2014 at 5:29 PM ^

That kind of rational thinking and level headed perspective is pretty refreshing. However, the W-L record becomes the bottom line at some point. Hoke is at that point soon, if not now. Fortunately the Defense should be deep and experienced enough to carry the Offense while it finds its way (looking at OL specifically). This ostensibly weak schedule came at a perfect time.

Joined: 12/28/2011

MGoPoints: 8846

umjgheitma

August 20th, 2014 at 1:37 PM ^

term be cold seat? I mean if people turn away it's described as giving the "cold shoulder," shouldn't the fan base turning on you be putting you on the cold seat?

(ugh, slow day lol) 

Joined: 12/02/2008

MGoPoints: 2388

I Like Burgers

August 20th, 2014 at 2:31 PM ^

The term is hot seat because if you sit on a hot seat you want to get the fuck off of it ASAP.  So if a coach is on the hot seat, its GTFO time for him.

And hell, in the south where its hot and humid, being on the cold seat might be kinda nice.

Joined: 10/06/2012

MGoPoints: 30575

denardogasm

August 20th, 2014 at 1:40 PM ^

It's only a matter of time before Shilique Calhoun quits football to go be on broadway. No one is allowed to have their best player this year except us.

Joined: 09/11/2011

MGoPoints: 10688