OT Young not on Tigers ALCS roster

Submitted by sec20 on October 8th, 2011 at 1:31 PM

This hurts. 

 

No Link just saw on ESPN bottom line

Comments

mackbru

October 8th, 2011 at 1:48 PM ^

That's a big blow. Terrible luck. Hopefully he'll recover enough to play in the World Series -- if they get that far. Minus Young, their chances just decreased.

panthera leo fututio

October 8th, 2011 at 2:41 PM ^

I'm a big proponent of using careful empirical work to overturn conventional wisdom. But I'd need to see some pretty, pretty careful studies to convince me that players don't go through stretches where they play better or worse than some baseline performance. Is there really any empirical work that would allow you to claim that Young's Sept/Oct performance is no more relevant than his April/May performance in predicting how he'd perform in the ALCS?

AAB

October 8th, 2011 at 3:00 PM ^

most of his numbers haven't changed.  He's still striking out and walking at the same rate as he did before, and he's reaching base at the same rate as well.  The only difference is his power.  He's seen a huge spike in his isolated power, which is like 1.5 times his career rate over the last month.  It's possible he's changed something as a hitter, but none of this other peripheral stats have changed, so it's more likely he's just running pretty hot on home runs at the moment.   When you're dealing with a 3000 AB career, I don't see a good reason to trust the last month over all of his prior history.  

panthera leo fututio

October 8th, 2011 at 3:11 PM ^

I haven't followed Young's stats that closely, so I'll concede that there might be ways to analyze his last month's stats to show that his performance isn't changed much.  But, in a discussion of advanced statistics, your last point is not at all the sort of empirical response I was hoping for.

While we're dealing in the realm of common sense, it's very easy for me to imagine why a hitter's performance might fluctuate over various time frames: injuries, mechanical glitches, the waxing and waning of confidence, etc.  I can clearly recall going through stretches in high school where, e.g., I did nothing but fist groundballs to the shortstop for a few weeks before realizing that I needed to stop letting my back elbow fly out.

Mitch Cumstein

October 8th, 2011 at 3:50 PM ^

I admittedly don't know much about advanced stats, but does him changing teams factor into this at all?  You mention its possible he's changed something.  The change in power does coincide with getting a new hitting coach and manager and new lineup.  Is that enough to change the trends you're talking about?

Blue boy johnson

October 8th, 2011 at 2:36 PM ^

I don't think so. After Cabrera and Martinez there is no Tiger I would rather see at the plate. Leyland has batted Young third for a reason, he is a talented hitter and capable of taking advantage of the opportunities batting in front of Cabrera afforded him.

AAB

October 8th, 2011 at 2:47 PM ^

he was the #1 overall pick for a reason.  

He also has a career .288/..321/.428 line, and has only taken 125 walks in almost 2800 at bats.  

Having him healthy is better than not having him healthy.  But I think saying it's a big blow because he had a good ALDS is reading too much into a few games.  

AAB

October 8th, 2011 at 3:04 PM ^

The question is whether the fact that he was bad in the ALDS means anything other than "he was bad in the ALDS."  

Everyone, even great hitters (which A-Rod has been but probably isn't anymore) has bad 5 or 7 game stretches, and drawing lessons or conclusions from a single series is putting way too much faith in small samples. 

Blue boy johnson

October 8th, 2011 at 3:15 PM ^

The question for me is what relavance Arod historical OPS has when he is a shadow of the player who put up those stats

Had the Yankees advanced past the Tigers, I would give more credence to his struggles against the Tigers than a monster post season he had with the Mariners in1997

Blue boy johnson

October 8th, 2011 at 2:08 PM ^

Well that sucks but certainly not insurmountable. Raeburn and Dirks can fill in capably.

On a positive note: An outfield of Young, Jackson and Boesch for 2012 is pretty exciting

BlueCrusade

October 8th, 2011 at 2:53 PM ^

Would love to see that, but I honestly don't think they make a run at either of them.  I'm guessing the one big offseason pick up will be a starting pitcher.  Preferrably a left handed starter that can break up the string of righties.  I'g going to guess they go with Inge again and also wouldn't be surprised to see them bring back Betemit.

I'd also be surprised to see them resign Magglio.  Young in LF, Jackson in CF, Boesch in RF going forward with Dirks being that 4th OF and Kelly and Raburn having the ability to play there in a pinch.