Over it and moving on: Big Ten Divisional Tiebreakers

Submitted by westwardwolverine on

Its over. We lost on a 1/500 fluke according to ESPN (and really given the disparity between our special teams and their special teams, it was probably more like 1/1000). Doesn't change the trajectory of this team in any way in my mind other than a playoff shot is probably out the door. Oh and now we have to read stupid infographics after Harbaugh retires 14-1 against Sparty about how the new coach will be the first in seven to beat MSU in his first attempt. Sucks, but what can you do?

So moving on: We should win every game going into Ohio State and quite frankly, I think we beat them. Assuming the Buckeyes beat MSU the week before that (and I cannot fathom a world where they don't) and we beat OSU the next week, the three teams should all be 7-1 to end the year. Who wins the division? Are we out because we have a worse overall record? Is it the highest ranked team in some poll? Do we need to hope for Sparty to blow a game (unfortunately it looks like @Nebraska and home to PSU are the only other chances for a loss on their schedule) so that our head to head win vs. OSU gets us in? 

I know I could google this, but I wanted to get the conversation turned towards the future. 

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Leonhall

October 18th, 2015 at 8:52 AM ^

I agree. I think we try and win 9-10 games, that would be huge in year one! In order for us to beat OSU, we will need turnovers and Rudock to play out of his mind. Still can't believe he can't hit a deep ball.



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UMForLife

October 18th, 2015 at 10:19 AM ^

I am seriously asking how. If I read below where the rule is posted, it will be based on head-to-head matchup first. In that case, M would win because they have beaten OSU and they have only one loss in B1G. OSU would have one loss if we beat them and they beat MSU.

If OSU beats MSU and loses no other B1G game, then they are in.

If OSU beats MSU and loses to M and MSU loses only to OSU, then OSU is in, because OSU would have a better first college football playoff pole ranking.

If OSU beats MSU and loses to M and MSU loses more than one B1G game, then M gets the nod.

Did I not get this right?

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Muttley

October 18th, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^

would be 1-1 in games against each other.

So the tie-breaking process falls to overall record, which would knock us out in that scenario.

After we're knocked out, the tie-breaking process would start from scratch for OSU & MSU, and since OSU would have beaten MSU in this scenario, OSU would be declared the representative from the Eastern Division.

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Muttley

October 18th, 2015 at 12:29 PM ^

The Scenario is OSU beats MSU, and Mich beats OSU.  All three teams win all of their other games.

 

 

From http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/archive/081011aaa.html

(b) If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.

1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other

 

step  0.     We start with
                         the scenario definition that
                         Michigan, MSU, and OSU all
                         end up tied in conference
                         at 7-1
step  b.1  UM is eliminated by tiebreaker b.1
                         (10-2 versus 11-1)
next step. After Mich is eliminated,
                         there are only two teams,
                         so OSU gets the nod due
                         to its scenario victory
                         over MSU

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Drbogue

October 18th, 2015 at 8:58 AM ^

The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:
(a) If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
(b) If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, and 6).
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
5. The highest ranked team in the first College Football Playoff poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the College Football Playoff poll. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game.
6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
7. The representative will be chosen by random draw.



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Red is Blue

October 18th, 2015 at 9:12 AM ^

I don't get number 4. Since you play everyone in your own division, doesn't this essentially come down to record v. Common opponents in the other division? What are the odds that three or more teams tie and have a common game in the other division. Further, in the unlikely event they do have a common cross-division game what are the odds of having a different record in that game?

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michiganman001

October 18th, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^

Going Step By Step (if UM wins out, OSU beats MSU)

1. Everybodies 1-1

2. Everybody is 5-1

3. Everybody is 3-0

4. Everybody is undefeated

5. This is where it gets decided, and while our team's schedule is tougher than the other two, It would be a tough stretch to put a 2 loss team over 2 1 loss teams. 

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alum96

October 18th, 2015 at 9:02 AM ^

Its about matchups.

PSU D is going to be as tough if not tougher on UM then MSU as they match up excellent with our issues.  They have excellent rush D and multiple players along the likes of McDowell and Cahoun on the DL that will expose our OL deficiencies the same way.    (Nassib, Zettel) They are among national leaders in sacks and TFL.  Unlike MSU they wont be starting 2 freshman safeties.  They are among national leaders in INTs.   MSU negated our TEs almost completely and Jake is Jake.  So if you can't run on a D and you they INT at a rate like Utah how are we going to score? 

PSU's special teams arent the complet joke MSU's are so getting +25 yds on every special teams exchange - which helped us all night - wont happen.

PSU's O is not as good as MSU's but this is shaping up to be a M00P game - its on the road @ night and people overlooking this are the same as saying MSU sucks because of at rutgers and purdue...so this one will be easy.

 

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Perkis-Size Me

October 18th, 2015 at 9:17 AM ^

I'm not sure I'd classify @PSU as a definite win. That game is away, at night, on their Senior Day. Hard enough to win in Happy Valley as it is. Their defense is probably as good as MSU's, if not better. Their defense will expose our deficiencies on offense much in the same way that MSU did. Yes, their offense is a mess, but it's improving, and they're still at home. And somewhere buried in Hackenberg's fractured psyche, there's still a good QB somewhere in there just waiting to finally have a great game.

I can very easily see Michigan losing that game. I'd only peg Rutgers, Indiana, and Minnesota as likely wins at this point. That's still 8 wins, a huge improvement from last year and about where many of us expected to land this year. I do believe we'll give OSU a tough one as always, but will we win? Methinks no.



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allintime23

October 18th, 2015 at 9:55 AM ^

The best thing we can do is beat OSU after they beat state and hope that Nebraska somehow upsets them. It could happen. I'm sure with the unreal luck they always have it will be hard. Never the less, win ten games and see what happens.

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Bob_Timberlake

October 18th, 2015 at 10:05 AM ^

Look at the tiebreakers supplied by Drbogue, which matches the information supplied by an earlier poster with a link to the Big Ten site.

Michigan does not need MSU to lose two games to go to the B10 championship game. Assuming Michigan, MSU and OSU and end up at 7-1 in the conference (and we beat OSU and OSU beats MSU), you go to the tiebreakers:

1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other. (They would all be 1-1 against the other two teams)


2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, and 6).
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
5. The highest ranked team in the first College Football Playoff poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the College Football Playoff poll. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Therefore, MSU does NOT need to lose two games for Michigan to get the championship game berth. Tie breakers #2 thru #4 may end up determining who goes and has nothing to do with overall record (including non-conference games). It seems unlikely that the tiebreaker would go beyond #5 to determine who goes (highest ranked team in the Playoff Poll). This is probably where Michigan gets eliminated, because it's unlikely that a 10-2 Michigan team would be higher in the poll than an 11-1 OSU or 11-1 MSU. 

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carolina blue

October 18th, 2015 at 10:22 AM ^

Ok so the way I understand it now, there Is the outside possibility that this could be decided by coin flip. If OSU beats MSU and we win out, the following is possible.
1) after losing,MSU drops to, say 8th.
2) after beating OSU, Mich moves up to, say, 9th. But OSU drops to 7th.
Wouldn't that result in a coin flip?



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