Pass Rusher Projections

Submitted by mcfors on April 19th, 2010 at 12:33 PM

Check out this new post on written my brother. He created a formula he calls SackSEER that he uses to projects edge rushers to the NFL. He uses vertical leap, short shuttle, sack rate and missed games to project NFL sacks. It will also be in the upcoming Football Outsiders book, but they have a preview on the site.

Here's the portion people will most care about, BG's draft stock. His vertical leap really brought down his projection:

Brandon Graham, University of Michigan
Vertical: 31.5", Short Shuttle: 4.25, SRAM: 0.62, Missed Games: 4
Projection: 22.1 Sacks through Year 5
The comparison between Brandon Graham and fellow Michigan alum LaMarr Woodley has been beaten to death by pundits. SackSEER, however, distinguishes Woodley and Graham both by virtue of their prospects for success and by their athleticism. Woodley was an extremely explosive but somewhat "stiff" prospect, recording an excellent 38.5-inch vertical leap and a below-average short shuttle at 4.42 seconds, which added up to a solid 28.2 sack SackSEER projection. Graham, on the other hand, demonstrates good quickness with his 4.25-second short shuttle time, but his 31.5-inch vertical leap raises a major red flag. A more apt comparison for Graham would be Tamba Hali, who shared both Graham’s hustle and lack of jumping ability coming out of college.



April 19th, 2010 at 1:42 PM ^

The vertical leap's importance is based on simple physics. If a 270-pound defensive end has the leg strength to jump 40 inches in the air from a standing position, it is very likely that he will be able to employ that same functional strength to burst quickly and powerfully off the line of scrimmage.


April 19th, 2010 at 9:32 PM ^

Just because a player doesn't need to jump straight into the air doesn't mean that a vertical leap is a bad measurement to look at.

They look at a player's bench press, but I never see a football player laying on his back pushing his opponent vertically.

They look at the shuttle time, but never will a player have to run in one direction, then run in the opposite direction, then run in the opposite direction again, unblocked.

These are all measures we use to test, speed, strenght, explosiveness, etc. If you can explode upwards, you can usually explode forward from a 3-point stance as well.

Double Nickel BG

April 19th, 2010 at 3:43 PM ^

BG is a hell of a football player. Whatever team takes him will be getting a immensely talented, hard working, passionate teammate that strives to for the best for himself and the team. He'll make whatever team that picks him very happy.


April 19th, 2010 at 9:13 PM ^

I can understand the advantages of being able to leap, but I don't see the relevance of the video to Graham here. #34 making the insane leap against ND was clearly a DB, who I would guess doesn't weigh 270.

It's an interesting formula, though I think it's completely wrong about Graham.