two University of Colorado political science professors say statistical analysis indicates firing a coach for poor team performance is far from a surefire way to turn things around, and, in some cases, may actually harm a team's future performance.
Looking at results for four years after a coaching replacement, the study concluded bringing in a new coach, on average, had a negligible effect on a team's win-loss record.
"I had always watched these teams fire coaches, pay for a buyout and then hire more expensive coaches and I wondered, 'Are they actually getting anything out of this?'" said Adler, a University of Michigan alumnus and college football fan. "What we find is, as you go out to the fourth year, the difference between teams that did and didn't replace their coaches were just nonexistent. They were performing just about the same."
How a Michigan alumnus and fan could write a study concluding this is beyond me.
Seriously, though, Michigan is clearly an outlier -- we are a premiere program. I think this study is relevant to teams like Minnesota, who fire good coaches (Glen Mason) thinking that they are capable of being more than they are. But the new coach can't improve the facilities, can't change the amount of local football talent, etc.