OT: NFL Fans/49ers Fans - What are the Issues with the 49ers Offense?

Submitted by alum96 on

I am a NFL fan but not to the degree I know every team's inner workings - mostly the Lions and NFC North teams; everyone else I have the "casual knowledge" most NFL fans would - know the coach, the star players, etc but not really in tune with the team like a hometown fan.

So I would be curious if the MGoSanFran contingent could explain what is going on with the 49ers offense?  The defense as best as I can tell from all the stats I look up remains excellent but thats a Vic Fangio thing.  From my superficial readings via the google machine here are some questions/comments some of you folks who follow the team daily could possible weigh in on:

  • It appears Colin Kaepernick has regressed this year after signing a massive contract.  Some are speculating what was once a dual threat QB and has now been hampered by the franchise not wanting to see its investment get drilled constantly by running.  So he is a running QB who no rarely is unleashed for runs (that sounds eerily familiar)  Is that accurate?  Is that anything close to accurate or what is the local word on why they believe the QB has fallen back this much? Especially with a QB whisperer as HC.
  • Greg Roman was once considered a rising star.  Now he is at the point the GM's daughter is calling him out publicly on twitter and large portions of the fanbase are distraught over him.  I didnt know much about him so just looked him up and he was an NFL "offensive line assistant" (not offensive line coach) for 8 years of his career, before going to HS coaching for a year (2008), and then landing with the Jim as "one of his OCs" at Stanford for Harbaugh for 2 years.  Curiously Shaw seemed to be the OC on Wikipedia page for Stanford's teams but Roman's wikipedia page lists him as an OC for Stanford for 2 of those 4 years that Shaw is?  I found that strange.   But anyhow what is going on, on the Greg Roman front?  It looks like they once ran a relatively sophisticated passing offense to marry with their Harbaugh run focus, but for some reason trimmed down the playbook to simplify (again sounds eerily familiar) and are getting hurt on that end.  I saw a Chris Simms quote that its one of the most unsophisticated offenses on film this year with very few wrinkles like it had in the past.   Why did they decide to go away fro the old playbook?  Or is Roman just a hostage to Kaepernick slumping?
  • Are their significant injuries to the offense?  Did they lose some key OL guys to free agency?  Or is this a case of you live and die with your QB and this year they are dying along with having Roman issues?

I focus on the offense because (a) this is Harbaugh's bread and butter and (b) it seems to be the crux of San Fran's problems this year.

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alum96

December 8th, 2014 at 12:41 PM ^

  • 2012 - 62.4% completion rate. 8.3 ypa  10 TD/3 INT QBR 72.2 as he emerged
  • 2013 - 58.4% completion rate. 7.7 ypa  21 TD/8 INT QBR 68.6
  • 2014 - 60.6% completion rate. 7.1 ypa  16 TD/10 INT QBR 52.2

Don't think he is "terrible" - he was efficient and solid for his first 2 years.  QBR has dropped big time this year.  Matt Stafford in 2013 had  QBR of 52.6 with a lower completion rate.  This year his QBR is 59.1 with a completion rate of 61.5% 7.4 ypa both years.  18 TD/10 INT this year for Stafford.  Very comparable.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82422

Bill the Butcher

December 8th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^

I agree that he isn't "terrible", but he is more one-dimensional than everyone, including the front office in SF thought when they decided to move forward with him and move Alex Smith.  

I guess one-dimensional is the wrong way to describe him.  It's more that his passing isn't as good as it first appeared.  Much like RGIII in Washington, the threat of the zone read and the other things he was doing running the football early on caught teams off guard, and allowed for easier decisions in the passing game.  Now that there is tape on him, NFL defenses have caught up and have forced him to make more plays as a traditional dropback passer.  Which isn't his strong suit.  I believe that is the reason for the apparent regression.  I don't think he has actually gotten worse, I just think the defenses have caught up after getting tape of him.

SF other struggles come up front on their OLine which isn't nearly as good as it was 2 years ago.  Frank Gore is aging and that run game has been putrid for the past several weeks.  Which obviously hurts a struggling QB.  And then there is the defense.  Which hasn't been a major problem as they are only allowing 16.5 PPG in the last 4 but has taken a slight step back and they have lost 2 of the 5 best linebackers in football in my opinion with Navorro Bowmen and Patrick Willis being on injured reserve.  

 

 

Joined: 09/23/2012

MGoPoints: 2908

Tater

December 8th, 2014 at 12:37 PM ^

The office is meddling and micromanaging the coaching staff.  Does that sound familiar?  If Jim Harbaugh lands at Michigan, he will demand more power and not take kindly to meddling.   I have a feeling the lesson has been learned via David Brandon.

Joined: 08/13/2008

MGoPoints: 30584

Smidgens

December 8th, 2014 at 12:39 PM ^

Where to start?

Kap has either regressed or has been over-coached. He almost never takes off on broken plays and instead gets sacked or throws a pick.

Our O-line also doesn't seem to be gelling, Jonathan Martin has been ineffective.

I really want us to draft a *fast* WR in the draft, having guys like Boldin and Crabtree who can push defenders away is nice but we have no real burners on the squad. Ellington is good but we need more.

And we've had numerous injuries on defense.

Joined: 05/16/2013

MGoPoints: 999

alum96

December 8th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^

Yes I was struck reading up on the QB how it sounded like Devin Gardner in 2014.  Your sentence about him could be a Devin Gardner quote.  

Your quote about the lack of speed at WR also sounds like UM 2014.  And your quote about the OL... well, it sounds like they have the Michigan offense running over there. 

Defense has been great considering the injuries.  On Football Outsider they are #2 behind Detroit's.  Vic Fangio is a beast.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82422

treetown

December 8th, 2014 at 12:40 PM ^

Colin Kapernick's running and his speed caught a lot of people off guard the first few years, but now they are familiar and he hasn't improved in the other aspects of being a QB. Compare him with Russell Wilson - who also can take off and run. He does so selectively and mostly to take advantage of when teams play man coverage and everyone is watching their man and not the QB. BUT he is arguably better as a throwing QB than he was his first few years.

The first few years, the 49ers also had a good power running game, and had some playmaker receivers. A power running game and some great wideouts and TE can make (hide the ills) every NFL QB look good.

Joined: 11/10/2010

MGoPoints: 6339

quigley.blue

December 8th, 2014 at 12:41 PM ^

Alex Smith is like that Chicago Cubs goat thing, als othat guy who caught the foul ball...  Also the niners have a bad QB this year who was un-bad last year.  Also, Vernon Davis keeps dropping the f-ing ball.

Joined: 03/01/2010

MGoPoints: 5392

TheLastHarbaugh

December 8th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^

The 49ers offensive line isn't very good. Frank Gore is old, and isn't able to carry the workload like he once was. Carlos Hyde was supposed to take some of the pressure off of him but hasn't been very good. Vernon Davis has gone completely in the tank. Their receiving corps as a whole has also had some problems with drops (IIRC, they're ranked 1st in the NFL in drop%).

All of these things have combined to expose Colin Kaepernick a little bit. He's not the poised to be a superstar QB that everyone thought he was when he led them to the Super Bowl a couple years ago.

His accuracy can be pretty poor at times, and because the runningbacks haven't been that great it has allowed teams to key in on him more as a runner, making him far less effective. The read-option hasn't really been there for SF as a result, whereas it's been killer for them in the past. San Fran has had one of the best rushing offenses in the league the last few years, which sets up the rest of their attack. This year they're something like 15th.

Kaep still needs a strong  supporting cast around him, and isn't on the level of the elite QBs in the league who can win games by themselves. He's just not that strong of a passer, with his accuracy issues and trouble reading defenses.

They've had to rely on him more this year to make plays by himself and he's just not capable yet.

 

Joined: 08/06/2008

MGoPoints: 10710

TheLastHarbaugh

December 8th, 2014 at 12:59 PM ^

It's hard to have an opinion on Roman because all of his success has come alongside Jim. The toxic environment in the 49ers organization right now makes it difficult to really get a read on anything. I mean, it's hard to do your job as an OC when you've got the GM's teenage daughter tweeting, "Greg Roman can take a hike...the 49ers don't want you no more." He has Jim's full confidence though.

Joined: 08/06/2008

MGoPoints: 10710

nelladahc

December 8th, 2014 at 12:50 PM ^

Kapernick isn't as good now that the polish has worn off.  He has a rocket for an arm but accuracy is a big issue.  Boldin is the only receiver that can correct accuracy issues.  The others not make the catch if the ball isn't thrown perfectly (most of the time).  Life long Niner fan here and when Harbaugh went with Kap I didn't have much faith in it.  Freak of an athlete doesn't make you a good QB!

Joined: 02/11/2011

MGoPoints: 21

Brewers Yost

December 8th, 2014 at 12:56 PM ^

The running game has really dropped off. The Oline has had some injuries but is playing worse than it probably should. Frank Gore is another year older and Carlos Hyde hasn't shown much.

Kaeperneck has not progressed. With the running game not there his job is more difficult. Honestly, he only looks good when he is scrambling around and can run or find someone downfield. If things don't break down and he is forced to read a defense he looks terrible.

Joined: 07/14/2008

MGoPoints: 2365

schreibee

December 8th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^

49ers LT Staley, LG Iupati both injured in playoffs last year, have yet to get back up to speed this year, in Iupati's case had trouble even staying on the field. RT Davis has also missed most of '14, RG Boone held put entire pre-season, 3rd C injured vs Oakland. So...no cohesiveness there. Kap doesn't look like he trusts the OL as a result, nor in all honesty does it appear he spends adequate time on film study. He's no Manning/Brady at the line, dissecting defenses mentally pre-snap. As has been pointed out, Gore has slowed, WR are slow, which OL problems exacerbate. Kap also appears to have been directed to stay in the pocket longer rather than take off, which would be good for his long-term development if not again for the OL issues. Finally, there's no way around this- Harbaugh looks checked out. As his team flailed weakly (defense too) against the frickin Raidaz yesterday he looked more sad than angry; when he'd try to talk to guys leaving the field they kinda blew him off. It's SO OVER in SF, but will the stubborn bastard do what's best for everyone and return to college, or give the pros another try elsewhere? Following a blowout loss in Seattle next weekend it should become more apparent: if they can him he's coming to Michigan, if they keep him thru the season they think they can trade him to another nfl team.

Joined: 11/02/2009

MGoPoints: 21131

Michigan4Life

December 8th, 2014 at 1:08 PM ^

is Greg Roman. I'm not a big fan of his play calling and he has a tendency to have a lot of delay of game.

Problem #2 is Kaepernick. He's a one read QB and struggles to do progression reads. Physical talent is there with his speed and arm. 

Problem #3 is there is no deep threat at WR to take the top off of the defense.  Most of them are more of a short to intermediate WRs.  

Problem #4 is the OL. They were once the best but has regressed a bit.  Losing Boone for an extended period of time at the beginning of the season hurts the continuity of the OL. 

Joined: 07/29/2010

MGoPoints: 25233

mgob-rad

December 8th, 2014 at 1:26 PM ^

I think that when multiple players on an NFL team start regressing, your first and foremost need to look at the offensive line. I'm not sure if the 49ers lost certain players on the line to injury or free angency or if they just aren't playing that well, but the 49er's offensive line has been horrid. The fact that the line has been so bad has caused the run game for the 49ers go from its once dominant form to basically nonexistant, putting way more pressure on Kaepernick to make throws. Kaepernick has never been a true pocket quarterback, and when he is forced to be it shows like it has this season. It's funny, my Dad said from the beginning that when Harbaugh went with Kaepernick over Alex Smith it would be the 49ers downfall, and it seems as if he was right. It also seems to be the decision that may have landed Harbaugh back in Ann Arbor...

Joined: 09/18/2014

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Jason80

December 8th, 2014 at 1:26 PM ^

Kap has been hit a lot in the pocket. That is due to bad oline play and coveragr sacks because receivers don't get open. Crabtree gets the majority of his catches within 5 yds of the LOS as he has no ability to stretch the defense and rarely does anything when he has the ball. The running backs don't get to the second level so defense aren't over committing to stop the run, then safeties are available to provide over the top coverage on the speed guys (Johnson and Davis). As a Niners fan I'm not surprised as I believe the window had closed after last season for this group. The offense got a year older and not better and the defense with with key linebackers missing most of the season has been in survival mode and unable to dominate the game and allow an undynamic offense to do just enough to win like in prior years. Jed York's super bowl mandate this year was a bridge too far because the 2014 Niners never had the team to play to that level. My biggest fear with them is they resign Crabtree to a big contract. He was always a system guy that fooled people with his frame and numbers in college where the system resulted in him being open and he never had to learn techniques or ball skill.

Joined: 10/05/2014

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UofM626

December 8th, 2014 at 1:39 PM ^

The offense is regressing cause of Kap. This team has lots of injuries this year on offense, and the OLine is struggling because GORE won't hit the holes hard alla Fitz! I personally think Harbaugh wants to let Kap loose but the organization does not. But the main issue is Jim and the GM. Jim wants things his way and the GM wants to do things different.

Side note / I think JH tactics will work in college but w millionaires and billionaires it's running thin. As Jim is not always the smartest guy in the room in the NFL. Just my opinion

Joined: 01/02/2012

MGoPoints: 3443

Sllepy81

December 8th, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^

to Colin. As dual threat Qbs age they are less of a threat and are exposed. If you draft a dual threat guy play him early then cut him loose because some are only as good as their legs and ridk taking abilities. We are a great example of this, we've ran Devin less and less and that forced him to throw more, we wanted a pocket QB this year. Colin is being more protective of his body, you cant win as an average passer only.

Joined: 01/02/2013

MGoPoints: 7976

LandryHD

December 8th, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^

I'm a 49ers fan. Nobody has liked Greg Roman as far as fans go. He has way to much talent on the O and doesn't know how to utilize it. We go after speed WRs (Manningham, Stevie Johnson)  to help spread the field and we don't utilize them properly. We have a QB that can run the ball and the 49ers hardly have design runs for him since the year we went to the Super Bowl. Our OLine really hasn't help this year with all the injuries we have had. We haven't had the same starting line for consecutive games this year which will always hurt the oline.

Greg Roman= Al Borges

Joined: 07/04/2008

MGoPoints: 5372

Tuco

December 8th, 2014 at 2:57 PM ^

The 49ers are built to be a run first team and are calling plays like a pass first team. They abandon the run way to early in games. Gore avg. 5.2 a carry against the Raiders but only carried 12 times.

Joined: 08/25/2009

MGoPoints: 108

JeepinBen

December 8th, 2014 at 3:13 PM ^

Bill Barnwell tackled this today. Big reason is the OL.

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/week-14-nfl-49ers-raiders-browns-chie…

Many of San Francisco’s problems have not been obvious; they’ve stretched across places like the offensive line and special teams, where easy narratives fear to tread. Instead, the criticisms have come in for Kaepernick, Harbaugh, and their shared connection. Some have suggested that the read-option is a problem, that people have figured out all the tricks the 49ers have to offer — comparing Kaepernick to the failing dictatorship of Robert Griffin. That’s just a false construct. The read-option is still doing just fine for teams with better offensive lines and more effective quarterbacks.

Joined: 01/22/2010

MGoPoints: 32227

tricks574

December 8th, 2014 at 6:19 PM ^

They went from being probably the best unit in football to not very good at all in a year. Without that killer run game defenses have been able to key in on Kaepernick, and though he's a very good QB, he's not in the class of guys who can beat you even if you gameplan entirely around stopping them. 

Joined: 07/01/2008

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