OT: Should the Tigers have tried to get Choo for 7/130+?
I have been really hoping that the Tigers would use the savings on the Fielder deal to sign a big bat, with my preference being Choo. Today he signed with the Rangers for 7 years and $130M:
http://tracking.si.com/2013/12/21/shin-soo-choo-rangers-seven-year-130-million/?eref=sihp
I would much rather have the Tigers not signed Nathan and Davis in order to sign Choo (even if they had to go to 7/140), even if they end up re-signing Scherzer.
I can't think of too many extensions for pitchers that worked out. Even Tim Lincecum ended up justifying the Giants decisions to go year to year with him, despire possibly the best ever pre-arb career for a pitcher.
What do y'all think?
December 22nd, 2013 at 12:41 AM ^
No. Not worth the money (even though that doesn't really matter anymore). They can find a guy for nothing who can provide the same production.
December 22nd, 2013 at 12:49 AM ^
Only 3 guys had a higher OBP than he did last year. That is highly valued in the days of Sabermetrics.
December 22nd, 2013 at 7:32 AM ^
...that it is highly valued in this dawning era of sabermetrics. Shouldn't the act of getting on base always have been a top priority? Pat Caputo (LOLZ * infinity) was ranting yesterday about sabermetrics keeping Jack Morris out of the Hall. Um, no. ERA is one of the most basic and most widely recited pitcher stats of all-time, and Jack would have had the highest of any pitcher to ever enter into the Hall. That's what kept him out, not sabermetrics you jackwagon.
/rant
December 22nd, 2013 at 8:38 AM ^
Plus the whole point of sabermetrics - the Moneyball approach - was to look at players whose traditional stats looked about the same and find which ones were more likely to succeed. OBP was a starting point, of course; a .285 hitter with 100 walks is better than a .285 hitter with 50 walks. The whole Moneyball point was to sign the first guy for the same amount of money someone was paying the second guy.
Now you've got Choo making $18.5 million because of the extra walks. Hunter Pence is practically an identical player to Choo (seriously, their stats are so similar it's eerie) except Pence is that 50-walk guy and Choo is the 100-walk guy. Pence makes $5 million less. I'd much rather have Pence and another $5 million player than just Choo. The Rangers paid a $5 million premium for less than 1.5 walks per week.
December 22nd, 2013 at 11:18 AM ^
factor in the stadiums pence and choo played in. choo is way overpriced.
December 22nd, 2013 at 8:05 AM ^
No they most definitely can't. Not even close.
December 22nd, 2013 at 12:47 AM ^
I had Choo on my fantasy team, so I'm familiar with him. He doesn't hit lefties well, and his numbers had to be inflated by playing in the NL in Cincy. He's a good ballplayer, but not for $130M.
December 22nd, 2013 at 1:13 AM ^
a dirks/davis platoon will likely put up only slighlty less #s at a fraction of the cost. remember choo was playing in cincy; a hitters partk. and if they don't perform, DD will make a deal come july to improve the offense.
December 22nd, 2013 at 9:17 AM ^
December 22nd, 2013 at 12:59 AM ^
December 22nd, 2013 at 8:11 AM ^
Closers are highly overrated. There is a reason the Rangers didn't even offer Nathan arbitration and that the Phillies are trying to move Paplebon.
December 22nd, 2013 at 8:57 AM ^
December 22nd, 2013 at 9:20 AM ^
December 22nd, 2013 at 10:24 AM ^
Koji was great in Boston, terrible in Texas. SF as you stated easily replaced Wilson with Romo. TB basically changes closers every other year as does St.Louis. Cleveland juggled closers all year. When it comes time to pay Koji in Boston it won't be the Red Sox paying hime. The Pirates had two digarded players, Girilli and Melancon closing for them.
Closers are way overrated as is the saves stat. The very elite ones are valuable, but Nathan isn't one of those. He isn't Riveria and he certainly doesn't have anywhere near dominating stuff. Anyone who has paid attention to baseball over the last few years knows that.
December 22nd, 2013 at 11:23 AM ^
well, no one is. no one ever. and closers aren't overrated. they are rated. there are only a handful of closers that make $10M per year. there are several starters that make $15M+. that tells you right there that starters > closers. nathan is a great signing for the next two years. and the tigers didn't have to trade prospects for him.
December 22nd, 2013 at 1:49 PM ^
Seeing how starting pitchers throw about 3 times as many innings it stands to reason they would make more than a closer.
December 22nd, 2013 at 5:05 PM ^
v benoit at $7.5 mil---I'll take Nathan. Did you check out Nathan's #s, even at 40? Who else was out there--Johnson, Balfour (hurt), Papelbon (who the Phillies are begging to be gone)---or Rodney....I repeat, Rodney?
Choo is good--very good--but not at that price. I'm most skeptical of the Fister trade---I get why the Tigers did it, I'm just underwhelmed by the return. That said, you gotta put some trust in Dombrowski--he's earned it.
December 22nd, 2013 at 1:03 AM ^
The Tigers are obviously trying to slash payroll. I never thought Choo was coming here.
December 22nd, 2013 at 1:18 AM ^
No. Absolutely not. The Rangers have lit an awful lot of money on fire this offseason.
If the Tigers are slashing payroll as long as Mr. Ilitch is still alive, it's to clear room for contract extensions to Scherzer and Cabrera. That's going to make the checkbook cry for a little while.
December 22nd, 2013 at 1:40 AM ^
Illitch is alive but it's fair to wonder what type of condition he is in and if he has stepped back his involvement. He has not been seen publicly since the 2012 ALCS.
December 22nd, 2013 at 9:35 AM ^
December 22nd, 2013 at 1:22 AM ^
December 22nd, 2013 at 1:24 AM ^
7 years appears to be the starting point for any high-end position player on the free-agent market these days. Even so, I do agree that I would not give Choo a 7 year deal, and certainly not in the $18-20 mil range.
December 22nd, 2013 at 1:24 AM ^
They wanted a better bullpen, and better infield defense and to score runs more consistantly. They looked over the Fielder deal and his relationship with the entire team and decided to deal him not only due to the big contract but how he fit with the team. They move Miguel back to 1B where he can stay healthy, they protect him with Victor, they sign an elite closer in Nathan, they deal Fister to create room for Smyly in the rotation, and they create room for Castellanos at either 3B or OF as their best prospect. They already have a good CF (Jackson) and adding Choo makes little sense for them.
December 22nd, 2013 at 11:26 AM ^
that's the strategy. i still think they like a decent LH power bat. i'm guessing come july they will pursue one.
December 22nd, 2013 at 1:32 AM ^
December 22nd, 2013 at 1:33 AM ^
Texas got royally screwed on that deal.
Tigers want no part of the Boras machine on that one.
December 22nd, 2013 at 1:56 AM ^
No. Far too many years and $, he's a solid player but not somebody who earns around $20 million a year.
December 22nd, 2013 at 2:01 AM ^
Obviously these projections and the value/WAR are somewhat obscure measurements, but I still think 7/130 was far too much and I'm happy the Tigers passed. Would I have given him 5/80ish. Sure. But that's just me.
Source: Szymborski
December 22nd, 2013 at 4:38 AM ^
He would have easily been worth more than $20M in 3 of his last five years, and easily worth a lot less in the other two. Projection systems are notorious for ill-projecting players with that kind of a track record.
He'll be moving from a hitter's park in the easier league to a hitter's park (if not the launching pad it was in days of yore) in the harder league, but WAR is supposed to account for at least some of that.
Overall, I'd say there's a good chance that he'll be worth the money over the first four years of the deal.
-----
As to why I think the Tigers should have paid him (even if they didn't think they should have), it is simply this: The Tigers want a championship - nothing short of that. They don't really care about overpaying a guy as long as he's good. Money is a resource to get what you want, and in this case ownership wants a ring.
So look at how the Tigers can improve the team and hence the chances at a ring. They've shipped out Fielder for Kinsler, which weakens the offense considerably (his postseason performance aside) and boosts defense at an important position. Current sabermetric thinking has that as a slight downgrade because defense isn't as useful as offense, but individual variation will trump that (i.e. Kinsler tanking with the bat moving from Arlington to Detroit making it look worse, or gobbling up more grounders making it look better). They've replaced their #4 starter with the #5 starter and chained that back into losing a bullpen arm, but added 40 innings of hopefully top-notch closer work - except that Benoit was pretty good back there. That's also a net loss and not as likely to look good unless Porcello/Smyly step up their games. They've added a platoon OF who looks to shore up less than half a position, which is a minimal gain at best.
So while the Tigers' offseason moves have saved them enormous amounts of money, they've decreased the odds of a ring in 2014-2015. They might plow that savings into signing Scherzer and Cabrera, which might boost the odds of a ring later, but that's always a bad gamble. Scherzer could develop arm trouble - look at Harvey and Strasburg - or Cabrera could decide he wants to make more than a small island nation and opt for free agency instead of an extension. Heck, some promising chemist could discover a miracle drug and upend baseball's landscape again.
In short, I wanted Choo because whatever he cost, he would add wins to the Tigers in 2014-2015 and that's what I see as the window that needs maximizing.
December 22nd, 2013 at 8:58 PM ^
December 22nd, 2013 at 8:08 AM ^
His average WAR the last few years has been about the same as Josh Hamilton's and he will be making abotu 7 million less per year. Choo is also the type of player that will age well. His best skill is his ability to get on base.
December 22nd, 2013 at 11:32 AM ^
"choo is the type of player that will age well". what is that supposed to mean? just from his walks? well, tell me where youkalis is now?? he was a much better hitter than choo, yet he is still only 34.
December 22nd, 2013 at 5:09 PM ^
or Josh Hamilton for that matter.
Wonder how the Angels are enjoying there last 2 massive signings.
December 22nd, 2013 at 2:14 AM ^
Don't forget that 130 mil in Texas is not the same as 130 mil in Michigan, due to the lack of a state income tax in Texas. That couple percent turns into some serious dough. It's probably part of why he took 130 mil from Texas, and turned down 140 from New York (some of the highest taxes in the US).
December 22nd, 2013 at 2:41 AM ^
the Tigers didn't try to get him?
Price probably turned out to be too steep.
December 22nd, 2013 at 6:15 AM ^
Not worth the money and signing Choo gets in the way of Cabrera and Scherzer extensions.
December 22nd, 2013 at 8:07 AM ^
You might want to adjust your example of Lincecum. He signed a 2/$35M this winter, which is in line with what San Fran has been paying him recently. He isn't exactly being forced to take less money based on his most recent performance...
December 22nd, 2013 at 8:16 AM ^
Choo is a solid player, but if I'm Dombrowski, I want more than a "solid" player if I'm paying nearly $20M a year. I'd much rather have the money to spend on extending or at least re-signing Scherzer and Cabrera. Plus, a platoon of Dirks and Davis for $5.5M this season for both of them will likely carry more value for the money, than Choo at $18M+.
December 22nd, 2013 at 8:41 AM ^
here is my problem with this offseason for a team who wants to win a championship before mr I passes on isnt encouraging there fan base with whats going on this winter you trade fielder to save money and add kinsler who has never hit outside of texas sure you still have hunter, cabrera and martinez but then you have a platoon of dirks /davis and dirks hasnt hit in the last two years then you throw in strike out machine jackson, oh lets not forget i can barely hit above 200 avila and then a rookie at a key offensive position at third this offense may score oly 400 runs our pitchers cant throw shutouts every night and defense only goes so far to me the mves they made this year are a joke mr I has said every year that money is no issue so why does dombrowski think it is and try and relieve some there is no cap in baseball like there is in the other sports so utilize it when you can i do understand why no to choo thats to much for him but the the beltran contract was feesible and dont know why we didnt go that route right now on paper the royals are a better team than the tigers are and i doubt there will be a second wild card winner in the central this year so get ready for a disappointing season for a team who is supposedly all in, oh and what have we done to fix the bullpen other than add nathan and add a wild chamberlain nothing
December 22nd, 2013 at 9:11 AM ^
A) Punctuation. Dear God, please use punctuation.
B) Illitch never said money is no issue.
C) There's no cap - that's doesn't mean you get to just spend money without, you know, spending money. Plus, the luxury tax.
D) Adding Nathan is not "Nothing." Nathan has been a top 3ish closer in each of the past two seasons. He had 43 saves, 1.39 ERA, 0.9 WHIP, 10.12 K/9 last year.
December 22nd, 2013 at 10:41 AM ^
Your punctuation and coherency go hand in hand. As in there is none. First of all, the Tigers have spent money like it's water for the past few seasons and have no championships resulting from it. Secondly, it's apparent to anyone paying attention to what the Tigers have been going this offseason, that Ausmus is going to have a much different managerial process than Leyland did. The signing of Davis and trade for Kinsler leads me to believe that Ausmus is going to utilize both speed and using the spaciousness of Comerica Park to hit in the gaps, and not just solely relying on the longball to provide most of their scoring. Also, the signings of Nathan and Chamberlain lead me to believe that the Tigers realized that the bullpen was the weakness of their team last season. Nathan is a bona fide top tier closer, and while Chamberlain's stats from last year look bad at first glance, when you look closer, his ERA away from Yankee Stadium was only 3.54, while it was 6.23 at Yankee Stadium. He is definitely worth taking a chance on for only $2.5M for one year.
Will the Tigers be better or worse than last season? I don't know. But I think the pieces are in place for them to improve, while spending less. Oh, and I should point out that the Red Sox used that very same philosophy in winning the World Series last year. I say we should at least let the season get under way before we decide the Tigers are automatically going to be worse.
December 22nd, 2013 at 8:02 PM ^
December 22nd, 2013 at 9:20 AM ^
December 22nd, 2013 at 9:26 AM ^
ESPN has a piece (HERE) in which they argue that Choo's most logical fit probably was Texas, and for reasons that extend a little beyond the money, although obviously the money doesn't hurt by any means. Per this piece, Choo apparently prefers spring training in Arizona and enjoys the idea of playing in a city with a growing Korean population.
To expand on what someone mentioned above, Texas also has no state income tax and plays in several locations where visiting players are not taxed on their earnings. Most teams probably would have had to offer perhaps 10%-15% more at least to essentially match the Texas offer. The article gives the example of the Yankees, who would have needed to offer about $148 million over the same timeframe to account for the difference.
December 22nd, 2013 at 9:41 AM ^
December 22nd, 2013 at 9:49 AM ^
I don't see any reason Choo deserves that type of money, and at this point I'm not sure he'll be able to reproduce the numbers needed to justify it. Had he been available for, I don't know, $90M, that would be one thing. But $130+ is a big number for a guy like that.