OT - Which P5 Coach Gets Canned First This Season?

Submitted by Perkis-Size Me on

Quite a few coaches are coming into this season on the hot seat and in dire need of big seasons in order to save their jobs. Who all do you think get canned first?

My guess is Sumlin. He pretty much caught lightning in a bottle with Manziel, and his teams have proceeded to fall apart in the second half of just about every season ever since he left. 

I think Kelly is safe for another season minus a drastic implosion both on and off the field, because he's one year into a big extension and ND doesn't want to go the route again of firing a guy and paying him for years NOT to coach them.

Who you all got? 

lhglrkwg

August 4th, 2017 at 12:36 PM ^

The only way he gets fired if it's because of the off the field stuff - like if something really bad came up that was tied to Mork's name. For purely on the field results, his seat went from ice cold to cool. He's got years to go before MSU would fire him for on the field performance

Sione For Prez

August 4th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^

That would be the quickest way to get fired. But there was a lot of grumbling from MSU fans about the coordinators and Mark not being willing to expand his coaching pool.

Administration is probably less fickle than the fans but another meh to bad season coupled with falling season ticket renewals and donations could speed up the process.

ijohnb

August 4th, 2017 at 12:49 PM ^

don't buy that.  If they go 3-9 or 4-8 again this year he will be on the hot seat.  The fact that they used to suck before him does not give him a lifetime pass.  He seemed bulletproof a year ago but nobody imagined that they would have THAT season last year.  I don't think he is on the hot seat now but if they really suck again along with the off the field problems?  Yeah, I think he could get fired.

In reply to by ijohnb

WestQuad

August 4th, 2017 at 1:31 PM ^

Mork is their best coach in decades.  At 61 with heart problems, MSU will want to find a way for him to retire so that they can celebrate him down the road.   They might go 5-7 or 6-6 this year and he won't be fired.  4-8 with a win against ND would get him a pass too.   2018 at 63, they have an easier schedule and have a chance of going 8-4 or even 9-3 with PSU collapses and Maryland doesn't ascend.  Western and Indiana won't be any good by then.  That might be a good year for him to retire.   2019 seems about the same as 18.   2020 isn't set, but they have Miami (YTM) and BYU.

Perkis-Size Me

August 4th, 2017 at 12:34 PM ^

No way in hell he's getting fired unless he ends up having been directly involved in any of the scandals going on at the school, or actively worked to cover any of it up. Basically Dantonio would have to force MSU's hand in firing him. 

MSU is not getting rid of the best coach it's had in 50 years even for two bad seasons. He's shown what he can do, and they'll be willing to wait and see if he can turn it around. MSU would risk destroying everything he built if they go out and get someone else. 

cheesheadwolverine

August 4th, 2017 at 1:57 PM ^

No question Mork has done a great job and they should not fire him no matter what happens this year.  

But, I really don't see him--or anyone--turning that program around.  Their run coincided with two of the top 4 programs in the B1G setting themselves on fire: us with two straight bad hires and Penn State with the pedo stuff.  Now that's over, it's hard to see them doing anything better than scrapping for fourth in the B1G East and a mediocre bowl in the next decade or so.

corundum

August 4th, 2017 at 12:34 PM ^

Sumlin might be a dead man walking through the season due to buyout issues. Tamu should definitely hire Chad Morris before he gets scooped by someone else.

Kliff Kingsbury needs a miracle to save his job and probably should have been canned once Mahommes declared for the draft. He found a way to squander arguably the most talented QB in program history into a career losing record.

lhglrkwg

August 4th, 2017 at 12:39 PM ^

Their offense was very good (though it's hard to sort out how much of it is truly 'great' and how much of it is the Big 12 having awful defenses) but Tech's defense was astoundingly bad. They managed to lose games last year in which they scored 55, 38, 59, 37, and 44 points

An average defense sees Texas Tech winning the Big 12 and going to a NY6 bowl or better, but somehow Kliff's defense is so bad that he managed to make that team 5-7. It's like a train wreck so spectacular that you just can't look away

stephenrjking

August 4th, 2017 at 12:43 PM ^

The worst thing to happen to Sumlin was doing so well when they broke into the SEC that fans expect that every season, and it turns out that the SEC West is actually a really hard division to win in. 

Is there actual talk of TT firing Kingsbury? He's their guy and they aren't going to win national titles. There's no way he gets fired midseason, but doesn't he have leash even past this year?

corundum

August 4th, 2017 at 12:48 PM ^

Kingsbury is clearly in over his head and should have been a career OC. He did not have the requisite experience to be a HC and is failing at a time when the Big 12 is putting just 3 more players into the NFL than the MAC. He found a way to lose to Iowa State 66-10 last year. He's absolutely done with another losing campaign this season.

UMxWolverines

August 4th, 2017 at 12:31 PM ^

I thought it was amusing that Texas A&M decided to expand their stadium by 20,000 and do a 500 million dollar renovation after one good year and they've done nothing since.

lhglrkwg

August 4th, 2017 at 12:33 PM ^

hot seat + school thinking they're much grander than they truly are is a bad combo. I could see them canning him during their bye week in October if they're 4-3 or something like that.

My 2a and 2b options are Brian Kelly and Kliff Kingsbury. Both have been underwhelming, and both schools know they can do better

The Baughz

August 4th, 2017 at 12:34 PM ^

I'm saying Butch Jones or Brian Kelly. Although Sumlin might have the most pressure since his AD publicly stated that he more or less will be fired if they have another mediocre season. There's a real chance multiple big time programs will have head coaching vacancies.

Maison Bleue

August 4th, 2017 at 12:36 PM ^

I am going with Brian Kelly. They have a real tough schedule this year and I just don't see it getting any better. Especially if the lose to another shitty MSU squad.

Perkis-Size Me

August 4th, 2017 at 1:25 PM ^

If they hadn't just signed Kelly to a big extension after the 2015 season, I think he could legitimately be fired this year if the season started going downhill. But I think ND is so afraid of another Charlie Weis situation (paying two separate coaches) that they're willing to give him a little more time if he can muster an 8-4 type season. 

But if the season really starts going downhill, like losing to Temple or Boston College, or getting their doors blown off by UGa at home, then they may just decide to cut ties and dump their entire endowment at Urban Meyer's front door. 

stephenrjking

August 4th, 2017 at 1:30 PM ^

That ND-UGA game is my pre-season candidate for "most likely game to be exciting and dupe people into thinking one or both teams is really good before we realize that they both stink." (Other people have discussed this with more concise names, but I forget what those names are). Previous holders: Texas-Notre Dame 2016, Michigan-Notre Dame 2009, etc. 

Perkis-Size Me

August 4th, 2017 at 3:30 PM ^

I'm willing to give Smart the benefit of the doubt after only one year, even though losing to Vanderbilt and GaTech at home is pretty damn bad. 

They could be good this year, but the honeymoon for Smart is definitely over. If he can get the guys on that team to collectively play up to their talent level, they can absolutely win 10-11 games and win their division. Or, they could be same ol' Georgia, win 8-9 games, and let an offensively-challenged Florida team pass them by yet again. 

In reply to by ijohnb

Red is Blue

August 4th, 2017 at 1:57 PM ^

Doesn't he have an OSU contract out to do just that?

Why, who knows, but he'd be an all-time legendary coach if he could win big at ND after having done so at both FLA and OSU (not to mention Utah).

Heywood_Jablome

August 4th, 2017 at 2:56 PM ^

Urban doesn't have any outs in his OSU contract for another job. At one point in his Florida contract he had an out for OSU and ND, and I think even UM.

If he wanted the ND job, he could have taken it in 2004 when he left Utah.  He's never going to coach ND. Write it down.

In reply to by ijohnb

Perkis-Size Me

August 4th, 2017 at 3:24 PM ^

I never said he'd want the job. I just said that ND would probably at least try. He did say at one time it was his dream school. And they've got the kind of money he'd require. 

What have they got to lose? Worst-case scenario is he says no. Everyone would expect him to so you don't lose much by reaching out and asking. Might as well throw your name in the hat and just see what happens. 

WestQuad

August 4th, 2017 at 1:38 PM ^

ND could loose 8-10 games this season.  

 

Temple   L?  (DId Temple keep their coach?)

Georgia L

BC  L

MSU   L?

Miami (OH) W

NC  L?

USC  L

NC State  L?

Wake Forest W

Miami (YTM) L

Navy L?

Stanford  L

 

I have to admit that it is pretty cool playing both Miamis in the same year.

The Man Down T…

August 4th, 2017 at 3:03 PM ^

But probably closer to 7-5

 

Beat Temple, Miami (NTM), NC State, Wake, Navy for sure.

 

They should beat MSU and BC as well if they play decently.  Split these/

 

Georgia, USC, Miami (YTM) and Stanford are losses.

 

North Carolina is a tossup.  Win this one, 7-5.  Lose it, 6-6

 

Then again, if they lose a couple early, that starts a downward momentum.  :) 

 

Perkis-Size Me

August 4th, 2017 at 5:12 PM ^

I don't know if he'll have enough cache for this (maybe if PSU wins a national title or plays for one), but a lot of people were debating if Moorhead would leave PSU after last season. If the offensive fireworks continue, he'll land a good gig somewhere. 

They may go after Chip Kelly, but I could see them passing if they think he'll be more trouble than he's worth. He'd definitely win a lot of games in South Bend, but ND has far stricter academic requirements than Oregon, so Kelly won't necessarily be able to bring in all the high-flying west coast athletes that he could while he was at Oregon. Kelly also wants complete, total control of his program. I'd bet he and the ND brass would butt heads quite a lot. 

Or they'll pull in some OC from the NFL who they think will give them another decided schematic advantage.....