OT: A different take on Weis

Submitted by maizenbluedevil on November 21st, 2009 at 6:48 PM

Conventional wisdom is that Weis will likely be fired after the end of this season.

However.

Here's something I haven't heard mentioned that if ND is smart (And they are. We can blast them for numerous things but they're not dumb.) they will take into consideration.

ND's best prospects for winning next year are if their rising senior offensive talent (Clausen % Co.) stick around and don't bolt to the NFL.

Now. If you are Clausen or one of the other skill position players at ND, with a choice to go to the NFL or stay at ND, and ND makes a coaching change, what do you do? At that point, you're looking at the prospect of starting over under a new coach and a new system as a senior. That doesn't bode well for your NFL stock rising and if anything, chances are it either stays the same or falls, and the chances of things improving substantially at ND under a new coach's first year are slim. In other words, you have little to nothing to gain, and possibly lots to lose, by staying at ND.

The flipside is, if Weis stays, there's a much better chance the offensive talent stays and that ND is much better next year.

Now, if ND isn't much improved next year, then, fire him. At that point, you're not taking a huge risk of losing significantly more talent -other than the normal attrition- during the transition. Plus, it's one less year remaining on his contract at that point, thus a smaller buyout.

Plus, bottom line, there's the recession. Buying out Weis, plus hiring a new coach is a significant expense. (understatement) Thus, in light of the aforementioned, to me it makes much more sense for ND to take their chances w/ Charlie for 1 more year, and if things continue to go as they have, fire him then.

Comments

michman79

November 21st, 2009 at 6:51 PM ^

I agree with the Junior defect theory but not the economics. I think any of the major programs (especially ND with their NBC contract) have the money to pay it if they want to.

Ty Butterfield

November 21st, 2009 at 6:54 PM ^

I believe that 4 of the 5 offensive lineman for ND are graduating. Jimmah may not want to come back just so he won't have to have it be like his Freshman year when he got sacked a ton. Look what happened to Sam Bradford this year with almost a whole new offensive line. Jimmah may just want to take the money and run. Howeva, I do agree that if Weis is sacked that the prospect of Jimmah returning is very, very slim.

spider

November 21st, 2009 at 6:56 PM ^

Weis is already fired, ND has just not made this official! How many more speculative posts will there be?

I like the second part of your argument though-

Go Blue!

mstorm88

November 21st, 2009 at 7:00 PM ^

This also ignores the fact that the CBA could be radically different if these guys wait another year to go pro. For a guy like Clausen doesn't the money play more of a factor than anything else?

Mfan1974

November 21st, 2009 at 7:08 PM ^

I don't see him panning out the League, he's frail and acts like a little bitch. I don't care that hes rated top 10 in draft status, so was Brady Quinn and wow that has worked out great for the league.

Hoken's Heroes

November 21st, 2009 at 7:11 PM ^

Zach Fraser, the QB for U CONN, was a ND verbal but transferred because he didn't want to play for Charlie Weis. How sweet is this win for him, let alone for U Conn?

Great to see U Conn upset Notre Lame on the Lamer's home field.

BlackMethod

November 21st, 2009 at 7:32 PM ^

Zach Frazer was not a "verbal" but an actual member of the team. He transferred not because he "didn't want to play for Weis" but because Weis told him he was the fourth QB on the depth chart and honestly didn't see him moving up. Frazer wanted to play, so he transferred. Happens all the time.

Trust the Process

November 21st, 2009 at 7:12 PM ^

As a program, you don't make these decisions based on what current players will do if a change is made. As an AD, if you think a coaching change is necessary, then you do it now. Delaying this decision will mean losing out on available candidates (Brian Kelly, etc.). They already missed out on Meyer, I doubt they make the same mistake again.

The money issue is probably not a huge factor for ND.

maizenbluedevil

November 21st, 2009 at 7:26 PM ^

Ty - Excellent point about the OL. Didn't know that.

Also, the CBA, as another poster mentioned, is a factor.

I don't think it's a lock that Clausen stays if Weis stays, but, if Weis is gone, I think it's a lock that Clausen leaves.

I don't think Weis will work out long-term at ND.. but the point of my post is that *next year* there's a good chance they'd be better off with Weis than someone else. Plus, they'd save money, and, deep pockets or not we are in a recession. Maize n 804, you don't think the AD would take into account the effect firing Weis would have on the prospects of success for next year's team?

Once again, I don't think he'll work out long term, but, why fire him now and not after next year? And in regards to replacements, is there anything that indicates kelly or whoever is available now won't be available after next year?

Of course, if Clausen and the WRs would leave regardless, or if ND can get someone now they wouldn't be able to get next year, then it's a moot point. I just think there are a lot of things that ND will take into consideration that casual observers may overlook.. Weis is probably gone, I just don't think it's the total lock that everyone thinks it is.

Trust the Process

November 21st, 2009 at 8:03 PM ^

I would think the AD would understand the consequences of firing Weis now and understand that it might hurt the short term, but its the necessary move for the long run.

For 2010, I agree that ND is most likely better off with Weis than a new coaching staff, but there are things to consider if I am the AD:

1. Does the program want another year of 'Charlie on the hot seat' with the national media?

2. What kind of effects will this have on recruiting?

3. When do we start the new coaching search for the 2011 season?

You are right on the replacements, we don't know who will be available next year. I guess in my opinion, if ND had a candidate out there that they really liked, they should get him now before its too late. I think keeping Weis one more year would just delay the transition by a year, which is probably not ideal.

It will be interesting to see what they end up doing...

phork

November 21st, 2009 at 7:44 PM ^

3 of the 5 OLinemen can apply for 5th years, so the line isn't in all dire shambles. I guess it depends who the next coaching hire is really. If you go all out spread then yah I can see Clausen going.

I think Weis was salvageable before this game. He isn't now. Everyone and their brother has caught on how to stop the offense from throwing up gaudy yards and points. Rush 4 and drop the rest. Its been that way since at least BC. Which means that next year its just a full 12 games we can hear about how the ND offense has been neutered.

This team isn't going anywhere with the defense the way it is. And not much is going up next year either. Its best just to dump the guy and hopefully find someone who can turn the defense around.

PS: Yes I am an ND fan, but a friend of mine asked me to check this board out. I have to say after lurking for a few weeks there is some decent discussion going on here. I hope you can welcome me in to add my Irish POV as I have enjoyed yours over the course of the last few weeks of this miserable season for both us.

maizenbluedevil

November 21st, 2009 at 8:10 PM ^

Thing is though - and obviously you know this as a fan - they're not losing by that much. They're like a combined 10 points from winning the last 3 games.

The defense is bad, yes, but, why not make a change of D coordinator at that point?

Partially I'm playing devil's advocate here, but, also, I'm not convinced that things at ND are *that* bad (at least not as bad as people are making it out to be) under Weis. Also I don't follow ND closely so I could be wrong.

phork

November 21st, 2009 at 8:19 PM ^

Believe me I play the devils advocate on my favourite Irish site all the time, and I have been ripped mercilessly for it. Proven right, however. The flip side to that is ND is not that far away from being a 2-9 squad either. Its not the DC thats the issue, like with you guys its the personel.

Personally as I stated above, things changed right around the BC game. The blueprint to shut down the ND offense was hatched and its been proven to slow it enough that once in the red zone its all but neutered. Before it was a bomb to Floyd or Tate and the redzone was something their jock straps created during the game. Now that you actually have to fight for every yard, since every team drops 7 in coverage outside the 20, but tightens up inside it, you become easy to predict.

Hell I think the UConn coach said they made no adjustments at halftime and outscored ND 33-16. Time for a new era imo.