OT: vague, baseless USC disciplinary prediction

Submitted by Asquaredroot on February 19th, 2010 at 4:31 AM

Will it be condemnation for the Condom Nation?

The first of 3 days of USC basketball and football infractions hearings has begun:

I have no real information upon which to base a prediction, just 37 years of jaded experience, so without further ado here goes my vague, baseless prediction:

USC football will get a slap on the wrist... I dunno what exactly. Maybe a fine, but neither postseason eligibility nor victories will be sacrificed.

To compensate for this egregious sham, the NCAA will try to make themselves look tough on USC by bringing a slightly weightier mallet (not of the BOOM! Malleted variety) down on the basketball program. We may see a loss of a scholarship and perhaps a year or two of tournament ineligibility.

There you have it... a completely baseless prediction. The NCAA will punish the lesser of two evils and the pigskin sheepskins will continue to ride roughshod over the PAC-10.

Please indicate your own baseless or otherwise predictions for the men of Troy.



February 19th, 2010 at 9:56 AM ^

They have actually already accepted sanctions against the basketball team that USC suggested. Furthermore, USC proffered a proposal on their football team and it was rejected. That article is rather optimistic.

However, the NCAA knows the whole nation is watching and if they don't do more than slap the wrist, football recruiting will become basketball recruiting.


February 19th, 2010 at 8:30 AM ^

I believe USC football will be hit harder than the OP does. The fact that Pete Carroll left makes me think there is a strong possibility of extreme sanctions.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if all they get is a slap on the wrist.

Steve in PA

February 19th, 2010 at 9:11 AM ^

But I also think that Pete is first and foremost a marketer. He marketed the program to recruits and to TV to make it relevant again. He sees that his own "Pete Carrol" brand could be tarnished so he took the money now rather than risking a lower payout afterward.

I wish Pete all the success in the NFL that Saban had in Miami.


February 19th, 2010 at 9:22 AM ^

I just have a feeling that the Michigan football program will not get off from this current 'thing', with the NCAA. It may be a bullshit rule, and one that no one follows, put practice time restrictions are still on the books. The real smack in the mouth, for Michigan fans, will be if their slap on the wrist is equal to anything our program should get.

Let's see if the NCAA considers a little extra practice, or non-compliance with record keeping equal to paying hundreds of thousands of dollars to recruits.

The problem is, as I see it, there are other big programs in our timezone to fill up TV spots, hype, etc.. On the left coast, USC is it. If any punishments received by the two programs are similiar, then the NCAA is the money grubbing, could care less about student athletes, organization that we all think they are.


February 19th, 2010 at 9:42 AM ^

"Hard" in the case of USC would be a postseason ban and loss of 5-10 scholarships for 3-5 years. In the case of UofM, "hard" would be a loss of two scholarships for two years.

There is no real comparison between the two cases. UofM asked the NCAA to investigate the football program, while the action against USC was brought by the NCAA.

At the very least, I see USC losing scholarships and postseason play for a year.


February 19th, 2010 at 9:47 AM ^

there is no comparison. So if anything comes of the inquisition into UM, and a penalty comes down and it compares to what USC's football program gets, fuck the NCAA. We should tell them to piss off.

I agree with posters above, I think they bring the hammer down on their basketball program.


February 19th, 2010 at 4:58 PM ^

thank you. The "USC football is the NCAA's cash cow" propaganda is viral. Everyone loves to believe it, but it's wishful thinking. I was curious was the exact breakdown of revenue was and pulled the NCAA's audited financial statements here.


Summary: last year, total revenue was a little more than $700 million for the NCAA, and $552 million of that was "TV Marketing Rights and Fees" (i.e., their contract with CBS for the basketball tourney).

The rest of the revenue comes from:

1. Championships and tournaments (which I'm guessing it the gate and ancillary sales at those events) $76 Million.

2. Investment income (presumably not a client of Bernie Madoff) $9 million.

3. Sales and services (don't know what this might be ... pretty generic) $16 million.

4. Other misc stuff with not a whole lot of dollars

BTW, their contract with CBS goes through 2013 (and will get either renewed or go to another network for big money), so they have no real incentive to protect or not protect any of their member institutions. I.e., the same money is coming whether KU or Duke makes the field or not. For long-term negotiations with CBS or any other network, obviously they'd want their high profile basketball schools in good standing, but beyond that, I can't imagine any one school in football or basketball being treated differently than another for a strictly financial reason.


February 19th, 2010 at 9:57 AM ^

I also think USC will get a real punishent this time. They are in a down cycle and the NCAA doesn't like Lane Kiffin. When USC is in an up cycle, they are pretty much immune to consequences, but I think the NCAA may choose to beat their chests and pound the bully pulpit about how "fair" they are this time.

At least that's what I hope they do.


February 19th, 2010 at 10:12 AM ^

the football program gets hit.

I just can't see how the NCAA doesn't drop the hammer here. First you have USC's apparent violations and then they go and hire the walking violation to be their head coach?? USC is daring the NCAA to do something.


February 19th, 2010 at 11:23 AM ^

and something better come of it. I don't think it will only be a slap on the wrist but more of a shot to the gut. Nothing to put them down for the count but it's going to hurt them for the short term and get their attention for the long term.

Zone Left

February 19th, 2010 at 12:20 PM ^

USC will get some sanctions--wins vacated during Reggie Bush's timeframe and probably three or four scholarships that they can retroactively apply to past classes.

The big question is what happens next. Kiffin has a proclivity for violating the NCAA's rulebook and USC should be on probation for the next couple of years. The real fallout may be that USC gets Alabama style sanctions (significant scholarship reductions) that result from future "Kiffin-esque" violations because of probation from Reggie Bush and OJ Mayo.

Side note: I went to Vegas with my wife this weekend, and saw Reggie Bush and Kim Kardashian at our hotel. Both are about half the size you'd expect. Reggie couldn't have been bigger than 5-10, 180--but the bodyguard was a full-on monster. Also, we ended up hanging out with a guy who claimed long-time USC ties as a former player and parent of a recent player. "I've known Lane for a long time, and he's there because it was a package deal with his staff." The quote may be slightly inacurrate (many drinks) but that was the gyst.


February 19th, 2010 at 1:03 PM ^

I largely agree that the football team will receive a relatively minor sentence, though I fully expect there to be some future scholarship reductions, if even for a year. This is an eyesore for the NCAA, and they'll want to look like they did something substantive to remedy it, not just waive their fists. As for the basketball team, my guess is the self-imposed postseason ban will be extended for at least a year, and probably more scholarship reductions. Everyone knew that guys like Mayo and Gibson had some baggage when they joined, and Floyd apparently had some skeletons in his closet from Iowa St. that USC chose to ignore.