OT: FSU to Big 12 talk picking up heat. Clemson and Georgia Tech in talks with big 12

Submitted by orobs on May 20th, 2012 at 5:04 PM

 

http://dev.chuckoliver.net/2012/05/fsu-to-the-big-12-it-is-inevitable/

 

"According to two people with the strongest ties possible to Florida State's Athletic Department, FSU fully plans on exiting the Atlantic Coast Conference. Florida State will begin its transition to the Big 12 Conference beginning this June. One source went as far as to say, "at this point the move is inevitable."

Important dates to watch will be: May 30th, the Big 12 will have its conference meetings. June 15th, the new commissioner of the Big 12 when Bob Bowlsby will take office and August 15th, the deadline for any institution to withdraw from the ACC."

Comments

markinmsp

May 21st, 2012 at 12:53 PM ^

Agreed, VaTech would split if UVa got a good conference like B1G.  VaTech would go SEC, and it would set up an annual cross-state/ inter-conference rival game, (ie, Fla/FlaSt, Uga/GaTch, Iowa/IAState)

IMO it’s UVa, Rutgers and Maryland as new B1G invitees. All are AAU members, good overall institutions both academic and athletic, geographically well-placed, so with Penn State already in, it pretty much locks up the NYC/NJ, Phila. And Washington DC TV markets. Then they will probably hold a spot for the Irish if they still feel there is a possibility.

markinmsp

May 21st, 2012 at 1:38 PM ^

It amuses me how UWV must be gloating right now!

ACC rejects them in their last expansion, so they are forced to go farther west and latch on with a backup and join a possibly faltering Big12.  Then the Big12 rears up from the dust, and looks like it will not only surpass but could prove the undoing of the ACC.  

Half the Mountaineer state must be thinking, “Who’s laughing now?”

Leaders And Best

May 20th, 2012 at 6:14 PM ^

They add little value to a conference at 12 already (especailly Pitt which does not extend our footprint).  The Big Ten passed before for a reason.  I think the ACC's recent TV deal showed that and is a big reason why schools are looking to jump ship from the ACC.

If you are going to go above 12, it has to be the right schools.  In the ACC, I only see Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and GT adding that value.

I also think the Virginia legislature may have had some influence a decade ago during ACC expansion because Virginia was a member, but today they have no leverage at all.  If the conference consolidation happens, the two Virginia schools will be competing with the other ACC schools to find a home and will be in no position to make any demands.

RickH

May 21st, 2012 at 12:34 AM ^

I think people are too enamored with Virginia Tech as they've been pretty good this last decade.  I just don't see that continuing when Beamer leaves, which I feel like is closer than most would think.  Their basketball isn't very good either.  This doesn't account for TV markets or anything, but the two big sports I just don't see them competing to a reasonable level and their academics don't make up for it, in my opinion.

Blue since birth

May 21st, 2012 at 1:14 AM ^

I want VT for selfish reasons (because I live in VT country). I tend to agree with you about VT and Beamer... Although, a friend pointed out the fact that Bud Foster would be a likely candidate for the job if Beamer left. In which case they'd be in pretty good hands.

Lucky Socks

May 20th, 2012 at 5:37 PM ^

From a Michigan/B10 perspective I can antincipate some major shockwaves if this happens.  If the ACC gets pillaged by the B12/SEC, I can certainly see the Big Ten making a push for some schools.  As much as I love the current Big Ten I think it's inevitable that we'll eventually end up with 4 Super Conferences.  We won't sacrifice our identity, but I will bet that the Big Ten (and every other conference) ends up with closer to 20 schools than the current 12 or 14.

In that case, here's my pipe dream.  

West:                                                    East

1.  Michigan                                       11.  Notre Dame

2.  Ohio State                                     12.  Penn State

3.  Michigan State                             13.  Nebraska

4.  Wisconsin                                      14.  Boston College

5.  Iowa                                                15.  Maryland

6.  Purdue                                           16.  North Carolina

7.  Illinois                                             17.  Duke

8.  Minnesota                                      18.  Virginia

9.  Northwestern                                 19.  Wake Forest

10.  Indiana                                          20.  Rutgers (Big East)

 

I'd like to include Pitt from the Big East as well (Maybe take Syracuse too and move Nebraska to the West?) but I really like this alignment.  Aside from Nebraska, it maintains clear regions and the natural rivalries.  I think the competitive balance is there too. 

If the Super Conferences happen I could definitely live with this.  

MichiganManOf1961

May 20th, 2012 at 5:46 PM ^

Rutgers!? Rutgers?!  I'd rather have UConn.  Rutgers is just like that random friend you grew up with who is just sort of, there.  He doesn't really do anything interesting or bad, he just kind of sits there, gets made fun of occasionally, and laughs at others' jokes.

Leaders And Best

May 20th, 2012 at 6:12 PM ^

Wake Forest, Rutgers, Duke, and Boston College?  Maybe I could accept Boston College if it netted us ND, but all of them? The Big Ten is not running a refugee camp for worthless athletic programs.

Would you honestly want those schools on your conference schedule?

Lucky Socks

May 20th, 2012 at 6:48 PM ^

First off, I would welcome BC unconditionally.  Second, Rutgers wouldn't be my top choice either.  I'd prefer Pitt but included Rutgers based on prior speculation.  

But Duke and Wake Forest?  Damn strong basketball programs.  Wake seems to be respectable on the football field.  I wouldn't necessarily want to see them, but in this scenario they'd be the bottom feeders of their division.  Every conference has those schools.  Plus Michigan (or any West team) wouldn't play them in 9/10 seasons.  I see Duke = IU and Wake = Purdue in terms of football/basketball impact on the conference landscape.  

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

May 20th, 2012 at 7:07 PM ^

Well, I wish that were true about Wake but their basketball program will be in the tank for a while.  Jeff Bzdelik is doing a horrible job and driving the team straight into the cold cold ground, but he's buddy-buddy with the AD so he's not getting fired until either the AD gets fired or enough boosters tell the AD to do it.

Leaders And Best

May 20th, 2012 at 7:45 PM ^

If basketball mattered, the ACC would not be in this mess.  Football is the engine of college athletics.  Even geographic footprint probably matters more than basketball.  Maryland probably has a better chance of joining the B1G than Duke or WF on their own (I could see considering taking Duke if that is what it took to get UNC, assuming the B1G wanted UNC).

DoubleB

May 20th, 2012 at 9:46 PM ^

That was written prior to the SEC/Big XII "bowl" game announcement and that is a HUGE turn of events.

I agree that I don't think this thing is as far along as most people think. I also think any team would be foolish to jump until the parameters of a playoff are determined.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

May 20th, 2012 at 9:47 PM ^

That would be wonderful if it weren't six days old.  I think it's outdated by this point though.  Things seem to be further along than Frank had them at that point.

There was something interesting on that page though: a tweet by some random media dude whose reputation I have no clue about:

Sources: Big 12 expansion breakdown: 4 schools OK with it, 4 on fence, 1 pushing hard to make it happen, 1 pushing hard to prevent it.

The guy does refer to DeLoss Dodds as "the real commish" so he's got that bit of perception going for him.

Assuming he's right, it would be interesting to know which schools are which.  Possible guess: the four OK with it would be ISU, KU, KSU, and WVU - three of the low men on the totem pole football-wise, and the new guy (who wants more of an eastern presence.)  Pushing hard: OU, in order to balance out the Texas presence.  On the fence: TT, TCU, Ok.St, Baylor.  And pushing hard to prevent: Texas.

If I'm right that would be a pretty big roadblock.  But I'm really biased because I really don't want it to happen.  Seems reasonable, though: I doubt either of the "pushing hard" schools are either of the newbies or any of the hoi polloi.

coldnjl

May 20th, 2012 at 10:18 PM ^

I think FSU, Clemson, and GT are interested, but nothing definitive has come out or been put forth by a true in the know guy. Hell, Chip Brown has been oddly quiet. The ACC is still a strong conference and I don't see an obvious need to jump just yet.

But assuming those schools bolt for the BiG 12, I still don't see either ND joining a conference or the extremely tight nit core of the ACC breaking up. These two events are widely thought to be the catalyst for the superconferences. People talk about UV and VT as being tied at the hip, but UNC (the jewel of the ACC) has a state legislature hell bent on ensuring NC State is taken care of. The only way that would happen is if NCstate went to the SEC (who wants an in roads to NC), leaving UNC and Duke (and some speculate that fellow top dog UV) going to the B1G. In reality, the SEC wants UNC first, but does UNC go to what they believe is an academically inferior conference without Duke or NCState in tow?

Furthermore, the B1G has been incredibly cautious and currently cold to the thought of further expansion. Do you really think that they are just going to allow 3 or 4 new members into the conference like that? Most likely, they will wait for ND and maybe have preliminary discussions with UNC, UVA, UMD, and Duke. 

But more than likely, the ACC stays in tact and forms a regional conference on academics and basketball. THis was the original purpose of the conference to begin with. This also allows the tabacco road schools (wake, UNC, Duke, and NCState) a place for all sports that maintains some legitimacy in the eyes of the state legislature. 

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

May 20th, 2012 at 10:26 PM ^

I think FSU, Clemson, and GT are interested, but nothing definitive has come out or been put forth by a true in the know guy.

Well, yes.  And no.  What's got me halfway over the ledge is the fact that the site that - not that long ago - put out possibly the most well-reasoned argument FSU would stay put, is now on record saying they're gone.  It's one thing if the Bleacher Report says it; it's quite another if I've been citing a really good article in efforts to calm people down and suddenly the same people that wrote that do a 180.

I don't see the B1G rushing to grab any "ACC leftovers."  Where I do worry is if FSU and Clemson bolt for the Big 12 and then the SEC decides they like the idea of 16 and scoop up, say, VT and NC State.  I am not a big believer in the domino theory that always pops up, but that one isn't so far outside the realm of possibility.  The ACC would probably be fine without FSU and Clemson - quite a bit dented, but fine.  Losing four teams - that would be different, and the conference would have to get very proactive and creative to fix that problem.

Tater

May 20th, 2012 at 11:33 PM ^

Wahoo: I agree that Texas would probably be the school that was vehemently against expansion.  If enough high-quality programs join the Big 12, Texas is going to eventually have to answer a lot of questions about why they get paid more than everyone else.  

Texas is eventually going to have to stop being so greedy and take the same "share" as everyone else.  They ruined the SWC, and almost ruined the Big 12.  I have a feeling they know that the more teams there are in the Big 12, the more chance there is that someone is eventually going to stand up to them.

DoubleB

May 21st, 2012 at 1:07 AM ^

no Texas fan, but to blame the fall of the SWC on them is a stretch. 4 private schools (Rice, SMU, TCU, and Baylor) and a commuter school (Houston) with 3 big state schools all centered in one state wasn't a recipe for long-term success.

Now if the football had been SEC good during the 80's maybe the conference survives, but it had fallen off the deep end and had become something like the Big East now without any power teams--champion lost last 8 bowl games, most in embarrassing fashion.

Could Texas have helped? Yeah, not being a part of the cheating and not sucking ass during the 80s could have made things better. But the conference was eventually doomed and it's hard to blame Texas for finding the first life raft off the proverbial Titanic.

Brodie

May 21st, 2012 at 12:18 AM ^

I've seen several reports saying Texas is against it, but I have a feeling enough of the others will be swayed to make it happen. As for the ACC's health... I think the SEC would like NC State and VT, but there are major hangups with both of them (which is why they settled for less attractive Mizzou in the first place). As long as there's political pressure to keep VT and UVA together and UNC and NC State together, it probably won't happen. That leaves the door open for some Big East raiding (Louisville, Cincy, UConn, USF and Rutgers are all okay options, maybe even 4 of those 5) to stabalize. 

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

May 21st, 2012 at 6:37 AM ^

Well, some of those options are more okay than others.  UConn, Louisville, maybe, USF, Rutgers, not so much.  I tell you who I'd be intrigued to take in order to stabilize the ACC: the two Kansas schools.  It'd be a step down in the TV revenue department if the rumors about the two deals are true, but no more Texas is an awfully big carrot.  That idea may or may not be influenced by a desire to get back at the Big 12.

raleighwood

May 20th, 2012 at 6:10 PM ^

If all of this shakes out, it would be great for the B1G to take UNC and UVA.  That would give the B1G three of the Top 5 Public Schools in the country.  It would also expand the footprint into growing states.  UNC > NCSU.  UVA > VA Tech.  UNC's basketball program would just be and added bonus. 

If you MUST take 16 teams then pick two out of Maryland, 'Cuse, Pitt or Notre Dame.

Could Duke operate as an independent football team?  Would it be possible to offer them all sports except for football (like the ND arrangement with the Big East)? The B1G could guarantee them a certain number of football games each year that would help keep their revenue stream in place.

Duke would be an added bonus for academics, basketball and lacrosse.  It's just that their football program is a complete mess.

coldnjl

May 20th, 2012 at 10:14 PM ^

IF this happens, I would want Duke, UNC (my top priority), UVA, and ND. I doubt ND would come, so UMD would be my next choice. THis would expand the B1G footprint to the east coast and into expanding markets while maintaining the academic prowess of the conference. Also, the B1G becomes the dominant basketball conference with four money programs: UNC, duke, MSU, and Indiana.

WolvinLA2

May 20th, 2012 at 11:33 PM ^

I'm pretty excited about a Big Ten lacrosse conference, so adding UNC and UVA (or Maryland or ND) would make that happen.  In order for us to have a conference we either need 6 teams for an autobid or enough good teams for it to not matter (like the ACC now).  If we brought any two of those teams, we would have a very solid 5-team conference, with the possibility of a 6 coming along at some point. 

Wolvercane

May 20th, 2012 at 5:45 PM ^

One thing all of you guys messed up so far in the realignment is that UVA and VT are tied at the hip. Virginia state government will not allow them to be separated. 

EDIT: My four: VIrginia, Virginia Tech, Maryland, and Notre Dame.

Wolvercane

May 20th, 2012 at 9:08 PM ^

I believe this is the only way. For  UVA to go somewhere, VT has to have a place to go as well. As dumb as it sounds, I believe the Virginia legislature will not allow only one to leave, and instead force both to stay in the ACC to try to keep the conference intact if both schools do not have an exit strategy. 

@Leaders and Best: As long as both schools are public institutions and receive money from the state government, the state legislature will have a say in these type of matters. 

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

May 20th, 2012 at 5:48 PM ^

Words cannot describe my contempt for FSU at this point.  Is there something in another language stronger then "fuck them eternally in the ass with a ten-foot-wide spiky pole"?

LSAClassOf2000

May 20th, 2012 at 6:01 PM ^

If you are looking for something to ask FSU, of course, then I will say that one of my favorite questions in the German language is - "Wer hat dir in deinen Kopf geschissen?"

It's a very honest, direct question. 

That being said, I don't know if every school in the ACC now would have an easy time finding a home if the ACC fell apart in a bolt by FSU and Clemson or others. If I am Pitt or Syracuse, I would be glued to the developments in this story.