OT: Tigers at the 1/8th point

Submitted by Rodriguesqe on April 22nd, 2018 at 7:32 PM

This board was pretty negative about this team in the preseason thread, so I imagine those following along aren't too down about the 9-11 start.

Ceartainly not a great team, but if they keep this pace up and the young guys keep playing well they will be worth watching into fall camp. Last year I bailed in early May. I'm more optimistic this year.

Comments

Yessir

April 23rd, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^

Still good news though.  As long as we are not one of them... bottom feeders.  Seems a lot of people expect this rebuild to be really painful, so not being a cellar dweller will be fine with me this year. 

bacon1431

April 22nd, 2018 at 7:36 PM ^

On pace for around 70 wins. Honestly, I still think that’s our best case scenario. Just too little hitting and awful bullpen. I just want to avoid 100 losses.

JonnyHintz

April 22nd, 2018 at 9:46 PM ^

Why exactly? I mean theyre bad. I’m not saying tank necessarily, but give some young guys who are ready some playing time. If it means losing more games, that just means a better draft pick and you’re stocking up the farm system.

Guys like Lugo, Stewart and Gerber. Get them up to the big leagues as often as possible and get them on the field.

bacon1431

April 22nd, 2018 at 10:11 PM ^

Draft position isn’t nearly as important as it is in other sports since there are few instant impact guys. Tigers have also benefitted from players dropping to them because they’ve typically been willing to pay to make sure players don’t go to college.

I mostly don’t want 100 losses because I don’t want attendance to dip significantly, and it’s also a sign that the young players aren’t getting it done (along with aging veterans and mediocre players). There’s little to no benefit to losing so much. People will point to the Astros but their success has more to do with identification and development of talent

FatGuyTouchdown

April 23rd, 2018 at 1:06 AM ^

Cubs and Nationals all used multiple top picks to rebuild their team. Scouting and Development has gotten better. And it's not necessarily about having the best pick in the first round, but by having the best/better pick in multiple rounds. Over 25-30 rounds, The difference between the 4th pick and the 12th pick becomes pretty tangible.

bacon1431

April 23rd, 2018 at 7:11 AM ^

One you get into the 100s, I doubt draft position makes much of a difference st all. Team boards are going to vary so much. The team picking last in the previous round is just as likely to upset your board as the team ahead of you.

Broken Brilliance

April 22nd, 2018 at 7:43 PM ^

And also BRING BACK THE OLD UNIFORMS. Was very displeased to see several dopes at the ballpark today that had purchased those gas station knockoff caps and jerseys with the wrong D on them.

WMUgoblue

April 22nd, 2018 at 7:55 PM ^

Excited to see JaCoby Jones step forward thus far. I was at the game with a group of friends yesterday and while the attendance reflects the mindset of a rebuilding team they were a blast to watch.

AC1997

April 22nd, 2018 at 8:19 PM ^

The goal for the season is to find a handful of young players that can be part of the future.  There are some names so far this season that are trending in the right direction, but too early to know yet.  But it has been better than expected - especially if you flip that opening day game to a win without the weird replay.  

Rodriguesqe

April 22nd, 2018 at 8:33 PM ^

Exactly, and I think the question is: is this a 3 year or 5+ year rebuild? And, do we have an owner who will spend  when the time comes?

Nick and Iggy will be moved regardless, but I think how well the young guys play determines whether we trade Fulmer / Boyd. Either of those guys might earn a good haul at the deadline.

ckersh74

April 22nd, 2018 at 10:40 PM ^

We don't know. I'm not exactly convinced that this is a 5-year build. 

The 2003 Tigers lost 119 games. Even in 2005 one jackass beat writer (Lynn Henning) proclaimed that the Tigers were "5-10 years from contending". I'll give you one good guess as to just how the Tigers fared over the next 8 seasons. 

Trades and free agency can remake a franchise very quickly. Looking past this season is a crapshoot. Looking past next season is silly at best. 

Rodriguesqe

April 22nd, 2018 at 11:04 PM ^

Right. But we'll have a better idea about Candyman, JJ, JJ the pitcher, maybe even some of the farm hands later in the year. I don't want to say if Candyman is ROY plan on a 3 year rebuild, but the guy looks like a star in the making to me (which means less than nothing). 

I dont want ten years of sucking. I was born in the early 80s. The Tigers sucked till I was mid 20s. The Cubs model can work (with luck), but so can the Dombrowski model (talented GM).

If things look gloomy I'd favor going all in on a rebuild, but once you go all in you never know when you are getting out.

LS And Play

April 22nd, 2018 at 8:24 PM ^

This is a five year rebuild. The Tigers should be losing as much as possible now and stockpile draft picks. They'll be competitive again in 2022 or 2023. 

ckersh74

April 22nd, 2018 at 8:35 PM ^

They have 3 wins each over KC, the White Sox and the Orioles. Those three teams are about 76 games under .500 already. Cleveland has already pushed their shit in 4 times, and only a weekend full of rain-outs washed out a couple more beatings at the hands of the Yankees. They haven't seen the Astros or the Red Sox yet. 

This 9-11 start is fool's gold. 

LSAClassOf2000

April 22nd, 2018 at 8:50 PM ^

You know, I wasn't exactly sure what to expect other than perhaps, on the high end of my estimate, this is a .500 team at absolute best, and they'll likely fall short of that - well short. That being said, 9-11 is the sort of start that I thought they might be able to achieve, although May and June may be lean months, looking at the schedule.

Trying not to have too many expectations in what is the first year of a rebuild has kept me from being too down. They'll probably be able to push around teams like the Royals and White Sox a bit, but that Cleveland performance is probably something we're going to see quite a bit sadly.

I will agree with that article though - all this aside, this team is actually more fun to watch than you would think. 

RainbowSprings

April 22nd, 2018 at 8:52 PM ^

This is going to be a very long rebuild. No real young offensive talent blooming. Just a bunch of hackers hoping to get to the majors by age 25, or so. Whoop-dee-doo. And I have no confidence Avila knows how to select or develop better young players.

ckersh74

April 22nd, 2018 at 10:28 PM ^

There's a LOT of position guys in that boat in the Tiger system. Never mind the pitching for a moment. 

Mike Gerber will be 26 in July and is just getting to AAA. 
Christin Stewart is 24 and he's in the same boat.
Greyson Greiner is a 25 year old catcher just starting AAA
Cam Gibson is 24 and he's still in HIGH-A BALL

Erie (AA) has a roster loaded with guys who are 23-25 years old. Lakeland (High A) isn't a whole lot different.

They've got a whole lot of guys who are in full-blown, shit-or-get-off-the-pot mode right now. If they don't start contributing IN DETROIT by the end of next season (and not just getting a cup of coffee or getting their feet wet), they're going to go from "prospects" to "organizational depth" in the blink of an eye. Once you get past 25, you're not exactly a prospect. It's later than most people realize for a lot of these guys.

Greiner in particular needs to get here quickly. 25 year old catchers don't exactly have long careers in front of them. 

ckersh74

April 22nd, 2018 at 10:53 PM ^

Stewart is a virtual statue defensively. He's a DH, if he ever gets here. Gerber may be able to play every day, but no, he's not exactly a perennial All Star, either. 

I'm operating under the assumption that Iglesias is not going to be a Tiger past this season. If that's the case, they may move Machado to SS and take a look at Lugo at 2B. But again, he's going to have to get here fairly quickly as well. 

umchicago

April 22nd, 2018 at 11:08 PM ^

they got some potential middle infield talent from those trades last year.  they need one of them and one ML outfielder to pan out.  that would leave a solid base to rebuild from.

they also have several solid C prospects. if one of them pans out in the next year,  a trade of mccann could bring other prospects.

so in 2-3 years, they can figure out who can play, and by that time, a few of these P studs should be ready.  so the tigers will have a very young and inexpensive team by 2020.  they could then fill holes with free agents and field a competitive team.

it would take a complete failure of all the trades last year and all the recent P draft picks for this team not to be competitive in 2020.

Torchlakeblue

April 22nd, 2018 at 8:52 PM ^

I would have thought this year. Their pitching will get much worse with the warm weather IMO. They are fun to watch right now. Went to the day game on Friday. Paid about 17 bucks for 10 rows above the dugout. Can’t complain about that. Also bet my buddy $1 that jacoby will hit a walk off with 30-1 odds. Ended up a nice free day for me. Norris is my tiger and his fastball velocity is concerning. Hopefully he figures it out. Also looks like we have closet issues. What’s new there. Although Greene did get kind of screwed Friday night.

bronxblue

April 22nd, 2018 at 9:16 PM ^

They're better than I expected, but still figuring it out.  The pitching is a step better than I expected, and the hitting is about where I assumed.  What I hope they do is get a good half-season from Liriano and then trade him to a contender for some prospects, which would be a great return on a low-risk investment.

They won't be competing for a couple of years, but I think their future is brighter than I expected coming into the season, and I see them competing sooner than later.

What astounds me is how fast KC fell from WS team to possibly the worst team in the league.  I get it can be hard to keep your talent together as a smaller market team, but that's barely a major league roster anymore and it's not like they were the Marlins purposely having fire sales.  

Boner Stabone

April 22nd, 2018 at 10:42 PM ^

Send Buck Farmer and Alex Wilson away.  I am done with those 2 gas cans.  They are not good and I would rather see some minor league guys take their spot in the bullpen.