OT: Jonah Keri on Fister trade
I found this today and wanted to post it because it's pretty much exactly how I felt about the trade. I am still in semi-disbelief that one of the "perks" of this trade was that Fister is under team control until 2015. What does it matter if a guy is under contract for four more years if he's not that good? Just thought you might find this interesting as Keri is very well respected in the baseball community.
EDIT: Chance Ruffin was the last player added into the deal. As long as it wasn't Smyly, I felt like it was defensible. Fister makes his first start tonight against the Mighty Morphin Texas Rangers.
I have this theory that raw park effects and defense-independent stats don't always tell the whole story on a particular player. Imagine you're a pitcher in Petco Park. You know that hitters are far less likely to hit the ball out of the park. Couldn't that change the way you pitch? Isn't it conceivable that you could throw more strikes without the fear of an Earl Weaver Special in the back of your mind, thus improving your strikeout rate, your walk rate, and your overall statistical profile?
I think Doug Fister may have benefited from that effect while pitching for the Mariners. The combination of Safeco Field and an excellent defense behind him may have made Fister feel more secure in throwing strikes. That in turn may have led to some microscopic walk rates (career 1.9 BB/9 IP) which contributed greatly to Fister's success. There are a couple of other more tangible statistical indicators that suggest Fister has had luck on his side, notably a very low home run-per-fly ball rate of 4.4 percent this season. But batting average on balls in play, strand rate, and other oft-cited luck markers don't necessarily suggest a fluke, or a pitcher ripe for regression.
I wish I could properly test my theory to see if there's something to it, but there are too many variables in play, and self-reported data such as "how confident was I when I pitched at Safeco Field" is rarely reliable. But the Tigers' trade for Fister and fellow strikeout-challenged right-hander David Pauley depends largely on whether this effect is real, and if the new guys can adapt to conditions less favorable to pitchers. The good news for the Tigers? They might win a very weak AL Central anyway, even if Fister and Pauley (and recently acquired third baseman Wilson Betemit) fizzle out.
I think the argument that his numbers are inflated b/c he pitches at safeco are valid, but his numbers are still solid on the road (~3.5 ERA I beleive). While not world beating, we didn't "sell the farm" for him and he can be a solid 4th starter (maybe even 3rd) going forward. Regardless I don't see how you can argue that he doesn't help us in the division race this year. He is a massive upgrade to whatever we were doing with the 5th starting spot. Just my opinions on the trade.
First test tonight: Rangers, prepare to get Fisted!
This year, Fister has an ERA of 3.00 at Safeco and 3.71 on the road. That doesn't seem like that big of a difference to me. The one split that looks bad is on turf: he's got a 6.00 ERA there (from a single start).
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/30370/doug-fister
Also, you could spin the "confidence" factor around. If I were a pitcher on a team with terrible run support, like the Mariners, that would probably make me less willing to take chances in the strike zone, knowing that one mistake might get me saddled with the loss.
The difference between Detroit and Seattle's defense is great.
Detroit's infield lacks range (Yes, Peralta doesn't make many errors, but his range is very lacking) and this hurts badly with a groundball pitcher whose swinging strike percentage is so low. Maybe I am a hater, but I really feel like this trade could blow up in Detroit's face. Wells is a solid player (lol @ him and Sizemore providing like all of the offense in last night's OAK/SEA tilt), Furbush could be a backend of the rotation guy and Ruffin/Martinez are both great prospects.
Wells is a platoon outfielder you can find in any minor league system. I think you are overvaluing Furbush greatly and are reaching with your assessment of Ruffin. Martinez has the potential to be good but he's only 20 and has a lot of work to put in still.
EDIT: Bless You Boys had had some good write-ups on the trade, which you may have already read, and in that case probably were in disagreement as they were all generally pretty positive.
I think Fister is a good young pitcher who will finally benefit from some run support.
just copy and paste this message from David Tokarz of BYB:
Oh for the love of...
Kurt, Rob, Al, next time you tell me I like prospects too much I’m bringing up this thread. Some of you guys are going so far overboard it’s not even funny.
The best player in this deal is a 20 year old third baseman who is hitting reasonably well in AA- who has the upside of first division starter. That’s good, but he’s a long way from seeing his tools realized, and he’s dropped off from his hot streak earlier this year. Grade: C+.
The second best player in this deal is a relief pitcher who has closer upside- maybe. His stuff puts him at the back end of a bullpen, yes, but that’s his upside. Even if he’s a 50/50 bet to reach that (which is fair) that’s not exactly a high value piece. Grade: B-
The third best player in this deal is an outfielder that is okay with the stick and good on defense. He’s either a really, really good fourth outfielder or a second division starter. Grade: C+.
The fourth best player in this deal is a starter with a deceptive delivery and iffy stuff. He probably can’t stay in the rotation long-term (though Seattle’s the place to try him in the rotation) and as a swingman he gives up too many home runs. He’s probably a seventh inning guy long-term. Grade: C+
In return, the Tigers get an established major league starter with an ERA in the low threes and a FIP to match. His xFIP (which, by the way, bears only a marginal home/road split- like a hundredth of a point) is just under 4.00. We also control this guy (who, by the way, cut down his walks last year and increased the velocity on the fastball this year [HE’S EVOLVING]) until the end of 2015. He’s going to be worth around 5 WAR this year, and in an average year, probably about 4 WAR (being conservative).
We also get a league average reliever in David Pauley, who, if he can put up a FIP of around 4.00 (his FIP is at 3.33 and xFIP at 3.93) would be a radical improvement over the crap we’ve been running out there. He’s probably only about a half win player, but he’s a bloody throw-in.
What part of that deal looks bad? Even if (EVEN IF) every one of the players that we send to Seattle hits their upside, we’re out a few spare parts and a good third baseman. Damn shame that we have a better third base prospect waiting in the wings, isn’t it. And guess what- not all these guys are going to hit that upside.
Put it another way: Ubaldo Jimenez has been worth, in the past three years, 4.3, 5.7 and 6.3 WAR. If Fister averages 4 WAR, he’s on the low end of that value spectrum. If he averages 5 WAR (not impossible but probably not likely) he’s only a little less valuable- and the Tigers didn’t give up any huge pieces.
In conclusion, STOP. You’re overvaluing prospects more than anyone I know. It’s ridiculous. And coming from me, that should say something.
But I was on the can writing from my phone.
on youtube when we traded Miller and Maybe for "Migwell Cabrara." That was good fun. I can't think of his name though.
Comparing Fister to Cabrera? The Cabrera trade was a clear win for Detroit and everyone knew it at the time. Just because BYOB writes an incredibly biased assessment of the trade doesn't come close to proving you correct. Only time will tell and I could easily be wrong, but you're coming off as if we bought Alaska from Russia.
at a lower level (less talent recieved, less talent sent away). The point is, people need to stop overvaluing prospects that aren't as good as we are making them sound.
Essentially, you feel like we gave up nothing of value then. Smh
I said we sent away less talent than we did in the other trade I mentioned. We also recieved less. Less is not the same as 0 value.
The difference between Detroit and Seattle's defense is great.
Maybe I'm wrong, but didn't the Moneyball guys basically debunk the idea that defense in baseball makes a big difference in the win column? It obviously isn't causing Verlander any problems.
I'd take a fist over a fur bush too.
His argument is valid...but he is clearly forced it onto this trade...
1. Comerica is still a pitchers park with huge outfield dimensions and all but impossible to hit it out anywhere near center...great for flyball pitchers.
2. Yes, the Tiger defense is not great, but he still has a gold glove centerfielder who tracks down alot of balls in center....a must have for a flyball pitcher.
3. Doesn't matter if he pitches with a 4ERA....with that offense, that will mostly result in wins
...loved Comerica's deep fences so much that he turned down mega-lucrative bucks on a long term deal to sign elsewhere and completely flame out! I know they've moved in the fences a bit from Comerica's infancy, but I completely agree w/ coldnjl's comment...it's still a large park and is safely still considered a "pitcher's park". Although a large outfield means more ground for Maggs to cover in RF, so that is a disadvantage to any pitcher!
Safeco and Comerica have pretty much identical park factors of 95 (favoring pitchers). Meanwhile, multi-year park factors indicate Safeco at about 93 and Comerica at 98. Still, both pitcher friendly.
Fister.
I barely knew her
Dombrowski is officially a legend if for no other reason than pulling off the Fister-Furbush trade.
"I am still in semi-disbelief that one of the "perks" of this trade was that Fister is under team control until 2015. What does it matter if a guy is under contract for four more years if he's not that good?"
Really? How is he not that good? And I'd much rather trade for a guy who's going to be able to contribute value for more than two months as a rental.
And in response to the quoted article, Fister is a groundball pitcher. If we had traded for Jason Vargas, then yes, it would be reasonable to expect an uptick in homers and a downturn in general effectiveness. Fister will be fine. He is not an ace, but he is a solid #3 guy. This was a really good trade for both parties, or as the Mariners GM put it, a "perfect marriage". Getting Fister provides us a massive upgrade in the rotation, where the revolving door of #5 starters has been a complete mess.
AND CHANCE RUFFIN HAS NOT BEEN ANNOUNCED AS THE PTBNL. IT IS NOT OFFICIAL. EVERYONE WHO IS SPREADING THIS INFORMATION IS BASING IT OFF OF ONE SINGLE TWEET THAT WAS JUST A RUMOR. Ok, now that I got that out, it's possible that Ruffin will be the PTBNL, but it is NOT official at this point.
You're in denial if you don't think this guy is at least partially a product of arguably of the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. Detroit is not anywhere near that generous. Look at how Chicago has worked out for Jake Peavy after leaving San Diego and Fister isn't half the pitcher Peavy is.
How hard is it to question a trade for a player whose skill set shows a clear reliance on defense when he's traded to a team that plays poor defense?
I'm sure you disregarded Matt Joyce's ability when we traded him to Tampa too....because he wasn't a top prospect and because we only used him as a part time player. Wells will serve Seattle well as he's an excellent defender and can swing a solid bat when given full playing time.
i'm fairly certain that Peavy is also pitching himself back from an injury. So yeah. And also, Peavy's HR/FB rate in Chicago home games is under 4 percent. So I don't think it's hurting him as bad as you think. It's more about the injury.
Peavy has a lower K% than his career rate by about 5 percent. He also only has a LOB% of 60, which is unusually low. That explains the ERA. His FIP, xFIP, and Siera numbers suggest a pitcher who is likely pitching a lot better than his ERA indicates. But again, like I mentioned, his HR/FB rate at home in Chicago is very low.
So the fact that he was traded from San Diego to Chicago has had little to do with the awful stats he's put up as a White Sox (or Sock)? OK. It's not like San Diego (or the entire NL West for that matter) is an extreme pitcher's park.
where I said his HR/FB rate at US Cellular was under 4 percent, right? His ERA number this year likely has more to do with random variance and recovery from injury than anything.
He hasn't been healthy a full year in Chicago has he? He seems to have a bit of the Guillen gene in him.
that his health maybe is what is affecting his K rate. That might help explain his lower LOB rate, and thus, the random variance in his current ERA. It takes pitchers time to figure things out again after his injury. But like I said, advanced measures do indicate a pitcher performing much better than ERA (a random variance stat) indicates.
Make a better comparison then Jake Peavy, he can't throw more than 80 pitches in a game and is in arguably the most hitter friendly park in the game.
very little difference in Peavy's performance via home/road splits.
I've been to almost half of the Mariners home games this year. I watch every Tigers game on MLB.tv. I've looked at stats. I think I have a pretty good idea of what the Tigers are getting here. I'm not letting some random writer form my opinions. We can discount his Safeco stats as if they hold absolutely no weight, if you want. I give you road stats:
3.43 ERA, 2.87 K/B, .246 OPP AVG, 1.13 WHIP, 3.55 FIP, 3.92 xFIP (almost identical to his Safeco number, lolz)
BTW, I loved Matt Joyce, hated to see him go. And I love Casper, and will love watching him here in Seattle. But at the same time, there wasn't room for him on the roster, and the Tigers needed a starting pitcher. Perfect match.
Are you really comparing Petco and US Cellular?
I'm just saying, as far as this year goes (sample size disclaimers apply) that the difference between Peavy at US Cellular and at non-US Cellular has been minimal at best.
I can't believe he is comparing Petco and US Cellular. Also, using a possibly still-injured and generally-ineffective Jave Peavy is a really weak arguing point.
that in the Siera metric used on FanGraphs (it's a slightly upgraded version of FIP and xFIP) that park factors provided very little affect on numbers. Here's Matt Swartz:
FanGraphs’ Dave Appelman developed park factors for batted balls for me, but these weren’t used in the new SIERA. I figured that since park-specific-scorer-bias might make batted-ball data less accurate, removing the noise might help. Park effects themselves come with a bit of noise, though, and the effect of park-adjusting the batted-ball data didn’t help the predictions. The gain simply wasn’t large enough: The standard deviations of the difference between actual and park-adjusted fly ball and ground-ball rates was only 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively, and the park factors themselves were always between 95.2 and 103.9 (the average park factor is set to 100).
The pitcher with the biggest SIERA difference — when it came to park-adjusted-batted-ball totals — was LaTroy Hawkins, who in 2007 in went from 3.63 to 3.73. The second-biggest difference came when Aaron Cook went from 4.00 to 4.08 in 2008. Brian Lawrence went from 3.55 to 3.63 in 2002, and Cook made the list again in 2007 when went from 4.63 to 4.71. There were only 16 other pitchers with ERA changes more than .05 in either direction.
As a result, very few people saw major changes to their SIERAs, and the combined effect was a weaker prediction.
Where did you hear that Ruffin was the last palyer in the deal ? From everything I've read the Mariners have until Aug. 20th to decide between Ruffin, Smyly and Brenley. I'm with you hoping it's Ruffin instead of the other two. I just haven't seen it reported anywhere.
It's just coming from a single misinterpreted tweet that has since spread like wildfire. Don't believe everything on the internets, kids.
3rd is Brantly. Either way, Ruffin is the player who is being sent.
"The combination of Safeco Field and an excellent defense behind him may have made Fister feel more secure in throwing strikes. That in turn may have led to some microscopic walk rates (career 1.9 BB/9 IP) which contributed greatly to Fister's success."
Then how do you explain his walk rate being lower on the road this year? It's pretty easy to cherry-pick statistics when you really want to believe something. At home this year he has a BB/9 of 2.19 and on the road he's at 1.78.
I don't buy Keri's theory, but I also know that home/road splits for 2/3 of a season aren't enough to get a good sample for Fister's actual talent away from home. With about 550 batters faced, you regress 50% to the league average. That's like a year and a halfs worth of road batters or so I think.
that the conventional wisdom that pitchers BABIP and HR/FB rates would be considered luck is kinda not correct. More recent research has shown that, in fact, some pitchers are better at inducing weak contact than others. We can say Fister has been lucky with a HR/FB rate of 4.4 percent. His HR/FB rate on the road is only 6.4 percent though. And last year, it was lower on the road than at home. It's quite possible, based on the evidence we have so far, that he's good at getting low contact. He has an FIP of 3.24 and a Siera of 3.93, both indicating at least an average to above average MLB pitcher. So your assertion that he's "not that good" is questionable at best. And yes, being under club control through 2015 at a very low pay rate is a good thing. If you are getting MLB average performance or better for that cheap, that's a very good thing.
And let's not get all worked up about prospects here. Furbush projects as a back end of a rotation or long relief pitcher. It's unlikely he ever exceeds Fister. Casper Wells is a slightly above average outfielder (maybe capable of a 4 WAR type season as his upside). Francisco Martinez wasn't even our top prospect at his position. His production in his career also has not matched his tools. He has almost 30 errors and probably was going to have to move to the outfield. Chance Ruffin is a relief pitcher.
most of the guys with lower BABIP and HR/FB are big fastball guys.
Curious to know your opinion on the trade because I know you're a heavy saber guy.
August 7th, 2011 at 12:42 AM ^
heh can't turn that down even if the thread died already.
i've watched him face off with the White Sox a bunch of times and was never super impressed. i thought he'd be closer to replacement level than his stats suggest. maybe Keri's of the same sentiment and picking through stats to get his numbers and eye test to sqaure. me, i'm more willing to trust the numbers since the performance and sample size for his components are where i'm comfortable with.
unless he were to outright suck for a prolonged stretch out of nowhere (and if your pitching coach isn't Dave Duncan or Don Cooper, i'm more likely to buy that possibility), however much regression you apply you're gonna get a guy who's average to a tick above. mostly thanks to his apparent command.
i liked Furbush, but he's a project by comparison. if i had a pitching coach i liked who said he could make something out of him (iirc, he needed work on his breaking ball and command like a lot of young pitchers with a good heater), i'd be pretty happy with the acquisition. but you know you're giving up floor to gain ceiling. hopefully.
n.b. being a White Sox fan attunes a person to the value of a pitching coach and inclines him to talk about that fact too much
that pitchers with high GB rates have easier to field ground balls. I.e. a grounder from Porcello or Fister will tend to be hit weaker than a grounder off of Verlander. (Fister is a 47 percent GB pitcher. This allows him to negate his lack of K rate with double plays). He should be able to mitigate the infields lack of range somewhat with his high rate of grounders (rembmer, because of weaker grounders).
What I can't grasp yet is his low HR/FB rate. His rate over near 400 career innings in 7 percent. His road rate is low too. It's possible that's a random luck item, but there is not a good way to know that yet.
August 7th, 2011 at 12:57 AM ^
like i said, i'm willing to bet his HR/FB are mostly an artifact of luck and Safeco. that makes the most sense to me having seen the guy pitch a lot and knowing the samples involved. in general, i think it makes to sense to bet on pitchers to be more like other pitchers rather than unique.
but so what. he's still an upgrade over what the Tigers were sending out there and remains a useful cost-effective piece. even if he totally implodes, he's not being paid enough next year for that to be a terrible blow.
to say to this article. i understand safeco is a pitchers park but comerica isnt very small either so it wont be that much of a difference especially with a pretty weak central division. he will be a solid #4/#3 guy for the next few years and he should help us cruise to the playoffs. as for the strike thing that doesnt make a lot of sense. i didnt know that your confidence effected how you where threw the ball. all that the walk rate means is he has very good control. it is also better that we got a flyball pitcher compared to groundball pitcher because as youve seen our infield butcher porcello's outings our outfield is much better than our infield when maggs isnt playing. and for those saying that Chance Ruffin isnt officially the PTBNL, well he is but it cant be announced yet. that is why it isnt "official" yet but this says enough by it's self,
The Mariners will receive right-hander Chance Ruffin from the Tigers as the final piece of the Doug Fister trade, reports Jason A. Churchill of Prospect Insider (Twitter link). Since Ruffin was selected in the 2010 draft, he cannot officially be part of any trade until August 15 and thus will be considered just as a player to be named later until that date. This finalizes Seattle's package for Fister and David Pauley as Ruffin, Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells and Francisco Martinez.
Ruffin, a University of Texas product who turns 23 in September, was a supplemental first round pick (48th overall) in the 2010 amateur draft. The Tigers drafted him with the pick they received as compensation for the Angels' signing of Fernando Rodney as a free agent.
In 40 career minor league relief appearances (31 at Double-A, nine at Triple-A), Ruffin has a 2.00 ERA and an impressive 11.4 K/9 rate. He made his Major League debut on July 25 and has thus far allowed two earned runs and recorded three strikeouts in 3 2/3 innings of work with Detroit. Churchill describes Ruffin as being a late-inning reliever, but he is "not sure [Ruffin] has true closer stuff."
Source: MLBtraderumors, a very reliable site which only takes info from a few people with direct knowledge to MLB front offices
i didnt know that your confidence effected how you where threw the ball.
Have you ever played baseball? I don't mean that as a derogatory question, but as someone who pitched all through high school and into college, confidence is a big deal as pitcher (or for any athlete of any sport at any position, for that matter). I think confidence definitely plays a role in a pitcher's performance, but, and Keri admitted this, how do you quantify a pitcher's level of confidence on a given day? I just don't think you can statistically prove that fact, and so it is difficult to assert that Fister has just gotten lucky due to pitching primarily in a pitcher-friendly park for his career, and for having a good defense behind him. As has been stated, Detroit is just as much of a pitcher-friendly park, so if there is any meat to Keri's assertion, we will see a decline in Fister's performance due to a weaker defense behind him. I just don't think there's much substance to it.
and what i mean is, how can you say that because of the park Fister played in he throws more strikes? that has nothing to do with it. a pitcher always goes out there trying to throw strikes, confidence doesnt change whether he is going to throw a strike or not it is more of a pitcher repeating his motion consistently and him being able to locate his pitches. basically im saying his confidence doesnt change where he pitches the ball and his walk rate, no matter what he is going out there trying to throw strikes doesnt matter what ball park he is in. You get what im saying?
I think it is a decent trade. Fister is definitely a vast improvement over what we had at the 5 slot and maybe an improvement over Penny. I see him as hopefully = to Scherzer and Porcello as a true #3 starter. But we still do not have a #2 in our Rotation.
My complaint is this move was just to make the playoffs not win a Championship. If they could have picked up Shields maybe Ubaldo(not entirely sold on him) it would have put them in the Red Sox / Yankees caliber of team in my opinion.
Currently we are probably the 4th best AL team and there is a big gap between us and the top 3.
right at the part where you said "maybe an improvement over Penny" and then just leave it at that.