Penn State at Minnesota: Information and Discussion
In the spirit of the bye week, like many of you, I am taking the opportunity to watch our next opponent play. Admittedly, I haven't seen Penn State play all year and though I believe they will beat Minnesota, it will be interesting to see how they fare against one of the Big Ten bottom-feeders. PSU has struggled to find an identity offensively and has been decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. On the other hand, Minnesota has just lost their head coach but played USC pretty tough. So, because PSU is our next opponent, I'll take the opportunity to compile some information some of you may find useful for their upcoming game. Additionally, consider this a thread to discuss the potential outcome of the PSU at Minn game and how that may or may not shed light on the matchup in Happy Valley on October 30th.
So without further adieu,
Injury Report:
| Player | Injury | Status/Updated | Notes | |
| Andrew Dailey | S | Undisclosed | Prob Sat - 10/20/10 | Dailey is dealing with an undisclosed injury but is expected to play Saturday against Minnesota. |
| Bani Gbadyu | LB | Leg | Prob Sat - 10/20/10 | Gbadyu missed last game with a leg injury but expects to play Saturday against Minnesota. |
| Michael Mauti | LB | Ankle | Prob Sat - 10/20/10 | Mauti missed last game against Illinois due to an ankle injury but expects to play Saturday against Minnesota. |
| Curtis Drake | WR | Leg | Prob Sat - 10/20/10 | Drake continues to recover from a broken leg and is expected to return Saturday against Minnesota. |
| Sean Stanley | DE | Academics | Ques Sat - 10/17/10 | Stanley missed last game against Illinois as he continues to deal with academic issues he remains questionable for Saturday's game against Minnesota. |
| Gerald Hodges | LB | Leg | Ques Sat - 10/18/10 | Hodges continues to recover from a left leg injury and is questionable to play Saturday against Minnesota. |
| Andrew Szczerba | TE | Back | Ques Sat - 10/18/10 | Szczerba is recovering from a chronic back injury and remains questionable for Saturday's game against Minnesota. |
| Eric Latimore | DE | Wrist | Doub Sat - 10/18/10 | Latimore is expected to miss Saturday's game against Minnesota because of an injured wrist. |
| Jack Crawford | DE | Foot | Doub Sat - 10/20/10 | Crawford missed last game against Illinois with an ankle injury and is doubtful to play Saturday against Minnesota. |
| Derrick Thomas | CB | Academics | Doub Sat - 10/20/10 | Thomas missed last game against Illinois due to academic issues and is expected to miss Saturday's game against Minnesota. |
| Garry Gilliam | TE | Knee | out for season - 10/6/10 | Gilliam will miss the remainder of the season because of a torn ACL. |
| Lou Eliades | G | Knee | out for season - 10/6/10 | Eliades will miss the remainder of the season after tearing his ACL. |
PSU Statistical breakdown to date (10/20):
| OFFENSE | Record | Rank |
| Total Yards | 335.2 | 85 |
| Passing Yards | 209.2 | 70 |
| Rushing Yards | 126 | 85 |
| Points Scored | 18.2 | 108 |
| Field Goal % | 86.7 | 22 |
| DEFENSE | Record | Rank |
| Total Yards | 314.8 | 26 |
| Passing Yards | 169.3 | 18 |
| Rushing Yards | 145.5 | 58 |
| Points Allowed | 18 | 21 |
| Field Goal % | 75 | 72 |
Statistical Matchup:
| Offense | Avg | Yards | Pass | Rush | Y/R | Y/A |
|
PENST MINN |
18.2 24.9 |
335.2 380.1 |
209.2 238.6 |
126.0 141.6 |
3.9 3.7 |
6.7 7.7 |
| Defense | Avg | Yards | Pass | Rush | Y/R | Y/A |
|
PENST MINN |
18.0 31.7 |
314.8 414.3 |
169.3 213.1 |
145.5 201.1 |
4.1 5.6 |
7.0 9.1 |
I think Minnesota's defense could hurt them despite PSU's apparently anemic offense. I think PSU will win in a close game, 24-21.
October 20th, 2010 at 10:32 PM ^
Minnesota is bad. It's the Michigan secondary of Big 10 teams.
I'm interested in Penn State's health. A lot of defensive starters missed significant time during their awful loss to Illinois, and their health will make a big difference in their ability to move forward successfully this season. Also, let's hope for no progress from Bolden.
October 20th, 2010 at 10:36 PM ^
Minnesota is really, really bad. Even with the injuries, PSU should roll.
October 21st, 2010 at 12:20 AM ^
Even with all the injuries PSU will get by.
Unfortunately, I've heard that a lot of the injured guys will be back for the Michigan game (WTKA).
October 20th, 2010 at 10:37 PM ^
I'll be at the game. My season tix are two rows behind Penn State's bench. I'll report on JoePa's ability to navigate the sidelines.
October 20th, 2010 at 10:45 PM ^
Penn State
Value (Nat'l Rank)
Value (Nat'l Rank)
Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 126.0 (85) 201.1 (102) Rushing Defense (ypg) Push Passing Offense (ypg) 209.2 (70) 213.1 (64) Passing Defense (ypg) Push Pass Efficiency 110.0 (104) 162.1 (118) Pass Efficiency Defense Push Total Offense (ypg) 335.2 (85) 414.3 (97) Total Defense (ypg) Push Scoring Offense (ppg) 18.2 (102) 31.7 (98) Scoring Defense (ppg) Push Rushing Defense (ypg) 145.5 (58) 141.6 (76) Rushing Offense (ypg) Push Passing Defense (ypg) 169.3 (18) 238.6 (60) Passing Offense (ypg) Pass Efficiency Defense 132.5 (77) 138.6 (36) Pass Efficiency Total Defense (ypg) 314.8 (26) 380.1 (60) Total Offense (ypg) Scoring Defense (ppg) 18.0 (21) 24.9 (76) Scoring Offense (ppg) Net Punting Yds 39.2 (22) 7.2 (71) Punt Return Yds Punt Return Yds 7.1 (T-74) 32.6 (108) Net Punting Yds Kickoff Return Yds 26.8 (9) 21.9 (73) Kickoff Return Defense Kickoff Return Defense 18.4 (10) 21.3 (68) Kickoff Return Yds Turnover Margin -0.2 (71) 0.43 (41) Turnover Margin Penalty Yds/Game 21.8 (1) 45.4 (30) Penalty Yds/Game Sacks 1.33 (91) 1.14 (25) Sacks Allowed Sacks Allowed 0.83 (14) 0.43 (120) Sacks Redzone Offense (%) 0.70 (T-109) 0.88 (T-93) Redzone Defense (%) Push Redzone Defense (%) 1.0 (T-120) 0.89 (T-18) Redzone Offense (%) Redzone TD % 0.30 0.73 Redzone TD % Defense Redzone TD % Defense 0.69 0.58 Redzone TD % Push 3rd Down Conv. % 38.8 (71) 50.0 (T-114) 3rd Down Defense % 3rd Down Defense % 24.3 (3) 41.6 (48) 3rd Down Conv. % 1st Downs Per Game 17.0 (T-97) 19.4 (T-66) 1st Downs Allowed PG 1st Downs Allowed PG 15.5 (T-12) 20.9 (45) 1st Downs Per Game
Legend
Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Differences >100 in National Rank =
BSD does a very good job comparing stats... They're obviously pretty confident about this game. Most have realistic expectations for the rest of the season, but one is totally delusional.
October 20th, 2010 at 10:46 PM ^
Wow, I had no idea PSU's redzone defense was so poor. I wonder what the sample size is.
October 20th, 2010 at 11:00 PM ^
It's a calculation done by Mike at BSD based on scores/trips:
Everyone that gets in the redzone on PSU has either come away with a TD or FG. But so far PSU has been pretty good about keeping people out of the redzone.
October 21st, 2010 at 11:30 AM ^
Yeah, I know the redzone % is calculated by scores/trips, but I'm wanting to know how many times the opponents have actually been in the red zone. PSU is last in the nation, but in theory could have a killer defense and opposing teams have only had one trip into the redzone and came away with a FG, making the defense have a 100% failure rate. We obviously know this is not the case, but I would be interested to know how many of opposing teams scores came from within the redzone and out of the redzone. Then again, this knowledge doesn't appear to be useful, but helps take the edge off of my addiction to everything that is CFB.
October 21st, 2010 at 12:49 PM ^
Looked at the box scores: 13 Trips into the RZ through 6 games. Kent State never made it there, and Youngstown State only once. There were 4 other offensive scores outside the RZ, I think.
More from BSD poster Cairo:
PSU averages 3.30 points per red zone attempt, good for 119th place in the NCAA.
PSU allows 5.69 points per red zone defensive attempt, good for 112th place.
October 20th, 2010 at 10:42 PM ^
Why does Minny have to be off the schedule...at least there's Purdue
October 21st, 2010 at 12:26 AM ^
Angry Michigan Schedule Hating God?
October 20th, 2010 at 10:45 PM ^
First time seeing Penn State's statistics all together. Boy, that looks none good. I'm going with Minny as my upset of the weak. I mean week.
October 20th, 2010 at 11:29 PM ^
So, a terrible offense and a subpar rush defense. I like it
October 21st, 2010 at 1:08 AM ^
Is this Charlie Villanueva...
...or Jack Crawford?
October 21st, 2010 at 1:40 AM ^
You don't just walk into TCF Bank Stadium and take out the lolphers.
October 21st, 2010 at 2:12 AM ^
South Dakota, USC, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Cal, Wisconsin, and Illinois beg to differ. Not to mention that attendance is going to be abysmal since Obama's speaking on campus during the game.
October 21st, 2010 at 1:59 AM ^
On bodog Penn State is only favored by 9 points!!! Besides the obvious injury reports, could someone please give me a good reason not to throw a thousand dollars on penn state???? please!
October 21st, 2010 at 5:54 AM ^
Well, their offense is our defense.
October 21st, 2010 at 7:13 AM ^
Because Minnesota actually has good players. Brewster was an excellent recruiter; he was just terrible at coaching, at decision-making based on the Xs and Os.
Now Minnesota will be starting a new coach. While that often means upheaval, it also sometimes means the beginnings of improvement. Minnesota couldn't be any worse. With someone new doing the play-calling at home, anything could happen.
Also, Penn State really has no offense. And rumors have it that their coaching staff may be in even more upheaval than Minnesota's, bickering and jockeying for position when Joe's not around.
I'm not saying the Gophers will win. But they could... if I were a betting man, I might take them as an upset. And that's all you were looking for.
October 21st, 2010 at 9:11 AM ^
You think Brewster did the play-calling before? Please. He knew nothing about schematics and coordination.
The same guy who called the plays the first 7 weeks will be calling them on Saturday - Horton.
October 21st, 2010 at 12:08 PM ^
Also, you sometimes see teams rally behind their fired coach and play inspired ball. This is potentially dangerous game for PSU.
October 21st, 2010 at 10:38 AM ^
I am working on a preview post of the Big 10 games for the JCB right now.
Should be up later today.
Sneak peak on the Minny/Penn State writeup is the fact that the Gophers have been so bad this season that the summer line of this game was -10 PSU, while now its -9.5 PSU. Basically the same. Every other PSU line from the summer has seen a significant shift in odds against the Nits. But not this one. Oddsmakers finally took a second look at this game and said, 'yep just what we thought in the summer.' This despite all the issues the OP and everyone in this thread have talked about.
That's how bad the Gophers have been. But, they've been a feisty underdog in recent years, so maybe they keep it close.
October 21st, 2010 at 11:32 AM ^
Awesome, I'm looking forward to reading. I love writing but don't seem to have enough time or unique ideas. So I guess the next best thing is reading, right?