OT: !st Round NFL Draft Breakdown by Conference, recruiting ranking.
Interesting breakdown of the first round last night, ACC and PAC 12 both had 9 first round picks, the B1G had 3, SEC had 7. Also interesting because the chart provides recruiting rankings, and we see about half the first round picks were 4 or 5 star recruits, and only a couple were the 2 star sleeper type. another recruiting ranking validation IMO.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/4/30/8526529/nfl-draft-20…
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
of all rated recruits, the fact that 50% of the first round picks are rated that highly means mathematically the segment is far over-represented, thus validating the rating.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
is when someone readily admits they are wrong on the MGoBoard and immediately owns up to it rather than get defensive and offended. Have an upvote, rational MGoUser. Cheers to you.
Cosign. Not just the MGoBoard -- this is a skill we all need more in our daily lives.
Half of 1st rounders were 4 or 5 stars. Only a fraction of recruits are 4 or 5 star recruits. Math.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
I was writing a report on our 2012 class (havent posted it - too negative and people have been on my case about not being homer enough) :P but just in rough terms there are about 30-40 five stars in any year, and 300ish four stars. Then your 3 stars are at least in the 600ish+ range and could be much larger - 247 cuts off their "NTL" rank at 1000 but guys who were not in the top 1000 were 3 star composites so I imagine its probably closer to 800 to 1000+ in a class.
(I found it difficult to find the cutoff because Michigan rarely brings in 2 stars but Minnesota's entire 2012 class was 3 star or less. And they have plenty of 3 stars past the 1000 mark.)
http://minnesota.247sports.com/Season/2012-Football/Commits
I can't even imagine how many 2 stars there are in any year - has to be 1000s if the 3 star group is any indicator.
So bottom line you only have aboout 350 4/5 stars in any 1 class in the country to be drafted. So if say 60 of them go in the first 3 rounds thats a near 20% hit rate which would be pretty good. Meanwhile if you had 60 2/3 stars go in the first 3 rounds, that's a testament to those players but a quite low hit rate all things considered.
I don't think anyone anywhere is saying in aggregrate recruiting rankings and stars don't matter at the 40,000 foot view. But for any one player they become a lot less of a great guide. 5 stars maybe the exception - but a lot of those are either home run/triple or strikeout prospects for some odd reason.
@AllenTrieu: Tracked what each 1st Round pick was rated out of high school. 21/32 were a 4 or 5 star on at least one site.
Another way to think about it - its the same reason that a Samoan male kid is 56 times more likely to play in the NFL than the average American kid, but you don't see 56 Samoans being drafted in the NFL for every person born in the US.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Just refuse to believe or simply don't understand that there are hunders more 2-3 star recruits than 4-5 star. I don't get how they can't see that this is validation.
I guess maybe if someone put numbers to how many 4-5 stars went undrafted as opposed to how many 2-3 stars did, maybe then they would believe that stars are indeed a good indicator of talent.
people refuse to accept facts every day
Or as someone else just said, people can't do basic math any more.
Statistically speaking, 60% of 5* get drafted; 3% of 2* do.
you are 20 times (i.e., 2,000%) more likely to be drafted as a 5* recruit than as a 2* one.
That's a substantial difference in outcome. However particular Michigan 5* recruits have developed thus far, I think I'll trust the law of large numbers and hope Michigan takes as many 5*'s as they can.
Yes I think the conversation here is being clouded by the ho hum performance of our 5 stars. Hell even our 4 stars the past half decade (some of our best guys have been 3s - Henry, Ryan, Clark, etc)
I dont think anyone in Alabama is having this conversation.
If our strike rate was better for the top 100 type guys (high 4s included in here like a Dymonte Thomas) it would be a different perceptioon. Right now fans of TN, TX, UM etc are probably talking about this while those at USC, FSU, Bama are like WTF type of conversation is this?
For anyone curious here is a compilation of UM's 5 stars + uber highly ranked 4 stars (i.e. top 100ish type players) since 2004 for perspective. Every year is going to have hits and misses but a lot more of our guys in this area actually were hitting even in those late Carr classes vs recently as serious NFL prospects - 2004 and 2006 had some real good ones.
Things have not been so good since. I consider a top end NFL guy a 1st thru 3rd rounder and outside of Mallett (who didnt play the bulk of his career here) there is no one from 2007 to 2011 who is 1st/2nd day draft choice. Heck, a lot of these guys in that era didn't even contribute in college, forget being a fringe NFL guy. That is why UM fans are so clouded on this discussion IMO - our top end HS guys have not become NFL guys for a long time. It's actually quite bad when you look at this vs a team like say LSU. (I picked LSU because I did a lot of work on their recruiting and development during the CC in re: Miles - it is staggering the difference between the 2 programs in the past 8 years)
Not going to go into a tangent in the 2012-2013 classes because it there is still time for linemen to develop but it's going to take a lot of work and development for more than 1-2 of those guys to become a 1st thru 3rd rounders as well. And you can already see some high profile trending misses unless something changes 180 degrees.
| Year | * | NTL Rnk | |
| 2004 | Chad Henne | 5 | 18 |
| 2004 | Tim Jamison | 4 | 42 |
| 2004 | Doug Dutch | 4 | 71 |
| 2004 | Brett Gallimore | 4 | 80 |
| 2004 | Will Johnson | 4 | 85 |
| 2004 | Adrian Arrington | 4 | 97 |
| 2005 | Kevin Grady | 5 | 21 |
| 2005 | Marques Slocum | 5 | 34 |
| 2005 | Mario Manningham | 4 | 51 |
| 2005 | Antonio Bass | 4 | 56 |
| 2005 | James McKinney | 4 | 75 |
| 2005 | Cory Zirbel | 4 | 102 |
| 2006 | Brandon Graham | 5 | 14 |
| 2006 | Justin Boren | 4 | 40 |
| 2006 | Stephen Schilling | 4 | 41 |
| 2006 | Jonas Mouton | 4 | 53 |
| 2006 | Carlos Brown | 4 | 68 |
| 2006 | Adam Patterson | 4 | 86 |
| 2007 | Ryan Mallet | 5 | 5 |
| 2007 | Donovan Warren | 4 | 27 |
| 2007 | Michael Williams | 4 | 72 |
| 2007 | Toney Clemons | 4 | 96 |
| 2008 | Darryl Stonum | 4 | 48 |
| 2008 | Dann O'Neill | 4 | 67 |
| 2008 | J.B. Fitzgerald | 4 | 106 |
| 2009 | Caig Roh | 4 | 69 |
| 2009 | Je'Ron Stokes | 4 | 90 |
| 2009 | Justin Turner | 4 | 91 |
| 2009 | Will Campbell | 4 | 96 |
| 2010 | Devin Gardner | 4 | 70 |
| 2010 | Demar Dorsey | 4 | 86 |
| 2011 | none | ||
| 2012 | Kyle Kalis | 4 | 49 |
| 2012 | Ondre Pipkins | 4 | 60 |
| 2012 | Joe Bolden | 4 | 75 |
| 2012 | Erik Magnuson | 4 | 83 |
| 2013 | Derrick Green | 5 | 27 |
| 2013 | Patrick Kugler | 4 | 68 |
| 2013 | Dymonte Thomas | 4 | 71 |
| 2013 | Shane Morris | 4 | 72 |
| 2013 | Kyle Bosch | 4 | 87 |
| 2013 | David Dawson | 4 | 95 |
| 2014 | Jabrill Peppers | 5 | 3 |
| 2014 | Drake Harris | 4 | 67 |
| 2015 | Brian Cole | 4 | 74 |
What is most concerning is that especially since the 2008 class when Rich Rod started, through now, there is such a dropoff in serious draft prospects.
We should reserve judgment on the guys who are juniors and seniors now, like Morris, Bosch, Kalis, and Green, because I think piss poor coaching by Hoke's regime has left them totally under-developed (especially on offensive side), but anyone not wearing maize and blue glasses has to look at this list and say WTF?
We used to churn out NFL keepers like clockwork, and since Carr left, both recruiting and coaching up those recruits have been just abysmal. It would be interesting to compare the same period of 4 and 5 * recruits from Bama and OSU and see what % of those guys got drafted.
Their absolute numbers of recruits will be higher for sure, but it's the % of the guys we recruited who got drafted that really would be the tell all of how far we went off the plantation. I would bet both OSU and Bama (and Auburn, LSU, USC, etc) have significantly higher % of those top recruits drafted.
This is exactly why HARBAUGH is here. May God bless him.
Math is your friend, or should be.
It validates that, in general, a 4 or 5 star recruit has a better chance of making it to the next level. It says nothing about the value of any individual 4 or 5 star player EXCEPT in that statistically they have a higher EXPECTED value.
Which, I guess, does marginally validate the star ranking system.
I would be very interested in the average star ratings of each NFL roster over time. I'm willing to bet that it would be lower than people expect. Late bloomers are far more prevalent than sure things out of high school is my guess.
Not a huge sample but I think is more the norm than not. I present the 2014 All NFL team with their highschool ranking:
http://www.maxpreps.com/news/zhM-4c0zfUyau1sUq4TAjQ/how-did-players-on-…
Offense QB – Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Pleasant Valley (Chico, Calif.), no ranking RB – Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers – Groveport-Madison (Groveport, Ohio), 3 stars RB – DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys – Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas), 5 stars WR – Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers – Norland (Miami), 0 stars WR – Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys – Lufkin (Texas), 4 stars TE – Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots – Woodland Hills (Pittsburgh), 4 stars T – Tyron Smith, Dallas Cowboys – Rancho Verde (Moreno Valley, Calif.), 4 stars T – Joe Thomas, Cleveland Browns – Brookfield Central (Wis.), 4 stars G – Josh Sitton, Green Bay Packers – Pensacola Catholic (Fla.), 2 stars G – Marshal Yanda, Baltimore Ravens – Mason City (Iowa), 3 stars C – Travis Frederick, Dallas Cowboys – Big Foot (Walworth, Wis.), 3 stars Defense DE – Mario Williams, Buffalo Bills – Richlands (N.C.), 4 stars DE – J.J. Watt, Houston Texans – Pewaukee (Wis.), 2 stars* DT – Marcell Dareus, Buffalo Bills – Huffman (Birmingham, Ala.), 4 stars DT – Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions – Grant (Portland, Ore.), 4 stars OLB – Justin Houston, Kansas City Chiefs – Statesboro (Ga.), 3 stars OLB – Von Miller, Denver Broncos – DeSoto (Texas), 3 stars MLB – Luke Kuechly, Carolina Panthers – St. Xavier (Cincinnati), 3 stars CB – Darrelle Revis, New England Patriots – Aliquippa (Pa.), 3 stars CB – Richard Sherman, Seattle Seahawks – Dominguez (Compton, Calif.), 3 stars S – Earl Thomas, Seattle Seahawks – West Orange-Stark (Orange, Texas), 3 stars S – Eric Weddle, San Diego Chargers – Alta Loma (Calif.), 2 stars K – Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis Colts – Rapid City Central (S.D.), no ranking P – Pat McAfee, Indianapolis Colts – Plum (Pittsburgh), 2 stars KR – Adam Jones, Cincinnati Bengals – Westlake (Atlanta), 2 stars PR – Darren Sproles, Philadelphia Eagles – Olathe North (Kan.), no ranking ST – Matthew Slater, New England Patriots – Servite (Anaheim, Calif.), no ranking
Well thats ugly. But see it nicer on the maxpreps page!
Or 2015 Superbowl teams!
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2015/1/21/7861989/s…
The majority of us no longer use it in daily lives.
Also 74% of statistics are made up and people take them at face value without analysis.
On a serious note, most people just don't understand how simple statistics work.
All this means is that I'm happy for Breshad Perriman. Going from two-star to first-rounder is pretty freaking awesome. Good for him.
From 1990 to 2014, 827 Big Ten players were selected in various rounds of the NFL Draft (this excludes Nebraska until 2012 and does not yet include Rutgers and Maryland, as this will be their inaugural year as members). In that period, that's an average of about 33 players per draft with a peak of 45 in 1991 and minimum of 21 in 1993. In the last ten years, the maximum was 41 in 2012 and the minimum was 22 in 2013.
For Michigan specifically, in the period 1999-2014, we sent seven players to the NFL twice - 1991 and 2007. We had one year where we sent one player - 1994. In the last ten years, we send an average of three players per year to the NFL through the draft (not counting UFAs there).
Do you have the 1st round only for the Big 10? I remember it was 2 years ago I believe we only had 1 Big 10 player drafted and it was the last guy in the round.
I tend to look at the first 3 rounds rather than just 1st round as guys who tend to have high college performance. Would be very curious how the Big 10 tracked the past decade vs the 80s or 90s in that regard. Just looking at Michigan alone there seems to be a huge dropoff of late of NFL type players (not talking FA or 7th round types but 1st/2nd day).
For getting drafted in the 1st round, sure. But I think it'd be more interesting to come back in 5 years and see how many of those drafted in the 1st round are starters in the NFL, and sort that by star rating.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
And I should've stated that I'm a (sad) Lions fan and think it's interesting how other teams have been able to find diamonds in the rough with lower picks in lower rounds, and those are typically your 3* and lower college players.
can have an affect on a program. Saban is known for pulling out spreadsheets showing how many Alabama players are in the NFL and what their salaries are. I'm guessing for most of the 5* and a lot of 4* star recruits, their number one goal is the NFL. How many players a program sends to the NFL and how well/how long those players stay in the NFL can have an affect when it comes to recruiting.
I blacked out when the Browns did exactly what I wanted them to do.
Remember Curtis Grant? I thought that kid was going to murder us for four years. Turns out he wasn't involved but the murder still happened... small victory?
...nothing about how successfull the team was last year since:
nobody from the Championship team was drafted, only 5 were drafted that played in the playoff, most of the picks came from teams that had more than 4 losses, the team that had three players drafted had 6 losses and there was a 10 loss team thst had a 1st rounder!
Now if you're saying it proves that 4 or 5 stars have an easier path to the NFL no matter how bad the team is that they're on, yes it validates recruiting rankings in that way. But it does nothing to validate that high ranked recruits are the best way to win in college, even if that "NFL ready" helps a ton.
What I find funny is the SEC had over 35 5* recruits in '10-'11-'12 but only one in this year's first round. And B1G had 2 3* in the top 11.