OT- Tigers close to long term extension to Miguel Cabrera
Less than a week after being turned down by Max Scherzer the Tigers have set their attention to Miguel Cabrera, and it appears they're close to making Miggy a Tiger for life.
Miguel Cabrera and the tigers are closing in on a mega extension for the two-time mvp. story on http://t.co/RFVISfIo8t.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) March 27, 2014
Tigers, Miguel Cabrera close to an extension, source confirms @JonHeymanCBS report. The AAV of new years expected to be around $30MM.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) March 27, 2014I'm scared that this ultimately become like the Angels signing of Pujols a few years down the road. But you can't just let him go at this point in his career. Hopefully he's healthy all this year.
That may be true, but with Pujols I think there was a sense he might have been damaged goods a bit, or at least there were questions about his age and possible performance enhancements. I don't think those exist with Cabrera, and anyway, considering how much he helps the bottom line in terms of fans, merchandise sales, etc., this is a cash positive move regardless of his performance at the end of the contract.
March 27th, 2014 at 11:05 PM ^
Why is Miggy any less subject to questions of PEDs than Pujols? To my knowledge the only links ever made between Pujols and PEDs are speculative ones made by radio hosts disclaiming any inside knowledge.
They're both big and powerful. They have both been incredibly good. What makes one different than the other?
March 27th, 2014 at 10:46 PM ^
Miggy will go down as one of the 5 greatest hitters of all time if he stays healthy. Granted that's a big risk, but if you are going to gamble this kind of money, it should be on a guy with a sweet, natural swing who plays every day. He's so smart that I can see him adjusting well as his body ages. He should retire a Tiger and have his statue out there in left field in about a dozen years. Plus, unlike Pujols, he is a great teammate who makes those around him better.
We're gonna need a bigger boat....
I don't care what anyone else says. Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter I've ever seen play the game. He's worth all of the money in baseball.
Bonds is the best I've ever seen, but Miggy is damn close.
People have either forgotten or chosen to dismiss how good Bonds was even before the roids. He was amazing.
And apparently Ken Griffey Jr. wound up on the side of a milk carton as well. Back-to-back 56 bomb seasons in Seattle before his body started to fall apart. And with the most beautiful swing I've ever seen.
March 27th, 2014 at 10:12 PM ^
March 27th, 2014 at 10:35 PM ^
Griffey just had an amazing swing...
the thing about people like bonds and cabrera is how deep they understand 'the art of pitching' lol... but seriously those two get one or two decent pitches a day and destroy them...
I also remember wade boggs as a kid...
Opening day 97 we sat in the center field bleachers. Grffey flipped us off everytime he took the field, hit a bomb right at us in the middle innings and continued to talk mad shit the rest of the game.
He was a great player, but I think he would be remembered more like Griffey or Thomas had be "gracefully" faded away. His numbers were leveling off the way you expect for an older player in 98 and 99, then all of a sudden he exploded. He was a great hitter in his peak, but had he scuffled through a couple of .250 seasons with 25 HRs and 80 RBIs, I think he would have been minized a bit as well.
For my money, the best pure hitters (power plus average) were young A-Rod, young Bonds, Vlad, and Edgar Martinez. And Tony Gwynn could turn any pitch into a single.
age 24/age 35 pictures look like that.
Bonds was an incredible hitter, he played the juice game to get the noteriety of the big home runs like McGwire and Sosa were getting. For 15 years of his career he was clean and the best hitter in the last 30 years.
That is what always baffled me about Bonds. He was on his way to a Hall of Fame career before his massive ego decided he needed to be the home run king as well.
very shallow when it came to money. He saw the big contracts guys like McGwire/Sosa were getting so he went for it, and was rewarded mind you, with steroids. Sad really, because he could have been remembered as one of the all-time best. No one remembers he was a 40/40 guy before the roids. He's a lot like Clemens who chose to juice up at the end of a great career that tarnishes his whole list of accomplishments, Clemens didn't need to do it but did it to stay in the game and keep making the millions.
Would imagine it is hard to turn down cash for better odds, especially somone in Scherzer's situation:
- Cash you can see, hold, spend, and use to blow lines off strippers. Odds are abstract and have subjective components.
- You and I understand measuring the odds as the outset to calculate and evaluate the best decision, regardless of result that in fact occurs. Most people don't. Examples of bad results that make your less cash decision look bad in hindsight include, but are not limited to: (1) Talking less cash and still not winning; (2) Team doesn't spend the cash you save them; (3) Team spends cash you save them on D-Train; (4) Team would have won the World Series anyway; (5) and the best one, team trades you and beats your new team in the World Series in part because of the cash they saved on you.
- There is always "I was the best pitcher in the AL last year why am I susposed to take less cash and player X is not. Why don't you ask him to improve our odds because he's not doing it with his play, as I am."
- Another point would be this whole thing assumes the tigers are operating within a budget-like thing where taking less cash is even a relevant consideration in calculating odds. This also assumes the reports are true regarding the negotiation.
Scherzer is a smart guy that almost certainly understands the risks to a certain degree. He also knows how he's pitching going into the year and how healthy he currently is.
IMO, these are his odds:
CY repeat: 15%. $225 million contract.
"Ace" caliber season: 55%. $200 million contract.
Average season plagued by minor injuries: 20%. $90 million contract.
Major, but not career ending injury: 8%. $20 million.
Career ending injury: 2%. $2 million (someone will give him a chance).
Expected earnings = $163 million, "median" earnings is $200 million. Not shocking that he turned down $140 million, especially when he's already made $30+ million and (probably) doesn't really need the money - he can afford to take the risk.
What get's me with Scherzer is that he still has one more year left in Detroit. I can easily see turning down money if he was a free agent now. What if he doesn't have another Cy Young type year or get's hurt? I wonder is another team is going to give him $24+ million a year then? I think it all comes down to that he probably just doesn't want to be in Detroit.
The deal is done. Waiting for an official conformation from the team, but right now it sounds like the length is six years.
Over at HardballTalk, they thought it was for seven years, bur if the AAV is accurate, we're likely looking at something in the neighborhood of $210 million for the total length of the contract. Acorrding to them, that would set a record for a position player, but as it is Miguel Cabrera, as a post above clearly says, "Shut up and take my money".
The years are all over the place right now. MLB sources are all split between 6, 7 and 8 years added on to his remaining 2 years.
He's worth giving a blank check to. Best player in baseball hands down
Thanks Illitch family!
Everyone get out to the park and buy a couple $9 beers. Seriously, do it b/c the Illitch family has really gone all in the past 10 years.
The reason I eat Little Caesars more I should.
But this could end up being a huge problem in about 5 years. With steroids more out of the game now, players are back to having their skills erode around 34 like they used to. MIggy is amazing but let's hope he doesn't deteriorate like a lot of players do.
Miggy isn't your typical slugger though - a guy that hits for contact to all fields. That's the prototype that's less likely to suffer a big decline.
I look at guys like Ortiz - if Cabrera is a .300 / 30 / 100 guy that gets related to DH by the time the deal is done, then it was a good deal.
You'll always pay "above market" at the end of these deals, that's just reality.
I agree to a point. I'm not convinced Ortiz is clean though. He's been linked to steroids several times in the past and lots of his teammates have been busted. But who knows? Honestly, giving the money to Cabrera is probalby better than giving it to Scherzer, who could have been a 1-year wonder or who could blow out his elbow next week.
The onyl people who think Ortiz is clean are delusional Red Sox fans.
I get the impression from people in my life who are currently (and another recently) trying to break into the bigs that steroids aren't so much out of the game as they are out of the public media. But then again, maybe I am a random internet poster who made that up. And if I didn't make that up, maybe they were lying to me or it was constrained within the teams they were on.
Maybe you are, but it's a dead certainty that PEDs are still a major issue in Baseball and in other sports. Testing is good, but most sports test in ways that can be worked around without too much issue. Lance Armstrong, of course, never failed a test, but with some effort he (and virtually all of his competition) juiced to the gills and dodged the tests with impunity.
It's pretty simple: If there is a benefit to juicing, and an accessible way to avoid being caught, people will do it. And some of those people will rise to the top of the sport. Whatever sport it is.
True but Torri Hunter just had an excellent year at 38. It's very player specific and nothing in Miguel's game relies on speed (other than speed of bat). If it's 7 years and an extension to his contract that ends in 2015 he will be 38 at the end of it... if it's 5 good years and 2 years of "overpaying" for the best or 2nd best hitter of this generation, that's part of the game.
As for Pujols comparison, some (such as Heyman himself) question his real age. He currently is listed as 34 but say he is 36... his slowing down makes some sense.
Seven years, north of $200M.
According to ESPN...Miguel Cabrera & Tigers agree on deal that will pay him just under $300 million over next 10 years.
ok 10 years? thats too far in my eyes. Yikes.
EDIT: the 10 years include the 2 current years so an 8 year extension.
Jerry Crasnick reported that the extension was for eight years and would pay Cabrera $300 million over 10 years, including the two years he has remaining on his current deal.