OT: Fantasy Football strategies

Submitted by MichiganFan1984 on August 18th, 2018 at 8:53 AM

Happy weekend everyone. Fantasy football drafts will be starting soon. What are your strategies as far as what round do you draft each position? Who are your top couple players this year on your board for each position? Who are your sleepers? Enjoy your weekend, only two weeks to go. 

Comments

jbrandimore

August 18th, 2018 at 8:56 AM ^

That is too generic a question.

To answer that, you need to state your scoring system, roster requirements and number of teams in your league, as these variables dictate draft strategy.

MichiganFan1984

August 18th, 2018 at 9:03 AM ^

I meant in general so everyone could bat around ideas.... but, 

Fair enough. I can’t edit, so here it goes.

10 teams in a league.

1qb, 3wr, 2rb, 1k, 1TE, 1defense, 6 bench and 1IR.

as far as points I believe general yahoo rules is what I will be in, but I know everyone is different. 

Additional question from top. How do you fill out your bench? 

BeatOSU52

August 18th, 2018 at 9:17 AM ^

See my post below for this also ,  but in 10 teams ,  you’re really going to want to wait on QBs until the very earliest the 7th round but I’d wait even longer .  

For bench,  don’t be the guy that drafts a defense and kicker mid rounds .  Wait until the second to last round for your defense and last round for your kicker.  I’d definitely just stream defenses based on match ups all year with it being a 10 team league . Load up on a ton of WRs and RBs your whole draft for your bench too.  

BeatOSU52

August 18th, 2018 at 9:13 AM ^

I can safely that don’t go into a draft set with a certain strategy in that it’s all about adapting to the draft board (or auction) based on the value out there .  The main thing is just having a general grasp on which players are good value out there based on ADP and I personally have a “target list” of 40-50 players who have really have my eye on and have down their yahoo, espn, fantasypros, and cbs ranking (go by Jamey eisenbergs there).   That being said I generally try to get at least one RB in the first two rounds and also wait on a QB until mid to late rounds (if your league is 10 or less teams, I really suggest waiting on a QB especially) .  But that being said,  that doesn’t mean I am 100 percent set on doing that.  If you draft late ,  I’ve gotten good value in going WR -WR in the first two rounds .    Sometimes one of the top QBs really just fall enough where I’ve taken one but it seems that doesn’t happen much because people love their QBs early enough . 

 

Some Players I am currently targeting in every draft with good ADP Value   joe Mixon, amari cooper , crowder ,  Corey clement , mike Williams , royce Freeman ,  Trey burton, Chris hoogan 

 

If you have XM radio , listen to channel 87 whenever you can in the days leading up your draft as those guys are all great and helped me win a lot of leagues last year. Otherwise there’s some great podcasts out there that I suggest listening to.  I listen to the cbs fantasy today (just listen to what Jamey Eisenberg says though as he’s way smarter than Richard),  FantasyPros, and the Fantasyfootballers . 

Lou MacAdoo

August 18th, 2018 at 10:01 AM ^

Eh, Eisenberg rubs me the wrong way sometimes. I don’t know if he’s smarter than Dave or if he just talks like he is. I like their advice and listen to their podcast before the season. Another one I like is the ESPN with Matthew berry. 

I like the players you’re targeting and agree with taking best available player. Another thing to think about is staying away from players that are already injured, unless the value’s too good. It seems like I’ve been burned by this too many times. Those little hammy, ankle, and knee injuries can stick with them all year. 

BeatOSU52

August 18th, 2018 at 10:06 AM ^

Yeah Eisenberg kind of comes off like an arrogant ass on the podcast lol but I’m still a big fan .   For espn,  I like Berry and Karabell the best .  I’ll still read Joyner and Field Yates articles but I don’t take them quite as serious.  Yates puts out good weekly material in the year though with his top waiver pickups column . 

Broken Brilliance

August 18th, 2018 at 9:13 AM ^

If you're in a league with one or more flex positions, load up on starting RBs, even ones that aren't top 15. Based on volume they should get you more points than a ton of receivers. 

 

After Gronk, Kelce, and Ertz the next ten tight ends are a wash so don't rush to get one. After seeing the Rodgers-Graham connection on Thursday I might be altering this slightly

 

Don't take a kicker and defense until your last two picks

LLG

August 18th, 2018 at 10:13 AM ^

It is not possible to answer this question without knowing the other details of your league including how many teams you have, rounds of drafts and the set up (e.g., QB, 3WR, 2RB, etc.) and how points are earned.  

But to give you an idea, I ran two projections:  one with PPR and one without PPR based on 12 Teams with 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 PK 1  Flex RB/WR/TE 1  Def/ST 1  DB 1  LB  1  DL.

PPR looks to make WR about 20-30% more valuable but individual players vary.

Here are the top 15 to draft

with PPR:  1 Todd Gurley 2 LeVeon Bell 3 Alvin Kamara 4 David Johnson 5 Ezekiel Elliott 6 Antonio Brown (WR) 7 DeAndre Hopkins (WR) 8 Melvin Gordon 9 Kareem Hunt 10 Julio Jones (WR) 11 Odell Beckham Jr. (WR) 12 Keenan Allen (WR) 13 Michael Thomas  (WR) 14 Dalvin Cook 15 Leonard Fournette 

without PPR:  1 Todd Gurley 2 Ezekiel Elliott  3 LeVeon Bell 4 David Johnson 5 Alvin Kamara  6 Antonio Brown  (WR) 7 Melvin Gordon 8 DeAndre Hopkins (WR) 9 Kareem Hunt 10 Leonard Fournette 11 Dalvin Cook  12 Julio Jones (WR) 13 Saquon Barkley  14 Devonta Freeman 15 LeSean McCoy (WR)

Obviously it changes the value of RBs among RBs.  For example, Eziekel Elliot become worth almost as much as Todd Gurley without PPR (155 to 152 points) when he is 20 points behind with PPR (187 to 167 points).

For Wide Receivers, here is how it changes their overall point value:

PPR v. without PPR:

Antonio Brown 148 v. 99 DeAndre Hopkins 133 v. 93 Julio Jones 95 v. 70 LeSean McCoy 75 v. 62

These points are based on Value Based Drafting, not the actual project points they will make.

You can download excel sheets here (you have to pay for updated projections):  http://footballguys.com/forecast.htm

 

Jangalang

August 18th, 2018 at 9:18 AM ^

RB's early especially if its PPR.

Don't be afraid to take a chance on a rookie RB like Barkley.

Wait on QB's.  In most leagues you could still get a guy like Stafford or Wentz in round 7 or 8.  I just don't see the greater value in taking Rodgers in the early rounds.

Also wait on the TE...especially if you don't get one of the top guys.

Last two picks should always be your defense and kicker...or a flyer on one of those rookie RBs that was drafted in the later rounds that is showing promise in the preseason.

I'll send you my PayPal #'s so you can split your winnings with me.

ndekett

August 18th, 2018 at 9:33 AM ^

I think the best fantasy stat is the expected number of points above the average player in his position that is likely to be drafted. Also, it's a mistake to take expected stats from one source. It's a good idea to aggregate them. Fantasyfootballanalytics.net is an incredible source.

LLG

August 18th, 2018 at 9:44 AM ^

What ndekett is referring to is what Footballguys.com calls Value Based Drafting. Here is an article on it:  https://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm

This is the theory underlying a lot of people's advice such as draft QBs later in the draft even if they score a lot of points.

umaz1

August 18th, 2018 at 10:28 AM ^

We are moving from an 8 team to a 10 team league this year. Going to be a lot less players available. Really have to make the draft count now.

Hold This L

August 18th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^

I usually take a few rookies. I learned to never take a rookie wr though. Been burned too many times in that. Rookie approach usually gets you good value for each of your picks, until last year when I had deshaun and dalvin cook who were tearing it up before injuries. Also, always try to get stafford or Brees. There’s not much to fantasy. Just don’t take a defense or kicker until the last rounds. And I’d hold off on te until the other starting positions are filled up. Even the best te probably wont give you enough points to make up for what you might lose by getting a good flex guy and a lower rated(in terms of point production) te. 

Kilgore Trout

August 18th, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^

Find an ADP sheet that matches your league rules and take the highest available player until you fill your spots. Don't think you are smarter than the experts who do this for a living because you almost definitely aren't. 

club2230

August 18th, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^

I use an auction draft and my league is a single qb league with 10 teams.  Auction drafts are the best.  

If it is a single qb league wait on the qb until the later rounds.  By later i mean 7+ 

I focus first on getting top tier rbs and wrs. Then i may snag a te then qb.

will lutz is a great kicker!  I like to draft a late round bye kicker then when a early round bye kicker gets dropped swap out after his bye is over and forget about that position.  

Luckey1083

August 18th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^

I usually try to draft two RBs first, but it depends on where you're picking.

 

I have a return question, keeper league, 12 teams, standard scoring, non ppr who should I keep:

Julio Jones or Christian McCaffrey

Keep in mind that I'm assuming most teams are gonna keep a RB, so the top 6-8 will more than likely be off the board going into the draft.

jdon

August 18th, 2018 at 4:14 PM ^

I love mccaffery: dude can take it to the house any time he touches the ball... that said, people are sleeping on Julio.  With Ridley able to draw some coverage coupled with those two backs, I expect the Atlanta offense to return to form this year.

 

I would keep mccaffery because he is more likely to have value in two years.  In redraft I'm taking julio this year.

jdon

 

Luckey1083

August 18th, 2018 at 4:18 PM ^

Appreciate it jdon, honestly both guys were pretty frustrating last year.  Neither was very consistent: Atlanta is gonna throw it a ton and Carolina is gonna run it a ton so I think I have two solid options.  Was leaning towards McCaffrey, I also have the #3 pick because my team was ass last year.  Think I might keep McCaffrey and then maybe draft Cook or Hunt with my third pick.

Lou MacAdoo

August 18th, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^

Keeper League question. Keep in mind that most of the top Rb's and Wr's will already be kept.Three keepers, you can keep them for three years, 0.5 ppr, 12 team league 16 round draft, normal rosters with a flex. So far I'm keeping David Johnson with a 14th round, this is my last year with him, Dalvin Cook with a second round, and my third is either Luck with a seventh, Derek Henry with a ninth, or Corey Davis with a tenth. I'm leaning Henry and then drafting WR heavy.   

BrewCityBlue

August 18th, 2018 at 4:46 PM ^

10 team auction partial dynasty league with flex. Higher than normal QB scoring. PPR with 40yd score bonus. Can keep up to 4 players at 25% increase (min $2) in contract. $100 cap. 

Michael Thomas $4

Bell $25

Wentz $4

For 4th keeper I can choose from:

Jimmy G $5

Zeke $22

Engram $5

Henry $5

AJ $12

 

WWYD?

 

For anyone still doing snake drafts where your fate is sealed by your draft position, try out auctions for fun strategic drafts as a changeup.