OT -- Rick Porcello's career
Along with MGoBlog, I also typically read through Bless You Boys (a Tigers blog) on a daily basis. Recently, editor Kurt Mensching wrote his opinion on the way the Tigers are handling Rick Porcello.
For those of you who don't want to waste the time reading the whole article, he basically states that pitchers like Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Zach Greinke all had to spend substantial time in the minors before they were able to turn the corner in their major league careers. He says that the Tigers are basically ruining Porcello's chances of becoming the star pitcher that he has the potential to be by keeping him in the majors, and not giving him the time (and less pressure) he needs to work on his game in the minors.
However, if you send Porcello to the minors, you inevitably have to fill his spot in the rotation. And that's where the difficulty lies. Do you promote from the minors, and subsequently hurt the development of another prospect? Convert a middle reliever to a SP role, and create another gap to fill?
Personally, I think the Tigers should option him down to Toledo for the rest of the season and shouldn't bring him back to Detroit until June of next year. I think it's safe to say we're no longer playoff contenders, so there really seems to be no reason to keep him here. As far as filling his role, I'd say their best bet is to move Eddie Bonine or Brad Thomas into the rotation and get guys like Schlereth, Figaro, and other minor league relievers into a sort of rotation to fill in the bullpen. This would enable them to keep guys like Andy Oliver (who also looks to have good potential) in the minors, and give them the time they need to develop.
What are your thoughts?
August 12th, 2010 at 11:24 AM ^
Well Zach Greinke and Cliff Lee had some real down times before they broke out (can't speak on Halladay though) so maybe they weren't as good when they were youger as to grant a promotion to the bigs. Porcello has struggled this year, but it wasn't that long ago that Verlander also struggled in his 2nd year and let's hope Strasburg doesn't see this b/c he barely spent anytime in the minors.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:28 AM ^
Im pretty sure jv went 18-6 in his second year, I wouldnt call that struggling.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:34 AM ^
My bad, it was his 3rd year and he went 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:29 AM ^
Halladay spent two years in the majors before getting sent back down to the minors. I also think he has some surgical issues during that time that muddy the situation.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:35 AM ^
Yeah, Greinke had the same issues as Dontrelle there for a little bit. I remember him talking about quitting or something 2 years before he won the Cy Young award.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:43 AM ^
Greinke has Social Anxiety Disorder and severe depression. I don't think his getting sent to the minors had anything to do with his ability. He played in the minors because he completely left baseball for the majority of a season and had to work himself back. He doens't really apply to this discussion.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:48 AM ^
| SEASON | TEAM | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | W | L | SV | HLD | BLSV | WHIP | ERA |
| 2005 | KC | 33 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 183.0 | 233 | 125 | 118 | 23 | 53 | 114 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | -- | 1.56 | 5.80 |
Well his 2005 season wasn't very good, but I do aggree that it mostly had to do with him going crazy (2006 is when he lost it).
August 12th, 2010 at 11:34 AM ^
So are you saying that Porcello is just experiencing a sophomore slump, and we should expect him to improve next year?
I guess that's possible, but if you look at his stats from his rookie year (Kurt breaks them down in more detail) he really just got lucky last year. His BABIP was .281 (I want to say the league average is somewhere north of .300) and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, it translates similarly to ERA) was 4.77. Those are peripherals that would show a struggling pitcher, even though he had a good W/L record. This year, his BABIP is at .329 and his FIP is at 4.89, which is actually better than his ERA (5.91).
Either way, I would disagree that he's just going through a sophomore slump and that he'll be better next year. I don't think that will happen unless he gets time in the minors to improve his pitches.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:24 AM ^
He needs more time down there. Look at Bondo, you could say the same mistake was made with him.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:30 AM ^
Can you really? I think the injuries derailed his career more than anything. You could argue that the increase in innings as a result of being with the big team could have led to those injuries.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:37 AM ^
I guess my point was that they rushed him into the rotation as the hot new attraction before he knew how to pitch and like you said increased his innings substantially from what he was used to. I don't think he ever learned how to conserve pitches and I don't think its unreasonable to think that had some part in his injury issues.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:25 PM ^
Bondo blew hitters away because he had a 95+ mph fastball and one of the best sliders in the AL. Why do you think he got the big contract? He was one of the best AL pitching prospects. Injuries now have dropped that fastball down to 90ish, making his slider less effective. Losing velocity kills pitchers like Bondo. He will never be effective again unless he now develops another quality pitch (ie. change-up).
Same goes for Willis. He was awesome with his mid 90s fastball. Without it, he's nothing.
August 12th, 2010 at 1:50 PM ^
One could also argue, though, that since Bonderman was rushed to the majors so quickly he never had the opportunity to craft and develop a reliable third pitch that he could have had he stayed in the minors longer
August 12th, 2010 at 11:37 AM ^
I also think another problem with Bonderman was being the only good pitcher on one of the worst teams in Baseball there for his first few years.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:53 PM ^
Bondo's career was never really on the rails to begin with, he was always that guy with tons of potential who never really broke through. Perhaps, if he had at least been allowed to stick in the minors through AA he could have had time to develop a secondary pitch or two to go along with the slider and fastball. With that, he definitely could have been a more effective starter and even staved off injury by not using the fastball as much.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:28 AM ^
Porcello isn't succeeding because he can't miss bats and he's been vaguely unlucky in terms of hit rates. Of course, if he's not deceptive enough to strike people out, it's possible that he's not deceptive enough to not get hit like batting pratice.
Regardless, I don't think there is a blanket rule for "spending time in the minors" equaling success. Greinke went to the minors because he literally went crazy. That's why he was unsuccessful. Lee had been a successful major league pitcher before he suddenly stopped being one, and got sent down. Guys like Felix Hernandez, David Price, Tim Lincecum, John Papelbon seem to be be pretty good without significant time in the minors.
In the end - I think he's right. Porcello isn't ready, so he should go to the minors, but I don't think that this is a "general rule" that can be applied to any pitcher.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:33 AM ^
This is pretty much spot on although I'd say the "vaguely unlucky" hit rate is bound to look a little high because of the aforementioned inability to miss bats. I definitely would send him down for a while.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:38 AM ^
I'd agree that spending time in the minors shouldn't be used as a general to fix a pitcher. That's why I think you need to look at his stats. High BABIP/ERA/FIP combined with a low K/9 ratio indicate someone who's lacking in command and a good strikeout pitch. That's when I think spending time in the minors is the correct prescription. It gives him the time to improve his sinker, improve command of his fastball, and develop his curveball into a legitimate strikeout pitch while facing lesser competition with less stress.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:30 PM ^
isn't the best pitching coach in the organization at the major league level? so shouldn't that guy be the best teacher? obviously, i don't advocate throwing guys out there at the major league level, but i would like porcello to stick for now, since he has far better stuff than the other options.
but i agree with chitown. there are no good general rules when dealing with individuals. there's been a lot of successful pitchers who have been "rushed" and a lot of failures. taking different paths may or may not make any difference. it's all conjecture.
August 12th, 2010 at 10:28 PM ^
In theory, wouldn't the pitching coach in the minors be different than the pitching coach in the majors?
I would assume that the Tiger's pitching coach would be one that is good at managing egos and personalities where as the Mud Hens coach would actually have the technical coaching ability to work with a pitchers "game" and mold him into a "seasoned" prospect.
Just a thought.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:38 AM ^
0 pitches thrown in the minors, and having major league success. Now, I agree that Porcello needs to go back to Toledo for the rest of the year. This season is a wash. Now only if Donbrowski would go and get Crawford this winter...Crawford, Jackosn and Boesch in our outfield sounds nice to me.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:44 AM ^
I'd be surprised if he keeps up his success. Believe me, I'd love to see him succeed. I grew up in Cincinnati (family moved there from Detroit), so I love to see the Reds do well. But keep in mind the Reds are #1 in the NL in runs scored. It's a lot easier to win games when your offense bales you out, and it's also a lot easier to overlook glaring weaknesses when you're winning games.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:51 AM ^
It would be really nice if we can finally have more than one legitimate threat to steal and an accomplished one at that.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:57 AM ^
I like the fact that Crawford also gives us an everyday LF when there hasnt been one in Detroit since Craig Monroe in 2006, but yeah, the speed element is huge for me too.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:49 AM ^
I'll be honest, I haven't been able to follow the Tigers as much this summer as I normally do because of grad school but hasn't Porcello done much better since his call-up a few months ago? His sinker (from what I have seen) has been working again. Someone mentioned that he is struggling because of he can't miss bats, but he is not a strikeout pitcher really. He produces ground-balls. I understand the point that the minors allows pitchers to work on developing pitches and gaining confidence, but I think something has to be said for facing the best players in baseball every night and learning from the best pitchers who are your teammates.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:13 PM ^
Since the All Star Break, here are Porcello's stats (in 5 starts):
- @CLE, TOR, @TB, CHW, LAA
- 1-4 record
- 3 QS
- 31.2 IP
- 17 ERs
- 4.83 ERA
- 1.26 WHIP
- 19 Ks
- 52:53 GB:FB
- 4 HRs
- 8 BBI
- 32 H
So he hasn't been stellar. And while I understand your point about being around the best and facing the best, I think he just needs more time against lesser competition to help him become dominant. Sure he's not going to strike out 9 or 10 in a game like JV, but groundball pitchers need to have good location. Pitching to contact is dangerous.
Edit: Stats from ESPN
August 12th, 2010 at 11:55 AM ^
The broader problem is the Tigers only scout for one kind of pitcher: tall fireballers. Dombrowski admits this.
So what's the problem?
In a given series, opponents are treated to only a slight variation of the same pitcher. Verlander gives way to Scherzer gives way to Porcello, and you have more of the same in the bullpen with Perry and Zumaya.
This limits their otherwise effective talents. Porcello is often facing hitters that have already adjusted to his speed. And a player that age hasn't yet mastered "the art of pitching", as Jim Price says.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:20 PM ^
Scouting for only tall, hard throwing pitchers isn't really a problem as those are clearly the most desirable type of pitchers to have. The key is to be willing to trade a few members of that group to get greater diversity of pitching styles, which should be achievable.
But I agree that having only one style of pitcher for an opposing team to see for a three or four game set is a negative.
August 12th, 2010 at 1:58 PM ^
The key is to be willing to trade a few members of that group to get greater diversity of pitching styles
So far, I haven't seen Dombrowski do this. Instead, he's trading one hard-thrower (Edwin Jackson) for another (Scherzer).
And it shouldn't be a secret to him. Kenny Rogers flourished when surrounded by JV and Bondo.
August 12th, 2010 at 2:08 PM ^
Eh, I don't buy that argument. I don't think you can prove Rogers flourished because of Verlander and Bonderman. While I don't disagree that it wouldn't hurt to have a a crafty lefty in the rotation (a la Ted Lilly), I don't think going after guys like Scherzer is bad. As long as Scherzer keeps pitching the way he has been, we've got two very solid starters. I'm more concerned about the lack of a serviceable lefty at all. I don't care how hard he throws, I don't think a rotation can really excel without a good lefty.
That's why it would have been so nice to trade for Cliff Lee (who cares if that was wishful thinking).
August 12th, 2010 at 8:03 PM ^
I don't think you can prove Rogers flourished because of Verlander and Bonderman.
Okay - how about Rogers and Zumaya?
In a single game opposing batters were going from a lefy finesse pitcher to a hard-throwing righty. Was there a better 1-2 punch in '06?
My point is: what good does it do now to have a guy like Zumaya or Perry pitch in relief of JV, Scherzer or Porcello? No change of pace there.
August 12th, 2010 at 2:56 PM ^
I think the logic is that you can teach a guy to throw off-speed in the majors as he matures, but it is almost impossible to get a guy who throws 91 to throw 95. You can always slow a guy down when necessary, but sometimes you just need a 96 MPH heater on 3-2.
I will agree, though, that not everydoy needs to throw at 95P, and it has been troubling at times when it seems the pitchers try to throw past a guy rather than throw a sinker or change-up that can induce a double play and get them out of an inning.
I think DD and the Tigers will address the pitching issues this offseason, and I hope that Porcello and some of the younger guys stay down in the minors longer than the trend has been.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:16 PM ^
look at the core of their rotation: Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. They all took their lumps as youngsters and developed on the major league roster.
i've never bought into the losing confidence argument.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:26 PM ^
I guess I can't completely refute that intelligently, since I don't really know what their stats were like starting out, but the thing that comes to mind intially is the difference in hitting between the NL and AL. I think it goes without saying that it's easier to pitch in the NL than in the AL, so the circumstances surrounding their development were different.
Also, who were the other pitchers on the Braves' roster when they came in?
Furthermore, how can you say you don't buy into the confidence argument? Confidence is a huge part of being a successful pitcher. If you don't believe that your stuff is good enough to win every time you go out, you're not going to be successful. You've got to trust your stuff. And if you're stuff is consistently being crushed, then how can you trust it?
August 12th, 2010 at 12:41 PM ^
let me expand. i don't by the excuse that so-and-so was brought up to the show too early, got shelled, which destroyed his confidence and career. as if spending more time in the minors would save his career. if a young guy gets torched, it's up to the coaches to build him up. i think that philosophy goes for most every sport. you need balance. RR has to deal with this with Tate and Denard.
confidence, in general, is important in sports (and life) no doubt.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:43 PM ^
IF you seriously think Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz wouldn't have succeeded in the primes of their careers in the AL you're crazy. And remember that Smoltz came up in the Tigers orginization before being traded(a fact I'm fond to remind my Tigers friends of from time to time)
August 12th, 2010 at 12:52 PM ^
I've got nothing against those three, they were tremendous pitchers, and I'm not saying they wouldn't have succeeded against AL hitters, but I think it was in their favor to start off their big league careers in the NL. Either way, they're all examples of pitchers who stuck it out in the bigs and succeeded. I don't think you can apply their success to Porcello's situation, though. I think he's a good example of someone who could waste away into mediocrity in the majors, or go to the minors and have a better shot of coming back and doing well in the Show.
And minor point, but did Smoltz actually play for the Tigers? I thought he got traded as a minor leaguer.
August 12th, 2010 at 5:19 PM ^
Avery (a Canton or Plymouth kid who graduated high school in 1989 or 1990) was the fourth starter at the beginning of the Braves dominant run. Hard throwing lefty that didn't spend too much time (if any) in the minors. He was on the team that lost to the Twins and Jack Morris in 1991. I seem to recall that some people thought that he had the highest ceiling of the four given his velocity and left handedness.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:43 PM ^
When I read that article at BYB, i agreed with it wholeheartedly. Comparing him to Halladay and Grienke are unfair, but the reasons he needs to go down is to turn him into an elite pitcher instead of a serviceable pitcher like Bonderman.
He nees a 3rd pitch, he doesnt have an off speed pitch, just like Bonderman. Yes, Bonderman had an electric arm and when he had command of both his fastball and sldier he was/is very good. However i've watched too many games where he doesn't have a good fastball or his his slider and hitters just look for the other. I fear the same problems with Porcello.
Grienke isn't a fair comparison because he had 4 polished pitches before his depression problems took over.
The other issue with Tigers pitchers is that they give them MLB contracts to pay for the talent. It means they have to rush their pitchers to get value on them. Their team control clocks are ticking in the minors, so as soon as they are useful they are rushed. It's a double edged sword, because it allows the Tigers to draft better talant then they should.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:50 PM ^
i just don't understand why every pitcher doesn't develop a change-up in the minors. that's always boggled my mind. i remember a reliever named gene garber (ya, i go back a ways). that's all he had was a change-up. several of them.
a modern day example is trevor hoffman. he lost his fastball years ago but was still effective using his change up.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:51 PM ^
HR/9
2009: 1.2
2010: 1.1
BB/9
2009: 2.7
2010: 2.6
K/9
2009: 4.7
2010: 4.6
He got lucky last year and is getting unlucky this year. He performed equally well both years. That's all there is to it.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:54 PM ^
No offense, but what's your point? And those are three stats that don't give you the overall view of his performance. As I pointed out earlier, his BABIP is way up from last year, and his ERA and FIP have risen as result.
August 12th, 2010 at 1:03 PM ^
Exactly. His BABIP is way up. BABIP isn't something that a pitcher has much control over. The fact that his ERA is up despite his peripherals staying the same suggests that he is the victim of bad luck.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:52 PM ^
Rick needs to learn a change-up as a third pitch to fulfill his potential, This is not a secret to anyone. I think, however, that we must remenber that the kid is just 21, during the offseason his body made changes as he gained a significant amount of weight, and grew an inch I believe. With the change in body size/muscle gain, a change in mechanics is bound to happen, so I think we saw this year Rick leaving the ball up due to his new body trying to perform his old mechanics, and he still is in the process of trying to figure it out. I guess I'm saying that cool heads need to prevail here, and let the 21 year old pitcher (younger than Strasburg) grow into his body, and do it at the level the organization thinks is best. They may end up getting it wrong, but they sure as hell know better than we do.
August 12th, 2010 at 1:03 PM ^
Baseball is a tricky game. First off, the Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Zack Greinke situations are not comparable to Rick Porcello's. Baseballis such an individual sport, every situation is unique. I think it is hard to compare between different players. I personally think that Porcello is mentally tough enough to get through his problems in the majors, but he could also handle being demoted. The team wants to win right now, which is why he will remain in the majors next year. He's our third best starter at this point. So unless they get some other quality starters in free agency, Rick Porcello will be in Detroit at the start of next year.
August 12th, 2010 at 2:03 PM ^
the big boys will eventually help him.
August 12th, 2010 at 5:43 PM ^
This isn't DD or Leyland's first rodeo. I think they are monitoring the situation very carefully. At this point there certainly is no pressure to use Porcello in the Majors.
Going forward I don't see any need to have Porcello on the opening day roster next season, if he isn't ready. Porcello had a very very good rookie year and you can make the case that he was our best starter down the stretch. I think it was only natural that the Tigers gave him multiple chances this season to find the form he had as a rook. Porcello hasn't found the form, I think Porcello is going to have to earn his stripes next season.
I find the articles conclusions hastier than the Tigers use of Porcello