OT: U.S. Opponent for 2nd Round Scenarios

Submitted by Brady2Terrell on June 23rd, 2010 at 12:49 PM

USA!!  With a win over Algeria today, the U.S. is through to the 2nd round, and won their pool for the first time since 1930 (that's right, kids, the Hoover Administration).  Our 2nd round opponent for Saturday's 2:30pm matchup will be the 2nd place team in Group D, which will depend on the outcome of this afternoon's games.  IF:

GER > GHA, SER > AUS, then the U.S. plays Serbia (unless Serbia scores 3 more goals than Germany).

GER > GHA, SER = AUS, then the U.S. plays either Ghana or Serbia, depending on the goal differential of the GER/GHA game.

GER > GHA, AUS > SER, then the U.S. plays Ghana (unless the amount GHA loses by and the amount AUS wins by total 5 goals or more).

GER = GHA, SER > AUS, then the U.S. plays Ghana.

GER = GHA, SER = AUS, then the U.S. plays Germany (unless Serbia scores 3 more goals than Germany).

GER = GHA, AUS > SER, then the U.S. plays Germany (unless the amount Australia wins by totals 7 goals or more).

GHA > GER, SER > AUS, then the U.S. plays Serbia.

GHA > GER, SER = AUS, then the U.S. plays Serbia.

GHA > GER, AUS > SER, then the U.S. plays Australia.

Assuming all teams are equal, the U.S. has roughly a 38.9% chance of playing Serbia, a 27.8% chance of playing Ghana,  a 22.2% chance of playing Germany and an 11.1% chance of playing Australia (barring huge goal differential swings this afternoon).

A U.S. win in the 2nd round would mean facing the winner of Uraguay and Mexico South Korea for the right to the Semifinals, a truly wonderful draw for Team USA.

Don't Tread On Us!!!

Comments

Yinka Double Dare

June 23rd, 2010 at 12:55 PM ^

It's winner of Uruguay and South Korea, not Mexico.  Mexico gets a rematch of their 2006 round of 16 loss to Argentina, followed by the winner of England/winner of D.  BRUTAL path to the semis for Mexico.

Our round of 16 opponent is almost certainly going to be better than the quarterfinal opponent should the US advance.

mfan_in_ohio

June 23rd, 2010 at 12:59 PM ^

I think the U.S. can beat all of those teams, but I would  be really worried about Germany and Klose against our center backs.  I'd rather see Ghana or Australia, but Australia isn't going to happen.  Ghana without Essien is beatable, and did not look all that strong against Australia.

Yinka Double Dare

June 23rd, 2010 at 1:00 PM ^

I think given those scenarios that it is unlikely that we end up playing Germany.  And thank God for that.

Serbia has six guys playing on yellow cards.  Depending on how chippy their match gets (or how much of a lunatic the ref is), they could have quite a few guys suspended for the next match should they move on.

zlionsfan

June 23rd, 2010 at 1:01 PM ^

Nate Silver had second place in Group D broken down like this:

50% Serbia
29% Ghana
15% Germany

which would leave 6% for Australia. (I think he truncated rather than rounded, because the odds in the table that he's been updating don't quite match the knockout round graphic.)

AKWolverine

June 23rd, 2010 at 1:07 PM ^

...was head-to-head.  If GER > GHA, SER > AUS, then both Serbia and Germany are 2-1-0=6 pts, but Serbia beat Germany head-to-head, which means SER would be first and GER would be 2nd, and the U.S would get Germany. If GER > GHA, SER = AUS, then Germany is first with 6 points, and both GHA and SER are 1-1-1=4 pts, but Ghana would advance (and play the US) because they beat Serbia head-to-head (regardless of goal differential).  Am I wrong about this?

 

EDIT: nevermind.  That comes after goal differential.  My bad.

mrguy

June 23rd, 2010 at 1:07 PM ^

I am hoping for Ghana (Australia would be awesome but that's not likely). I don't think we do well against Eastern Europeans teams. But I think Serbia is more liekly.

mgopat

June 23rd, 2010 at 1:17 PM ^

Even if these are slightly off (which I gather from reading the comments), I was clueless to most of this information, and I assume a whole lot of the mgoblog readers are in the same boat. So thanks a lot for taking the time to do this.

BiaBiakabutuka21

June 23rd, 2010 at 4:03 PM ^

this scenario is looking likely:

GER > GHA, AUS > SER, then the U.S. plays Ghana (unless the amount GHA loses by and the amount AUS wins by total 5 goals or more).

 

Can Aus score and Germany both score another goal?

If not it looks like we have Ghana.  Who do people prefer between Ghana and Serbia?