OT: Detroit Tigers trade deadline ideas/discussion
The Detroit Tigers have a few holes on their team that are preventing them from winning a world championship. What do you think Dambroski and Illitch should do at the deadline? Should they go after a shortstop like Rollins or Hanley Ramirez who could provide veteran leadership in the postseason and a nice boost in hitting or should they go after a lock down reliever who can provide depth and strengthen the bullpen?
probably both they need a shortstop they need a more consistant catcher and at least two solid relievers i doubt they make a play for hanley but rollins may be in play since they would only keep him through the end of the year with hopefully iglesias coming back next year
That's still a ways off, and there's no chance the Dodgers trade Hanley. Rollins is a possibility, but he's not cheap and he's shown in the past that he's not willing to waive his no trade clause. Wait out the market until the prices go down and see what's available, like I said it's a long ways off still let's let the situation play itself out.
This. The exact same thing happens every year with the Tigers for whatever reason. They go extremely hot and extremely cold. There's no reason to make a trade because the entire pitching staff decided to suck at the same time. They won't continue to suck, and just as has been the case all season, the SS position is not going to be the reason they lose games.
The Tigers are dead last in bullpen ERA. There's no reason to think that will get fixed simply by playing more games.
Well, that's not entirely true.
None of the Tigers RPs has pitched more than 24 IP so far this season. In a sample size that small, their past ERA is more or less useless in terms of predicting their future ERA, and it's really not all that great of an indicator of their current performance.
The Tigers bullpen is 11th in K/BB, 13th in WHIP, 22nd in FIP, 14th in xFIP, and 12th in SIERA.
The Tigers bullpen is pretty much average, certainly not close to the worst, and that's even with Phil Cokes numbers dragging them down, and he won't be around much longer.
So just letting the sample size grow will fix the bullpen, that and replacing Phil Coke with anybody.
And if Nathan can just give us a roughly 3.50 ERA going forward, the Tigers bullpen could very well creep into the top 10.
So they've given up more runs than any other unit, yet they're "not close to the worst" in the league? Yes, I'm sure Ausmus is comforted by the fact that despite continuous blown saves and botched holds, they're only 14th in xFIP, whatever the heck that is.
It's not true that no relief pitcher has thrown more than 24 IP. Chamberlain has pitched 25. Even if you were correct, that's not unusual after 57 games, especially given the fact that no one reliever has proved himself worthy of getting the ball regularly. That fact is that this bullpen is absolutely awful, and a sample size of 1/3rd of the season is most certainly large enough to reveal a major weakness. Nathan's ERA is approaching 7, and you think he may cut that in half the rest of the way? Why? What has he shown that would suggest such a transformation? And what has management shown to suggest that Coke will be gone soon? Come on man. Stop ignoring what's staring you right in the face.
Correct.
Using ERA to evaluate RPs in such a small sample size is silly.
And when projecting future performance, which is what we're doing here, it is entirely uselss and shouldn't be considered at all.
And a sample size of 1/3 season is small, far too small to really guage anything, even for position players.
Hell, even a full season isn't really a big enough sample size to evaluate true talent level.
As for Nathan, I never suggested he will turn around.
I said if he did, the Tigers would have a top 10 bullpen, without having to make any major changes or additions. If he doesn't, overall they are still an average bullpen. If he's unable to turn it around, he'll simply be removed from the closers role, and his negative impact will be lessened.
As for what xFIP is, it's actually a useful stat in terms of predicting future performance. ERA on the other hand is not. So when we're projecting what the Tigers bullpen will do going forward, it is a stat to consider, whereas their ERA to this point is not.
Not familiar with that acronym and what it means. As much as I love baseball, sabermetrics are somewhat useful at times but DON'T override everything else to baseball fans like me and millions of others.
(to me, xFIP might as well stand for the xtra FIPs [f****** Illinois Pricks] who invade the PawPaw Lake area this time of the year annually)
Stats like xFIP and SIERA are far more accurate for predicting future performance than past ERA.
This isn't some opinion, research has proven it to be true.
So when looking to project future performance, you should look at those stats, and not ERA, which is a very poor predictor of future ERA.
The fact is, sabermetrics are more valuable than the basic stats you learn growing up. There is a reason every single MLB team has sabermetric departments, because they provide a far more accurate way to evaluate not only past performance, but also to project future performance.
Here are some articles which demonstrate that these stats are more useful than ERA in predicting future performance:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-well-can-we-predict-era/
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12844
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/new-siera-part-four-of-five-testing/
for a couple of mudhen prospects. we take over the world. end of story.
can really bring the heat!
(sweet photoshop)
I didn't photoshop it; this really happened.
(actually I didn't photoshop it, I just googled Ditka + Godzilla...and there it was)
the tigers need very little.
1. Coke has got to go. Call up Ray for his spot or move him into the rotation and move Smyly there; though I like Smyly in the rotation. I think they have similar stuff.
2. Give me a damn catcher that can hit .230. Guys like that are on the waiver wire.
3. If Suarez can field, let him play.
4. Hopefully, Hanrahan is serviceable down the road this year in the pen.
Nothing drastic is needed at this point.
Actually, catchers with an OBP of .340 aren't on the waiver wire, pretty much ever, they're pretty valuable players, and are a good bargin at 4.4 million.
Suarez will be given the opportunity to lose the job, he's just out for a couple days after his Prince Fielder impersenation.
impersonation? I guess I missed it---what did Suarez do?
1.) I don't see a benefit in bringing up Ray just to let him sit and rot in the bullpen while only tossing 60 + innings, the kid needs to refine his breaking ball in Toledo or he won't become a starter.
2.) You won't see any catcher like that on the waiver wire, Avila is sitting at a measly .216 but he gets on base, and is playing excellent defense this year.
3.) Pretty much agree here, might as well exhaust all internal options before you hit the market for a SS.
i don't think smyly rotted in the pen last year. he pitched a lot of quality innings. from what i saw, ray can be tough on lefties. fastball and change up is enough for bullpen work. coke can't get anyone out anymore; not even lefties.
Smyly had already proven he was a big league pitcher, we havent seen that from Ray yet. If they want him to step into the rotation next year when Scherzer leaves they're going to need Ray to log 120+ innings and hope that he develops his slider or curveball. He won't be able to accomplish either of those if he takes Phil Coke's spot in the pen.
"if" instead of "when" in your reference to the possibility/probability of Scherzer leaving.
Now you've got me searching the internet for 'worry beads'.
Stay the course. This team still plays in the AL Central afterall
Coke's time will end upon the arrival of Hanrahan.
If Avila is out, which he may be after getting conked again, Holaday and McCann (Toledo) will fill in.
There will probably be a move made for another bullpen arm, over and above Hanrahan.
If Suarez can play at the major league level (risky bet at the moment), we'll probably go along with that, provided Castellanos can hit above .240. He's barely hitting enough to stay in the majors, the last two games notwithstanding. If either one of them struggles, a bat will be picked up.
Also remember, Mr. I is not in charge of the purse strings at the moment. Chris Ilitch is. Don't expect a big salaried pickup at the deadline.
Believe it or not Castellanos is up to .260 after tonight, he's walking a bit more recently as well so hopefully he's started to make those adjustments.
in Minor League history. Surely we can get something for Mike Hessman.
Sure. A hot dog, and if we ask really nicely, a bag of chips.
Please and thanks in advance
Bullpen... Enough said... I don't care how hot or cold this team gets, bullpen has been vulnerable all year. Hanrahan returning will be helpful if (and this is a HUGE if) he can return to solid form, but if Nathan and the rest of the bullpen does not show growth between now and July 1st, Dave D better be ready to start shopping... Hell, they should just start shopping for bullpen arms now.
All this talk about shortstop is overblown... Teams win every year with only one or two guys hitting over .300, and we are fortunate enough to have 4-5 guys that have the ability to finish the season above .300. Lack of production from the shortstop position will not be detrimental as long as whomever hits above .230 and is a solid play in the field. I have faith that guys like Hunter, Jackson, and Castellanos will get over this slump and emerge into the later months.
Offense should be the least of our concerns as our bullpen contains the highest ERA in the majors and... well still has Phil Coke.
It is probably easier to find relievers than shortstops also. Dambroski and Illitch seem to be more proactive in making deals when the team isn't doing well rather than waiting around for it to get better.
Tigers should get Hanrahan at some point, which would be just like a trade. Relievers won't be cheap and the Tigers really haven't got much to offer. Their only chance would be someone willing to ditch a contract for cheap or a cheap free agent type.
At SS the Tigers won't deal for anyone but a rental if they deal at all. Iglesius is the long term guy, no reason to deal for anything but a rental.
I think they'd like a utility guy who can play infield/outfield, those aren't easy to find. And with the way Avila gets beat up they ought to be thinking about the future behind the plate.
Tigers play their division foes in the next 2 weeks, if they can expand their lead they may do nothing this year.
Relivers are generally pretty cheap in trades. They don't have all that much trade value.
You say that, but then you see prospects like Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter getting traded for Koji Uehara, these things do happen.
All the Avila hate is somewhat silly. He's 5th in OBP among all AL catchers with at least 100 plate appearances. Yeah, he's hitting .216. So what? There are a TON of catchers in MLB that are total offensive black holes. He's not one of them.
The guys who aren't pulling their weight offensively at all are Castellanos and Jackson. Castellanos is also a butcher at 3B, so he's a double whammy so far. The advanced metrics actually rate him as the worst 3B in all of MLB--that's how bad he is.
So Castellanos is hitting .260/.306/.384 and playing the worst 3B in baseball. That is definitely not helping. But he's a rookie and you don't want to kill his confidence.
Jackson I don't get either. He's not hitting and his defense has disappeared as well. He used to be outstanding in CF and has really lost something. He actually grades out as below average now Which doesn't make any sense for someone who is 27. It's like he is concealing an injury.
Between the starters struggling, the bullpen sucking, and players like Jackson playing well below their norms, I don't know what is going on with this team, but it isn't good.
Personally, Ive never found black holes to be that offensive to me, call me laid back...i dunno...
on Avila---he's become much more productive offensively this season than either of the last 2, and I think a lot of it has to do with both his lower body health and his batting eye. The man was so beat up physically in both '12 and '13 that he could barely run, let alone have the leg strength to be able to make the throws to catch base-stealers. No idea what he's done to refine the batting eye, but he has been drawing a lot more walks this year than ever before, so some amount of coaching must have been taken to heart by Avila to be more selective. His OBP is very good, and if he can raise his BA to .240-.250 I'd be overjoyed at the catching combo of Avila and Holaday offensively.
Avila calls a good game, tooo, and he's been a + with his throwing arm, as his % of base-stealers thrown out has risen sharply this season.
Austin Jackson has a history of prolonged offensive slumps. He doesn't look injured to me. He strikes out too much for someone with sub-par power numbers and his OBP doesn't make up for it. Mystery Man.
Castellanos a butcher, though? I hardly see that when I'm watching. Yes, he's had a couple costly errors lately, but passes the 'eye test' to me, with his range, glove and arm overall. His #'s at the plate, while not good, have been improveing over the last few weeks, ever since he suddenly started getting more selective at the plate and drawing walks. Long-term, I think he'll do just fine for us at 3rd, both offensively and defensively.
There is some hope that Jackson can bounce back.
He's actually got his K% to a reasonable 18.8%, and his got a good BB% at 9.4%.
His problem is mostly just BABIP related it seems.
His career slash line and BABIP on fly balls is .210/.204/.553 and .146.
For this year his line and BABIP on fly balls is .140/.125/.386 and .082.
And to make matters worse, he's got a GB/FB ratio of 0.72, while his career GB/FB ratio is 1.32. Jackson hitting more FBs should actually be a good thing, and it will be if he is able to do so and maintain his career slah line on fly balls going forward.
He's also well below his career norms of LD, where his slash line is .680/.677/.980 with a .673 BABIP.
This year on LDs he's only hitting .476/.476/.714 with a .476 BABIP.
If he's able to approach his career numbers in those two categories going forward, he should be able to provide a plus bat in CF going forward.
I'm fairly certain that last night might haven been one of the few times Avila has hit 5th all year....it's been Hunter hitting 5th against lefties and Ajax against righties until this tailspin he's gone into.
Avila has hit 5th for a grand total of 3 PAs this season.
He's primarily been the 7th (88 PAs), or 8th (50 PAs) hitter this season.
To comment on the OP topic though, I don't see the Tigers having any trade chips to work with. The only thing of real value they had to deal was extra starting pitching, and Dombrowski blew that by giving away Fister for 5 cents on the dollar last winter.
who made the AllStar team in WM is, they're all 23, so they shouldn't be in Low-A ball anyways. Farm system might have some depth, but it is really lacking in top shelf quality. DD swings the trades he does because he takes advantage of GMs who are stupider than he is.
Getting rid of Doug Fister was a huge mistake.