OT-Soccer Variance
Just a little background, I played Soccer for several years as a youth at a pretty high level so I'm not a Soccer hater or completely ignorant of the sport.
Something popped in my head the other day when I was watching a World Cup promo. I think we can all agree that sports with fewer scoring chances generally have the greatest chance for luck to enter into the outcome and therefore allow for the most upsets in the main sports here in America. In order of upset chances
Hockey-We experienced the Wings enough to know this.
Baseball-If you make the playoffs anything can happen
Football- More upsets lately with the even talent distribution
Basketball- Upset?? Just pencil in LA and Cleveland.
So then I got to thinking about Soccer, I don't follow it very closely, but it appears from a cursory view that the best teams generally win despite the fact it has the least amount of scoring. This seems odd.
I came up with a couple of theories, but I thought I would go old school WDFN and contact the Soccer elite.
Does Soccer have an appropriate upset rate for it's amount of scoring?? If no then why??
Thanks.
Soccer is a defensive minded game, for the most part. Games generally are not won and lost with shots on goal, they are won and lost with sound defensive play and controlling the middle of the field.
The team that controls the middle of the field is generally the team that gets the most chances, thus usually the team that wins.
Soccer requires literally a full team effort to score a goal. So even though there may be only a few goals a game, each one of those goals requires each player on the team to do something to contribute.
Just one take on it, I guess.
...tend to dominate possession in the offensive half of the field. This leads to more scoring chances, especially as the weaker team surrenders corner kicks and free kicks that can either be taken on goal or served into the penalty area.
Teams that score first can alter the way their attacking and defensive schemes to emphasize possession and making the opponent chase. Akin to football, time of possession leads to breakdowns as the game progresses.
I'm sure there are better answers, but that's what comes to mind immediately.
I forget the exact #'s but there have been studies on when the most goals are scored. There is some high percentage, I believe there is around 60% goal/game rate, perhaps even higher, that occur in the final 15 minutes of regulation + injury time. And if you watch the game ever, that actually makes sense.
I also played for years at a high level and follow the game quite a bit still. Everyone has their reasons as to why it's a free-for-all in the final minutes but here's mine: everyone is tired, particularly the defense. These guys run a couple miles each game you have to be in supreme shape to play a full game. Additionally, the guys who usually get subbed (only 3 allowed in pros and international) are usually offensive players meaning guys new forwards come on who are fresh, going against physically depleted defenders. That obviously gives an advantage to the offenses and contributes to more goals in the late minutes and maybe, a few upsets.
1. European Leagues don't have play-offs. There you finish is based on how you play every game through the season, I believe this causes team to take less "nights off" like in major sports in this country.
2. Although scores are lower, in major tournaments the group play allows for a sorting process to occur. It allows 'hot' teams to make it through to the next round while also insuring top teams playing well continue on.
3. Ball possession and poise under pressure play such a huge role in the outcome of games that top talent and mental toughness, more often than not, wins.
I think the talent is distributed much differently. The best/wealthiest teams can simply purchase any player from any willing team instead of having to make a trade. They also obtain young players much differently. In the 4 major U.S. sports, there are drafts that try to distribute talent evenly. In European soccer, teams are free to scout and pursue any young "recruit" they want and get them into an academy at a very young age. In soccer, the rich get richer and it's very hard for low-profile teams to make a name for themselves. Year after year, we have seen the same big-name clubs dominate the sport.
A lot of good comments, but I think you could apply most of the same arguments to Hockey, which is prone to all sorts of upsets.
Your argument for the premier league makes sense, I was thinking more World Cup. You think with the emotion and pressure and lack of scoring upsets would take over. Maybe they have the same amount of upsets, but the pool play mitigates them. Not sure. It just seems the top ranked teams seem to make the finals a lot.
Greece against all odds won the 2004 European Champoinship provides something. Greece executed one of greatest displays of defense ever seen throughout. They beat some best and talent rich teams in the world. Three things helped them win, defense, luck, and timely goals. I forget what the odds were of them winning, but it was highly improbable. I still can't beleive they won.
Hmmm, i AAMOF am a soccer junkie, and there's a saying, the football is lazy, in it gets in whatever the goal line is closer, so if you can have the domain of the ball it'll eventually end up in the rival's net...
But then you have tactics, and i will dare to say that more often than i'd like the team that defends better ends up winning, USA is that kind of team, tries to take good care of the ball, not risking it and annoying rivals, Grece for example won the eurocup in 2004 agaist a much appealing Portugal wich was playing offensively and was spectacular by defending and countering, the catenaccio was invented by the italians and it has given them 4 world cups, on the other hand you have the netherlands wich invented the "clockwork orange" or "total football" wich is spectacular, then again they have 0 world cups
Periods, they're not just for women.
My apologies, i'm still learning =)
So do you think my main point is incorrect that there are a lot of upsets in Soccer or was Greece the outlier?
I had no hard evidence I was going by cursory info I pick up from just being a sports fan.
Don't neglect him.
Anyway, I'd say soccer has a moderate amount of unpredictability. Complete underdogs rarely go all the way, but it's also rare for a single team to be head and shoulders above everyone else. At the World Cup level, there usually are like 6-7 teams at the top that could all conceivably win.