OT: Italy eliminated from World Cup

Submitted by Alumnus93 on
Apparently missed qualifying, for the first time in 50+ years. Also eliminated teams: USA, Netherlands, Chile.

wlubd

November 13th, 2017 at 8:33 PM ^

I mean if you want to get technical, SA gets 4.5 spots and has 10 teams in it. 45% qualification rate is pretty damn high compared to anyone else.

There's always an argument about who should or shouldn't have the spots they do. Reality is every team controls their destiny and ultimately needs to beat the teams in front of them. Can argue over whether or not the 14th best team in Europe should be in or tell them to go back and either win their group or a playoff.

In 2026, the World Cup goes to 48 teams which will really stretch the limit of who deserves to be in.

Yeoman

November 13th, 2017 at 8:59 PM ^

That measures the overall quality of the teams sent, but what matters here is the quality of the teams at the margin: is the best team left out of South America better than the best team in from Africa or Asia etc.

What I think they should do is pay attention to the results of the intercontinental playoffs. If the same continents keep winning those ties, those continents deserve more slots.

And for what it's worth, since they started having these playoffs:

  1. Europe 1-0
  2. South America 3-1
  3. North America 2-1
  4. Oceania 2-2
  5. Asia 0-4

Africa's never been given a half-slot, maybe because their qualification runs longer than everyone else's and they're still finishing their round robins when the playoffs are going on.

Solecismic

November 13th, 2017 at 10:55 PM ^

But those are already dependent on the number of slots a federation is given. The ELO method is a decent way of evaluating the depth and quantity of fringe teams. There's always going to be a balance between trying to pick a pure "best" set of teams and getting more regions of the world interested. The intercontinental playoffs (and the second round of UEFA, for that matter) are a bizarre form of soccer. I tried to watch Denmark/Ireland a couple of days ago, and it was difficult. You're essentially playing a 180-minute game over two days and a goal by a visiting team, either way, controls the series. It's no wonder you see a lot of 0-0 matches in this format. You either have to play scared or play desperate. (UEFA presumably isn't involved in the intercontinentals because it wants the time period for their second round). I wish Europe would scrap the format in favor of a preliminary round that allows a longer second round where two get in from each group. No one needs to see Gibraltar and San Marino hammered over and over in the midst of a real tournament. South America is fun because it's the right size (and every squad is good - they'd all probably qualify in CONCACAF) for a complete round-robin and that's it. Plenty of drama last month with the fourth-best team in the world needing points in their last game. I'd just give them more slots.

Yeoman

November 14th, 2017 at 12:54 AM ^

It's the same format UEFA's been using for knockout rounds in their club competitions for decades and I think you're the first person I've ever heard criticize it. I think it's great--it incentivizes risk-taking by the road side, and once the first goal is scored there's almost always somebody forced to chase the game.

What you saw on Saturday, I think, was just how Ireland play. The low scores this year are something of an anomaly (although predictable, given which sides happen to land in the playoffs)--four years ago there were 19 goals across the four ties.

Here's one from the past that might be more to your taste...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARPzlagSAag

That was as frantic a match as I've ever seen, and it didn't stop at the whistle--that brawl on the far touch line continued down the tunnel and Stephane Grichting got kicked so hard in the groin they had to ambulance him to the hospital.

 

Solecismic

November 14th, 2017 at 5:24 AM ^

I'll take your word for it that a kick in the groin worthy of a hospital trip is high entertainment. I'm not a soccer lifer, in that I appreciate watching and pay close attention to the WC and to qualifying and I have "my team" in England's Championship (being born in Sheffield), but I don't watch any soccer otherwise. I couldn't name all the MLS teams, for example. So what I find fun about it obviously isn't the mainstream. I think Denmark and Ireland could play for six months under this format and not score a goal (I exaggerate sometimes). I wouldn't be surprised if today's match goes to PKs. I start getting frustrated with soccer in chase mode because for some reason probably related to the days when time was kept by a sundial next to the field, the referee can't stop the clock for an injury or a substitution or a long delay before a throw-in or goal kick or set piece. They figured out how to do that on the college level, somehow. Because of stalling, games in chase mode get ridiculous. We saw that in Trinidad and Tobago at its extreme. And yesterday, Sweden seemed in the equivalent of a 90-minute goal-line stand. You said possession doesn't matter, but I think it does. Stalling can shorten a clock, and there's so much incentive to do it that poor sportsmanship is a big part of the game, but it can't completely stop play. Under difficult circumstances, Italy managed to parlay that constant possession into a handful of real opportunities. I think the US would have been helpless against Sweden in that circumstance. And no, I don't like the format. If you lose, 1-0 in the road game opener, you start your home game needing two goals to avoid elimination or the dreaded PKs. I get that it can incentivize risky road play from weaker squads, and strong countering can lead to high scores. But it also seems to produce what's really a 180-minute game with a lot more chase mode.

Yeoman

November 14th, 2017 at 9:07 AM ^

Of course the US would be helpless under those circumstances. The US wouldn't have a chance of finishing second in a UEFA group in the first place.

If you want to understand why they use this format, watch the Champions League matches when they get to the knockout rounds next year. They won't look like Denmark/Ireland. Well, maybe Man U.'s tie will.

(And of course the referee can stop the clock. The referee is the clock---that thing they show on the screen is for entertainment purposes only. I first truly understood this when I saw my first professional match in Europe and there was no game clock in the stadium, just an ordinary analog clock that told the time.)

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

November 14th, 2017 at 10:24 AM ^

First, I don't think the US would be helpless in UEFA qualifying.  OK, let's set aside for a sec that they screwed up a much easier region - that being said, had they been somehow included in UEFA's process, they'd have started the draw in Pot 3.  Three teams in that pot qualified and two more lost out in the second-place matchups.  Would the US be likely to qualify - no.  Would they be helpless - also no.  They'd have three teams below them in their group that they'd be heavily favored against and might very easily end up with a way-overranked Romania or Wales as well.

I have to agree with Solecismic that the UEFA format kind of sucks.  San Marino having their faces caved in by Germany shouldn't really matter.  Netherlands earned four points against Sweden, but they're staying home because they weren't as good as Sweden at clubbing baby seals.  Gosh, if only they'd tried a little harder against Luxembourg.

UEFA would be a lot better served progressively eliminating teams the way most other continents do.  Spain vs. Liechtenstein becomes interesting only in the sense of making it really important and necessary to find out how badly we can embarrass a tiny country.

sharklover

November 13th, 2017 at 6:46 PM ^

I was impressed by Sweden's defensive team effort. They played a solid game. But there were few saves by the goalie. The only one that even tested him was a near post effort that came from an extreme angle. It wasn't a gimmie save, but as a former high-school soccer goal keeper, I would have been embarrassed to let that one slip in. In general, I'd say the Swedish defense was so effective that their goalie barely had to do anything.

Also, I think the Swedes played a much more complete game in the first leg. They had great movement off the ball, and crisp and precise passing in tight spaces. They made dynamic slashing runs through the Italian defense that could easily have generated several goals in the first half of that game.

In the end, though, I thought the Italians were undone by poor refereeing. They should have been awarded a penalty early in the first half. Yes, the Swedes were robbed of at least one clear penalty, as well. But those no calls were glaring. The FS1 announcers kept going on about how great the ref was, but he totally swallowed his whistle at the most important moments in the game. 

Yeoman

November 13th, 2017 at 7:30 PM ^

Officially, Olsen had five saves. I didn't think any were particularly difficult.

(I had him in a DFS contest so I was counting.)

I haven't seen much of Sweden lately (and none of Krasnodar) and I was really impressed by Granqvist--thought he was the best player on the field both nights.

Yeoman

November 13th, 2017 at 7:08 PM ^

Possession isn't worth squat. A side that thinks they have a chance to win a WC, and Italy ordinarily is one, has to be able to break down a lesser side playing for a draw.

Their talent pool is dry--they don't have a creative central midfielder to replace Pirlo and I don't see anyone on their horizon either. If a 34-year-old De Rossi is one of their best three midfielders they've got serious issues. They're where Germany was 15 years ago, and they'd better do the same kind of complete re-think.

Eye of the Tiger

November 13th, 2017 at 6:34 PM ^

...I am very happy. We failed to make the last two World Cups, squandering a generational talent in Ibrahimovic. Now we are back to what allowed us to punch above our weight in previous years: disciplined defense and superior conditioning.  

It helps that the officiating in the second leg was so bad, though it cut both ways. And also that Italy were off their usual form. 

Still, not bad for a country of 9 million to knock out a 4-time World Cup champion! 

sharklover

November 13th, 2017 at 6:49 PM ^

They looked really good in the first leg. Their attack was surprisingly dynamic. I think the announcers said that they scored the most goals of any UEFA team in the group stage.  And judging by their disciplined play in the second leg, they can obviously play shut down defense. They could make a run in Russia next year.

fksljj

November 13th, 2017 at 7:24 PM ^

It is a shame that Italia lost since there won't be hordes of beautiful Italian women floating around the World Cup. However, the good news for any of you lads going is that there will be hoards of beautiful Swedish women floating around. If you've never had a chance to go to a World Cup I would highly recommend it. There is so much ass at those places it's impossible NOT to get laid.

Yeoman

November 13th, 2017 at 8:15 PM ^

This takes me back to the late lamented "We Are Not English" web page, which alternated stories of English soccer hooligans at the '98 WC with a report on the Scotland/Norway match where fans of the two sides mingled freely in the stands and three marriages eventually resulted from the mingling.

fksljj

November 14th, 2017 at 10:02 PM ^

I just read somewhere that somebody is trying to organize an NIT-type soccer tournament for all the losers who couldn't make the world cup. Netherlands, Ghana, Italy and us are in the running. LOL.

Yeoman

November 14th, 2017 at 11:10 PM ^

The "somebody" is the marketing unit of MLS and the US Soccer Federation. It's not clear that there's any interest elsewhere though--it may just be a way to market the inevitable rush of friendlies during the period between the end of the season and beginning of the WC.