OT: Recruiting stars for the Super Bowl starters
In the spirit of recruiting season, this is a look at how the Panthers' and Broncos' starting lineups were rated as high school recruits. It provides some interesting flashbacks if you've been following recruiting for a while...
January 28th, 2016 at 2:26 PM ^
Not directly related to OP but in advance of the "OH MY GOSH LOOK AT ALL THE 2/3 stars playing for Super Bowl teams" that will be heard in the coming 10 days..."
For context there are 127 FBS programs.
Assume each has 24 recruits in every class.
That = 3048 recruits
This excludes any player who makes to the NFL from FCS or lower divisions
Out of 3048 recruits a year, ~35 annually are 5 stars. Or 1.15%
Out of 3048 recruits a year ~300 are 4 stars. Or 9.84%
Ergo out of 3048 recruits a year ~ 2713 are 3 stars or lower. Or 89.01%
So when peeps say ERMAGOD look at all the 3 stars on the super bowl rosters, a sanguine reply is to say ERMAGOD look at all those 3 stars in the starting lineup for Bama.
January 28th, 2016 at 2:32 PM ^
/thread
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January 28th, 2016 at 2:38 PM ^
Wait, I'm confused. Where is the thread supposed to end?
January 28th, 2016 at 2:33 PM ^
Right. I almost think it's crazy how many five-stars are suiting up for both teams, considering what a tiny portion of the recruiting population they are.
January 28th, 2016 at 2:53 PM ^
Yeah, the odds of a 5-star being drafted are somewhere above 50%. 2 and 3 stars are nowhere near as likely to be drafted, but there's so many more of them that it's just a numbers game
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January 28th, 2016 at 2:34 PM ^
Yet, some people will never still never understand math and probability.
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January 28th, 2016 at 2:56 PM ^
Data driven logic/assumptions are not taught in journalism school. Regardless, thanks for doing the work for the rest of us!
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January 28th, 2016 at 2:57 PM ^
That rather puts it in nice perspective. Well done.
It also makes you appreciate how unusual Michigan's situation probably is (along with select other schools, of course) when it comes to the distribution of recruiting ratings even on the incoming end of things.
Using Rivals data, there have been nearly 300 recruits (before some attrition, I would wager) that officially committed to Michigan - as in, made it all the way to NSD - from 2002 to 2015. Of those, about 48% have ratings of 3 stars or 2 stars. Contrast that with Iowa over the same period, where that runs closer to 90%.
It's not quite what you're talking about here, but these things are interesting to consider.
January 28th, 2016 at 3:19 PM ^
Should probably note that the NFL draft is ~256 players each year so in theory all should be 4 stars or greater. If we need math and numbers 256 < 300, so 100% of players drafted each year could have been 4 star recruits or higher.
I get what you are saying in your post but how many of those 90% of players who are 3 stars or lower and going to like Rutgers end up going pro? Those numbers are kinda misleading because it assumes all college players have the same probability of going pro. To me it is still surprising to see how innaccurate these recruiting rankings are by how many pro players are < 4 stars.
January 28th, 2016 at 3:27 PM ^
Huah???
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January 28th, 2016 at 3:52 PM ^
That's a great theory, but that's not how anything works.
I had a friend in middle school who said that he was better than an MLB player because he was hitting .430 against middle school competition. So if he could hit .430 against his competition, then he would be able to hit .430 against 25-year-olds when he turned 25. That kid went to college, didn't play sports, and is a gym teacher now.
Things change as you get older. Some people work harder. Some people get involved with drugs or get full of themselves. Some people tear their ACL two times. Some people get concussions. Some people go places where they're behind other 5- and 4-star players, and they never get a chance to shine. Some 3- and 2-stars get a chance to blossom at schools that don't get any 5- and 4-stars.
If everything turned out as it should be, Brien Taylor would be the greatest pitcher in the Major Leagues and Lenny Cook would be going toe-to-toe with Lebron James and Steph Curry in the NBA right now. News flash: predicting the future is impossible.
January 28th, 2016 at 2:32 PM ^
/thread
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January 28th, 2016 at 4:06 PM ^
\ thread
January 28th, 2016 at 2:44 PM ^
Mike Hart was a 3-star.
I feel like that's relevant somehow.
January 28th, 2016 at 2:58 PM ^
B. Graham was a 6 star. Isn't that right Magnus?
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January 28th, 2016 at 3:01 PM ^
If you take the number of stars at the Oscars and multiply it by the amount of stars in the Andromeda galaxy, you get Brandon Graham's rating.
January 28th, 2016 at 3:09 PM ^
Niceeeee. I do miss him he was an absolute terror. I wish he could have been on this years team.
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January 28th, 2016 at 2:52 PM ^
My take is if you want to play in a Super Bowl, Costal Carolina > everybody else (except OSU, with 4).
January 28th, 2016 at 3:12 PM ^
How does this compare to star ratings for the non-Super Bowl teams? Do the Panthers/Broncos have a higher % of 5 star starters than the Browns/Lions? That's what I'd be interested in.
January 28th, 2016 at 3:46 PM ^
There's a lot of 3 stars that end up not doing anything. The press only writes about the walkon who makes it to the nfl because nobody wants to hear about the walkon who never saw the field.
January 28th, 2016 at 4:09 PM ^
I have never heard that story of Demarcus Ware and Osi Umenyiora before. It is amazing that two future studs like that just fall into the lap of a school like Troy.In hindsight, you can see that Troy should have been stoked to have the opportunity,but they almost blew it themselves by having to be talked in to taking Ware.
Just shows how unpredictable the world of recruiting can be sometimes. Obviously the statistics show that if you take a ton of highly ranked guys, the talent level you have on your team will be better off, but stories like this just show the randomness that can occur.
January 29th, 2016 at 2:52 AM ^
GO BRONCOS!!
Could give a fuck about high school ratings stars.
How many stars did Brady have? How about Terry Bradshaw? What about CJ Anderson or Michael Schofield?
January 29th, 2016 at 7:46 AM ^
Michael Schofield had 4 stars. C.J. Anderson had 3 stars.