OTish: Malzahn effect on winning %

Submitted by Oscar Goldman on November 25th, 2013 at 9:38 PM

Saw this graphic on Twitter:

 

Just found this interesting in light of M's situation. 

EDIT - I know he isn't coming here, I know he is the HC, etc.  just found it interesting to see the difference a great coordinator can make in terms of actual winning %.

Comments

TheJoker

November 25th, 2013 at 10:24 PM ^

Yeah I know that, I'm saying that there are some OCs that are meant to be OCs. They don't have the talent to become HC. My argument was that Malzahn was a HC level coach as an OC. Not all OCs will have such advantages on their programs. 

 

maizenblue92

November 25th, 2013 at 9:50 PM ^

That these graphs imply that the offensive coordinator and subsequent scheme can have a major affect on a football team. And if you happen to have a good (elite) one you will win more games. 

Now is time for the sarcasm. What a major breakthrough in the annals of college football. Great coordinators help you win more games. Thanks for finally pointing that out, because I am pretty sure no one has ever thought that before. 

The problem is this is useless to our situation because we are not firing Borges, definitely not getting Malzahn level coordinator, and finally not ever going to run a spread under Hoke (I still support Hoke though).

/end rant

DeBored

November 25th, 2013 at 10:30 PM ^

1)  Malzahn is the head coach at Auburn.  It is debatable whether or not the Michigan HC position is a better job.

2)  Malzahn is vastly underpaid at 2.44 million.  He stands to double this salary at minimum if he heads elsewhere.

3)  However, If he starts getting wined and dined by other schools, Auburn would likely pony up to keep him.

4)  He's a southern guy, so Texas seems more likely.  We would likely be bidding against Texas and Auburn.  My guess is we'd have to come way over the top of Texas to be competitive. I could see Auburn at least coming up to 4.  Texas easily in the mid 5s to 6, so we'd need 6.5 to 7 to be in the discussion.

5)  If we were somehow to land him (at this point it seems farfetched to even have a HC VACANCY at this point) and retain Mattison as coordinator, I would be like an 11 year old girl when One Direction takes the stage...

CoachParker6

November 26th, 2013 at 12:40 AM ^

Both spread guys but both use it different.

Gus uses a hell of a lot more jet motion then RR, and off that action come a lot of his plays from the quick tap shovel to the jet sweep to triple option with the read and jet guy along with so much more.

RR is more straight spread you out and exploit you by getting my guys in space and by reading / optioning your defensive end / tackle / LB.

Both passing games are somewhat similar in that their initial attempts are usually a counter to a defensive adjustment aimed at stopping the run. I know everyone here remembers the fake denard power seam pass...

I live studying both these guys :)

Michigan4Life

November 26th, 2013 at 9:41 AM ^

Both are different with similar principles and both are effective in getting players in space. Malzahn used more of a uptempo than Rich Rod, but both likes to use no huddle to keep the defensive personnel on the field without subsituting. There is a reason why both are successful everywhere they have gone, and both adjust to their personnel (contrary to Michigan's fan with his 1st year, Michigan actually passed the ball more than they ran the ball under Threet/Sherdian).

Cromulent

November 26th, 2013 at 3:20 PM ^

No, back in Springdale Gus was throwing 80% of the time the last couple of years. And his first year as a true OC at Tulsa he threw the ball plenty. It wasn't just about attacking defensive adjustments against the run.

 

In years 2 at Tulsa he had a new QB who wasn't quite as good a passer. And Herb Hand had been in his ear for a year about amping up the spread run game. That's the season when you really saw what Gus' offense looks like now. But with the right QB Gus has no problems going back to the Mustain/Springdale days.

 

joeyb

November 26th, 2013 at 1:11 PM ^

I'm not going to chart it, but I did crunch some numbers. It's hard to make direct comparisons because the only two place where an incumbent head coach hired him and then stuck around after he left were UCLA* and Auburn. His other FBS stops were Oregon, Cal, and Indiana - he stayed with these programs for 1-2 years either at the beginning or end of the HC's tenure - and SDSU and Michigan under Hoke.

At Oregon, he went 9-3 for 75%. Oregon then went 6-5, 7-5, 8-4, 9-3, 10-2 after that for a 68% win percentage.

At UCLA, the previous offensive coordinator was hired as head coach and then hired Borges. Before he got there, they were at 52%. While he was there, they went 5-6, 10-2, 10-2, 4-7, 6-6 so either pretty good or pretty bad. He left with a 60% win percentage. The following two years, they won 63% of their games.

At Cal, he was hired in for the coaches last season. Before he got there, they were 34%. They went 1-10 in his only season there to give him a 9% win percentage. Jeff Tedford was hired the next year and they went 7-5, FWIW.

At Indiana, he was there for Gerry DiNardo's first two of three seasons. They had a win percentage of 21% while he was there and 27% in DiNardo's last season.

Auburn is the only truly comparable situation. In Tuberville's 5 seasons preceding Borges, they won 61% of their games. Their best record was 9-4 in seasons 2 and 4. After Borges got there, they won 82% of their games and 9-4 was their worst season (his last). The following year, Tuberville hired James Franklin and some-what famously fired him midway through the season. They went 5-7 that year for 42%.

At SDSU, Hoke and Borges made improvements on record both years.

We all know the story at Michigan.

I can't even really group these into categories to analyze, though. There seem to be just as many success stories as failures. However, the only two places where he has left at peak or near peak in terms of record were Oregon and SDSU. Cal and Indiana were always bad. UCLA and Auburn he won games early on and then returned to normal form the next 2-3 years. That, to me, seems like the best comparison to what has happened at Michigan. He over-achieved in year 1 and has come back to earth these past two seasons.

CoachParker6

November 25th, 2013 at 10:50 PM ^

Coaching has a bigger effect on winning then people may think. Some coaches will say it's not about the X's and O's it's about the Jimmy's and Joe's, but I don't believe that's entirely true. Look at the saints last year vs Saints this year. Their coach made a huge difference. Same can be said about Stanford and the 49ers before Harbaugh. The truth is that a combination of coaching and good players needs to exist for any level of success to be obtained.

I believe Hoke has and is recruiting the athletes to be successful. I do however think a change is needed within the X's and O's if this staff wants this team to become elite.

Finance-PhD

November 25th, 2013 at 11:04 PM ^

Malzahn is good with someone else's players. He was at those jobs for 1 year, 2 years, 2 years. Let him have a job for 4-5 years and then discuss how good he is as a coach.

CoachParker6

November 26th, 2013 at 12:33 AM ^

It's not as if he left bc he thought he couldn't win with his own guys. He left bc he got offered a head gig and took it.

I personally viewed how bad Auburn was last year. To see what Gus has done in this short of a time, in the toughest division in college football, says all it needs to in terms of what caliber coach he is.

I understand your point, but if you can turn someone else's tire fire into championship material then I have no doubt he can do it with his own guys.

His problem is that he has been so good that he is such a hot commodity. Wouldn't be surprised to see his name come up at some of this seasons openings. Can't fault a guy for leaving an OC job for Ark. State head job then gets offered head auburn job in the best conference in the country.

I guess time will tell for you but for me the guy is an offensive efficiency mastermind.

milhouse

November 26th, 2013 at 12:57 AM ^

While I agree that Malzahn is an elite coach.  It's a bit disingenuous to say that he turned Aubrun around with someone else's guys.  After all, he was the OC from 09-11. One would have to assume that he had quite an influence on at least the offensive players that Auburn went after at that time.  He only left for one season.

 

Finance-PhD

November 26th, 2013 at 8:04 AM ^

I would agree if the team was not a bunch of sophomores that he didn't have contact with plus a couple of juniors with almost no time under him as freshmen.

I agree that he can run an offense but the college game requires more than that as you must be able to recruit and develop to keep success rolling.

milhouse

November 26th, 2013 at 1:06 AM ^

This is equvalent to saying that if you give Borges more talented players, he can beat you. No shit.  If you give any mediocre coach more talented players, they'll win.  I don't care what he does with NFL talent, I care how he responds to the players he ACTUALLY has.  He's no good.  He hasn't adapted well to his talent.  The argument that they want to install 'their' offense is invalid.  You can run several different offensive styles no matter your talent level, you just don't d things (like power) that you're not able to be successful with.

jdon

November 26th, 2013 at 12:54 PM ^

you can hate it all you want.

Al Borges, with the players he wants and likes will perform.

Al Borges, with anything else will fail miserably.

The bad news is we have to deal with this year.

The good news is after Gardner leaves we will have the type of quarterbacks, receivers, and running backs that Borges wants.  We will also have an amazing pool from which to draw five starting offensive lineman.

 

IF  I ruled the world I would fire his ass yesterday, but since I don't I have to accept the fact that Hoke understands the above and will look to the future...

jdon

 

MichiganMan14

November 26th, 2013 at 12:33 AM ^

Baffling why this hasnt already been done. Pay the man and lets start freaking winning some football games. Not sure what in the hell we are doing but Im sick of being average or worse. Michigan deserves better than this.

CoachParker6

November 26th, 2013 at 12:44 AM ^

Honestly Les is getting up there in age and his in game management isn't much better then our current coach if at all.

Before we Fire Brady and run him out of town lets see what his response is to one of the worst offensive seasons in our history. Everyone assumes he will do nothing, but I believe that UM is too much of his dream job for him to let Borges or whoever fuck it up.

If Brady doesn't make any changes then his future will hinge in next years results.