OT: What is going on with Verlander?

Submitted by sedieso on

I am a casual baseball fan, and do not watch many games until the fall time. I do however like to keep up with the box score and stats of many Tigers players and have noticed that Verlander has been subpar this year. Can anyone shed light on his performance this year? Is it a mechanical issue, arm fatigue, injury?

Not Just A Shooter

June 12th, 2014 at 1:17 AM ^

I, too, have been thinking about the Upton Factor (TM?) and decided to run the numbers

FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching

xFIP = Expected Fielding Independent Pitching

Arrow #1: [Summer, 2012] Rumors of a Upton-Verlander relationship start

Arrow #2: [June, 2013] Upton tweets this "warm" message to Verlander's best friend. Note the subsequent rise in FIP and xFIP (sparing last September):

 

Padog

June 11th, 2014 at 11:13 PM ^

It's weird, I am no baseball expert so I can't say anything about mechanics. However, I am noticing that he is throwing his fastball ALOT which takes away from its dominance. He used to keep people off balance with the occasional curve and change up. Now he just tries to overpower people.

MGoBender

June 11th, 2014 at 11:13 PM ^

If I knew the problem, I'd be off in the Bahamas downing cocktails instead of posting on MGoBlog.

It's gotta be the biggest question in Detroit sports right now.

I Like Burgers

June 11th, 2014 at 11:45 PM ^

Either Grantland or 538 (hell, maybe it was Insider...definitely ESPN though) had a good article on Verlander just being an average starter now and how staff ace's time can be fleeting. I think it's just that. He's fallen off more and more the last few years and just doesn't have it anymore. Happens to the best of them.

LSAClassOf2000

June 12th, 2014 at 6:09 AM ^

Sports Illustrated did a writeup on the subject of Verlander being, well, "off" last week after his rather rough start against Toronto. The last time he has had a stretch where he gave up four or more runs in four out out of five consecutive starts was in the middle of the 2008 season, which was a rather un-Verlander season by his standards. He's also struck out four or fewer batters seven times this year, according to their figuring, something that he did a mere fifteen times in last two complete seasons, so this is a little troubling as well. 

umchicago

June 12th, 2014 at 12:48 AM ^

he obviously still has great stuff, but his command is not what it used to be.  he used to paint the corners with his fastball; especially the early innings using just his cutter.  now, he misses a lot.  he also has lost control of his breaking ball.  he leaves it up in the zone a lot and it gets punished a lot.  and that's when it's in the strike zone.

hopefully, it's just a matter of finding his groove again and maintaining consistency with his pitches.

Gobgoblue

June 11th, 2014 at 11:23 PM ^

He likes to establish a strike zone early, so a lot of teams are starting to get very aggressive at the plate right away when he is pitching. he's throwing a lot of clear fastballs early and as a result you see starts where he's given up four through two

BlueCube

June 11th, 2014 at 11:23 PM ^

I don't think he has recovered completely. That being said there is a couple articles out basically saying he's washed up. This one is on Fox Sports . There are some disturbing trends there but I look at how he finished last year and the surgery as possible reasons. I have to say I'm beginning to wonder though.

WMUgoblue

June 11th, 2014 at 11:26 PM ^

That inning is also on Castellanos, he botched a simple ground ball and that was before JV got the double play ball. He had the required 3 outs but didn't get them. This team is in such an annoying slump right now though, when they pitch they can't hit, when they pitch and hit they can't close. It's really annoying.

maize-blue

June 12th, 2014 at 7:59 AM ^

I'm not sold on Castellanos as of yet. I think he has average defensive skills and an average arm to boot. I still think of him as an outfielder.

Suarez at SS could be ok; he sometimes misses plays that he should seemingly get to. The pop in his bat is a nice addition though.

I think Hunter’s age may be catching up to him. He seems to come up limping every time he touches the ground and I don’t think he can chase down many balls anymore.

All around (except Sanchez) the team just doesn’t look good right now. Either they are in a slump or the start of the season was an anomaly and we are just now seeing what the team may really be. I’m probably a victim of the moment, but I am starting to fear that concerns before the season (losing power and hitters) may be catching up to them.

ThadMattasagoblin

June 11th, 2014 at 11:29 PM ^

It's not just Verlander. All of the starters seem off besides Sanchez. The bullpen is a wreck as well. We should have kept Fister and kept Smyly in the pen because now we have no one.

maize-blue

June 12th, 2014 at 8:08 AM ^

Yup, it always comes back to Fister and that damn trade. They would be in a much better position at the moment. I heard one of the Tiger's newspapers writers talking and wondering is Dave D. would make a move at the trade deadline to grab a starter and move Smyly back to the bullpen.

maize-blue

June 12th, 2014 at 9:02 AM ^

I'm not sure what they would have done for the beginning of the season, fumbled their way through it probably. But Fister has been back for a little while now and pitching good (5-1 w/ 2.68 ERA). I was only looking at the current and future situations, which would have probably looked a little brighter.

LordGrantham

June 11th, 2014 at 11:32 PM ^

The Tigers are in complete free fall right now, and there's really nothing to suggest it will stop soon.

michigan fan 1976

June 11th, 2014 at 11:49 PM ^

verlander got paid plain and simple hasnt been effective since he signed the contract last april, he has been very mediocre since he signed the contract and he i suggest is another one of those players that performs until he gets paid then soaks it up and calls it a day, so i am sorry if this offends anyone or as people have said before attacks justins integrity but the guy in my mind just doesnt seem to care anymore, he is always doing interviews and all kinds of other stuff where he should be watching film and finding out what is going on  but thats just my opinion take it as a grain of salt

michigan fan 1976

June 12th, 2014 at 2:58 AM ^

excuse me for the lack of grammar i dont have a coolege education like most of you all so does that make me less of a human being, i am sorry that i got so much going through my head at one time that i need to typee it or forget where my mind is going, and sorry that so many of you are more intelligent than most and belittle people who dont grasp the grammar topic with you all, i sucked in HS in english never have been good at it but i guess the geniuses you all are expect everyone to be so if you dont like how i right when i reply dont read it, i am sorry i am that much more of a moron than you guys, and it sucks we are all fans of the same team/ teams and all we nitpick about is grammar, thanks have a good night

TIMMMAAY

June 12th, 2014 at 8:51 AM ^

That's impressive right there. 

You don't need a "coolege education" to "right" properly, or at least close to it. I could "right" proper sentences at 12 (being very generous here, it was probably earlier than that). Our language is how we communicate effectively, you should learn to use it. 

Mabel Pines

June 12th, 2014 at 10:43 AM ^

Regarding Verlander, I totally agree that it was the signing of the contract.  He just relaxed and is not as sharp.  However, Max is not as sharp, either, and he is looking for a big fat contract.  So who knows.  Bring back Fister. 

samdrussBLUE

June 12th, 2014 at 10:30 AM ^

You initially created a post with terrible grammer/structure.  You received feedback on this poor grammer.  You then created this post acknowledging that people are more intelligent than yourself.  Even after this acknowledgement, you could not incorporate that feedback into the post by at least replacing the commas with periods.

HonoluluBlue

June 11th, 2014 at 11:44 PM ^

In 2012-13 MLB began in season blood tests for HGH and other PEDs. Previously they only ran blood tests during spring training. Remember how he was a notorious slow starter in past years? Last year it dragged on 3/4 of the season. I know he had a great October but even that was without his high heat.

umchicago

June 12th, 2014 at 1:50 PM ^

i read somewhere that his avg fastball has dropped from 94.4 mph to 94.0 this year.  it could be PEDs.  or could be that he aged from 30 to 31 this year.  he can still run it up there to 97 when he wants.  there is no issue with his stuff.  it's all about location/control.

Rodriguesqe

June 12th, 2014 at 12:09 AM ^

i view the high velocity as a good sign.

i dont buy the 'he signed the contract and stopped caring' argument - he was filthy rich after the previous contract. his life was already gold. plus, dude is competetive.

i buy the kate upton argument somewhat. im not sure i could walk and chew bubble gum after that.

but he sucks now, and i've come to dread his starts.its getting worse too.

GoBLUinTX

June 12th, 2014 at 10:26 AM ^

effective last year either.  Two things, he may have peaked in 2011 and if he hopes to find that magic again he may need a change of scenery.

jdon

June 12th, 2014 at 12:39 AM ^

I think he has been on top for so long that he was bound to come back down... I just think that he was so good for so long that opponents spent countless hours studying him, as the tape piled up people figured him out... then he figured it all out at the end of last year and now we are back to the hitters being ahead again.

jdon