OT: College Coaches Winning 75%+ of the Time
TL;DR - in the post WWII era both Stoops and Miles are running with the best.
With the talk of Les Miles/Bob Stoops (and some comparisons between the 2) thought I'd share some winning %s I compiled of guys considered "upper end" coaches, at the school they had greatest success at. So Spurrier at UF, instead of Spurrier at SC (or overall).
I arbitrarily limited this to guys who stayed at least 7 years at said school so it excludes a guy like Jimmy Johnson at Miami (FL) where he won an astounding 85% of the time in 5 years and Urban at Florida at 81.5% for 6 years. Of course some guys have the plate set up easier for them - Johnson followed Howard Schnellenberger (72% winning %) who set up Miami much like say Harbaugh set up Shaw (who if you are interested is rolling along at a 77% clip). Other guys have to build more from the ground up like a Bowden.
EDIT: Saban - per the key at the bottom I vacated any year there were heavy sanctions completely for every coach to make this easier to compile. Year 1 was 7-6 with 5 wins vacated at Bama. If you include his first year, he drops from 89.4% to 85.0%.
| Dude | School | Yrs | W | L | % |
| Saban | Bama | 7 | 84 | 10 | 89.4% |
| Switzer | OK | 16 | 157 | 29 | 84.4% |
| Osborne | NE | 25 | 255 | 49 | 83.9% |
| Devaney | NE | 11 | 101 | 20 | 83.5% |
| Bear | Bama | 25 | 232 | 46 | 83.5% |
| Spurrier | UF | 12 | 122 | 27 | 81.9% |
| Tressel | OSU | 9* | 94 | 21 | 81.7% |
| Stallings | Bama | 7 | 70 | 16 | 81.4% |
| Carroll | USC | 8* | 83 | 19 | 81.4% |
| Bo | UM | 21 | 194 | 48 | 80.2% |
| Stoops | OK | 16 | 168 | 43 | 79.6% |
| Miles | LSU | 10 | 103 | 28 | 78.6% |
| Royal | Texas | 20 | 167 | 47 | 78.0% |
| Hayes | OSU | 28 | 205 | 61 | 77.1% |
| Holtz | ND | 11 | 100 | 30 | 76.9% |
| Brown | TX | 16 | 158 | 48 | 76.7% |
| McCay | USC | 16 | 127 | 40 | 76.0% |
| Bowden | FSU | 34 | 304 | 97 | 75.8% |
| Carr | UM | 13 | 122 | 40 | 75.3% |
| Paterno | PSU | 46 | 409 | 136 | 75.0% |
| Fulmer | TN | 17 | 152 | 52 | 74.5% |
Sorted from most awesome winning % to lowest (75%). I chose 75% simply because that is where Carr landed and people want Carr/Fulmer or better results. So it helps to put modern options into perspective. And put Saban @ Bama in perspective - an unreasonable standard to measure others on. If you skip Saban the best in the post scholarship reduction era are a few guys in the 81%s. (Saban at LSU was 75% if curious)
5% does not seem material but it adds up. It's ~1 win a year when you jump from 75% to 80%. i.e. Carr averaged 9.4 wins a year, Stoops averages 10.5 a year.
Notes:
- I excluded any partial years, any heavily sanctioned years i.e. 4-5-6-10 vacated games, and any ties.
- Stuck to post WWII coaches.
- I excluded non power 5 conference guys like Peterson at Boise (88.5%).
- I used all of Paterno's years because technically he was in violation for a third of his career.
- Pete Carroll unadjusted for vacated wins was 83.6%.
- Mark Richt just missed the cutoff at 73.8% as did Vince Dooley at 72.3%.
- Holtz almost made the cut twice, at Arkansas he was 74.1%.
- I had no idea Bob Devaney was such a bad ass at Nebraska until I did this nor did I appreciate Switzer's accomplishments. Yes it was an era where those 2 schools dominated but you can say the same for Bo and Woody.
December 9th, 2014 at 9:52 PM ^
December 9th, 2014 at 9:50 PM ^
Devaney became more of a bad ass because he hired Osborne as his OC who revamped the team completely.
Wow... Saban is just putting up godlike numbers at Bama.
If we do get Miles, he should be able to up that winning % quite easily in the B1G
Good work OP
December 9th, 2014 at 9:51 PM ^
December 9th, 2014 at 9:52 PM ^
December 9th, 2014 at 9:54 PM ^
Saban has more than 10 losses at Bama. He went like 6-6 his first year there.
December 9th, 2014 at 9:58 PM ^
Yeah, just looked. 16 losses.
December 9th, 2014 at 10:03 PM ^
Saban is 91-16 for 85% in 8 seasons at Bama. OP didnt count the first season.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/coaches/nick-saban-1.html
December 9th, 2014 at 9:58 PM ^
December 9th, 2014 at 10:02 PM ^
You are correct but that year was a sanction year. 5 wins were vacated so I just excluded that entire year. Same for 1 year of Tressel and 1 year of Carroll. Didn't want to go through every coach and try to reverse engineer vacated wins and losses out so just eliminated that year.
Saban with that entire year thrown in goes down to 85%. Which is still the top of the chart.
December 9th, 2014 at 10:38 PM ^
That doesn't make any sense. Only wins are vacated, not losses. So if you "don't count" a particular season, that is going to skew the statistics. For example, Saban is going to benefit by not counting a vacated 7-6 season, whereas Tressel would be hurt by not counting a 12-1 season.
December 9th, 2014 at 11:17 PM ^
Yes it will skew the statistics - if you want to redo all of it including sanctioned seasons and partial sanctioned seasons feel free to. In the interest of time I didnt want to review every coach's year by year record for sanctions and reverse engineer it. It helped Saban and hurt Tressel and Carroll. So you can up those 2 and reduce Saban. I listed Carroll's % with the non vacated data and I listed Saban's as well in the OP. I am not going to go coach by coach and make a judgement call on what should count or not - my only exception was Paterono because it literally would wipe out a third of his career.
Again Saban 85% if you include everything and Carroll up to 83%+. Tressel would go up too. I dont know for all the other coaches. Doesn't change the emphasis of the post.
December 9th, 2014 at 11:52 PM ^
OP outright said he wasn't including years under sanctions
December 9th, 2014 at 9:55 PM ^
Good post, thanks. I'd be very happy with Les if we whiffed on JH. Stoops would be preferable but I would regard Les as an excellent hire. We need stability above all else right now. Someone to harden up Michigan football enough to bag an excellent successor would work just fine.
December 9th, 2014 at 9:56 PM ^
December 9th, 2014 at 9:59 PM ^
December 9th, 2014 at 9:59 PM ^
December 9th, 2014 at 10:11 PM ^
Yep Moeller was actually even better at 77.2% (I excluded the ties from that era). But I went with a 7 year cutoff - that took off Jimmy Johnson, Moeller, Urban Meyer at UF.
And you don't want to see Urban Meyer @ OSU in 2 years on this list if I did a 5 year cutoff :P He is beating Saban... by a lot.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:00 AM ^
Given that... lets see 12 + 12 +12 = 36 wins
1 loss to MSU
1 loss to Clemson
1 to Vatech...
36-3?
Nice. a solid 92%.... And... Meyer is only 50 years old... Short of another mental/physical breakdown, Michigan is in for a world of hurt for the next 15ish years if we don't hire a great coach.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:26 AM ^
True, but when you skip post season games that would likely be against the best opponents they would have faced, that skews the record a bit too.
December 9th, 2014 at 10:00 PM ^
December 9th, 2014 at 10:16 PM ^
Spurrier is very underrated. As you said, people think Florida was always good. I watched an ESPN special on him and not the case at all. They had years upon years of 7-4 to 6-5 to 5-6 type years before he showed up.
He also found a way to get Duke good.... in 3 years. He also won in the USFL. And until this year he did a lot of very good things at South Carolina in his mid to late 60s. Compare to what he did at SC v Lou Holtz who was in his own right a great coach. Holtz was sub .500 at South Carolina. Spurrier has been putting up 10-11 win seasons.
Guy is an excellent coach.
December 9th, 2014 at 10:00 PM ^
Paterno did it over 46 years - incredible.
December 9th, 2014 at 10:12 PM ^
December 9th, 2014 at 11:55 PM ^
... prior to about 1980.
But they upgraded thier schedule with decade-long series with both Notre Dame and Alabama, and then earned enough credibility to win a couple MNCs.
December 9th, 2014 at 10:04 PM ^
My takeaways:
Osborne coached more games than I'd have thought...holy shit.
Saban is God.
Switzer was pretty good wasn't he (apparently he cheated a little bit)
That shit bag Tressell held his own. Man, he had a good run.
400 wins is a loooooooooot of wins when you see it like that (JoePa)
December 9th, 2014 at 10:27 PM ^
Don't know if it is due to their personalities or assumption heavy cheating at Oklahoma and none at Nebraska but Osborne gets a ton of love nationally and you never hear Switzer put in the realm of the Bear Bryants, Bo, Woody, Osborne etc. I knew Switzer was good but even here in Michigan growing up I heard a lot more about the Nebraska teams for some reasons than Oklahoma. Of course they all had advantages back then that teams dont have now i.e. the hoarding of players. Also Nebraska had a ton of partial qualifiers that would not fly in the Big 10. (I assume Oklahoma did the same)
I think 81% in the modern era is perhaps even more impressive than what those guys did in the 70s and 80s. Lot more parity now. But Switzer and Osborne were definitely the Bo and Woody of that conference. I also was struck by the lack of "legends" in the Pac 12. Football was sport of the Midwest back then ... and the South.
Makes me realize the one guy I missed was John McCay at USC - 76% over 16 years at USC.
December 9th, 2014 at 11:56 PM ^
and then he won an effing Super Bowl while basically not doing anything for the Cowboys. Hell of a career. One of the best.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:06 AM ^
You missed McCay at USC and Don James at Washington had quite a run 73% winner too and a national title.
December 9th, 2014 at 10:06 PM ^
December 9th, 2014 at 10:08 PM ^
Head football coach at the University of Oklahoma from 1947 to 1963, compiling a record of 145–29–4. His Oklahoma Sooners won three national championships (1950, 1955, and 1956) and 14 conference titles. Between 1953 and 1957, Wilkinson's Oklahoma squads won 47 straight games, a record that still stands at the highest level of college football.
December 9th, 2014 at 10:20 PM ^
I may have disagreed with your take on Mullen, but you've been putting out some great content lately. Keep it up.
December 9th, 2014 at 10:20 PM ^
1) Michigan - 915-328 .729
2) Notre Dame - 881-310 .732
3) Texas - 881-345 .713
4) Nebraska - 874-360 .702
5 ) Ohio State - 856-319 .719
6) Oklahoma - 848-314 .720
7) Alabama - 845-324 .715
8) Tennessee -808-366 .680
9) USC - 797-323 .702
10) Georgia - 768-407 .647
The top teams, have historically, had the top coaches, therfore, it only seems to reason that both the University, and the fan base are not out of line in demanding that a top coach be hired to coach the #1 football program in the country.
December 9th, 2014 at 10:37 PM ^
I can now see why Pelini didnt cut it at Nebraska.
We though WE were spoiled? Nebraska had a 36 year run between Devaney and Osborne where they won between 83.5 and 84% of their games! Damn.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:18 AM ^
Oh man Texas and ND's bowl games determine #2 this year.
December 9th, 2014 at 10:26 PM ^
Great post. The people here who flip out at the thought of us not getting Harbaugh need to take a look at the two names right behind Bo. Cause they're on the radar and could be coaching us next year. And they're fantastic coaches!
December 9th, 2014 at 10:45 PM ^
What generated this entire post was not Miles and Stoops but Saban. I've read a ton of comments the past 2 months about why so many coaches are "not good enough". Everyone wants a magical unicorn. Some people even don't want Stoops who is basically Bo of the modern era.
Then I thought to myself, you know if Saban was a candidate for the 2007 job a LOT of people would find fault with him. It is very easy to judge Saban today post Alabama and say no brainer but in 2007 he had faults.
- Not much over .500 at MSU
- 1 good year at MSU
- The year he won the NC the SEC West was awful.
- He had some years at LSU not that different than DiNardo.
- He has "all that talent in LA to himself" yet had multiple seasons of 4 and 5 losses at LSU
- "Failed" in the NFL
- He can win in the South with oversigning but he wouldnt be able to up here.
Reading through comments and the criticisms of people of Miles and Stoops (ON THE FIELD not OFF) I am pretty sure if Saban was brought up as a candidate in 07 a good amount of folks would either be against or highly skeptical.
Les Miles has a better track record at OK State + LSU today then Saban did at MSU + LSU post 2005. (And yes Saban helped set up Miles at LSU in his first 2-3 years there).
December 9th, 2014 at 11:08 PM ^
well, kind of true, kind of not. Saban was an acknowledged great coach even when at MSU. Belichick and he are great friends and often exchange advice. So I think it is fair to say, most people knew Saban was headed for greatness.
Great post btw -- those are terrific numbers. Do Bo's first 7 years at Michigan too -- his numbers are crazy good in that time.
December 9th, 2014 at 11:45 PM ^
I'll agree to disagree that he was labeled a "great coach" post MSU or most people thought he was destined for greatness in 1999. He had 4 ho hum seasons topped off by a 9-2 year in year 5. He never had a season as good as Hoke did fergodsakes at Michigan.
6-5-1, 6-6, 7-6, and 6-6 were his first 4 seasons. Dantonio did better his first 4 years for example.
Again it is very difficult to go back in time and erase what we know today back then but surely while a respected solid coach no one knows which one of these guys will turn into a superstar. Belichick of 1996-1999 (Saban's time at MSU) was also not the Belichick of today. He was a failed Cleveland Browns coach who was an assistant HC/DB coach at the NY Jets at the time Nick left MSU.
Even forgetting that part, there are plenty of guys who are associated with Belichick who are unproven or flamed out (Weiss). And certainly being associated with Belichick in year 2000 meant little.
December 10th, 2014 at 12:08 AM ^
Belichick was considered so much a product of Parcells in the late 90's that, at one point, the Jets were prepared to name him head coach and then let Parcells call the plays while serving as a "consultant" in order to get around the Tuna's contract with the Pats. And Belichick agreed to this.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:12 AM ^
Isn't that his infamous napkin resignation?
December 9th, 2014 at 11:25 PM ^
You're making me re-evaluate my "Harbaugh or bust" mindset... like maybe there's hope for us yet...
I'm so confused.
December 9th, 2014 at 11:50 PM ^
Thanks but let me immediately rain on your parade. hah. Despite today's reports (which I think are done to be polite to Les and show the public "all bases are being covered") I think from all the scuttlebutt from inside this search (who is on the committee, Hackett's outline for what he wants in a coach) Miles will not be offered. Some will still view him as too divisive for the "Michigan family" plus some of the issues in his past. That's just my opinion reading between the tea leaves and I could be off completely.
And Stoops - well who the hell really knows if there is any small chance. It would be an unheard of coup for 1 blueblood to steal away another one's like that. We tried to think of examples a few weeks ago when people were throwing out "Malzahn to UM" and the best we could come up with was Bielmna to Arkansas and Rich Rod to Michigan but that was not a blueblood to blueblood transaction. A coach going from Oklahoma to Michigan would truly be groundbreaking. Texas tried it lasst year with Saban.
Maybe he is tired of it all and wants a new project but guy is a living legend already. If their fan base is unappreciative they should heed the example of TN, UM, ND (for 15 years), etc and be careful what they ask for.
December 10th, 2014 at 10:52 AM ^
It's Harbaugh or bust....
December 10th, 2014 at 12:05 AM ^
Saban winning that national title was what turned Louisiana into the fortress it is today. He's the one who started that process... in the past, those kids were scattered to the southern winds (Ed Reed and Reggie Wayne at Miami, Warrick Dunn at FSU, Marshall Faulk at SDSU, the Mannings all leaving the state). Crediting Les with that would be a bit like crediting Jimmy Johnson for Miami's rise, he might have had the more sustained success but he was working on foundations Schnellenberger built.
December 10th, 2014 at 12:55 AM ^
I agree that Les obviously was helped by what Saban did. But the time to question Miles was around year 3-4 when LSU dipped under Miles after he started off hot there. Then you have a question of was he just doing it off Saban's kids. But then he won the NC and had sustained excellence after.
And anyone who says Les has advantages in the 2006-now period, can be argued that Saban had advantages at LSU then Les does not. Namely Alabama was lost in the woods when Saban was at LSU and the SEC West was the weak sister. The power in the SEC when Nick was at LSU was in the East, specifically Spurrier and Fulmer. Miles has had a much rougher division to work with then Saban did.
In Saban's 1st year @ LSU, the only program in the West that was even top 20 was Auburn at 9-4. In year 2 @ LSY, TN and Florida were #3 and #4 in the country - and both in the East. All Nick had to deal with was a bunch of 7-5 teams in his own division and lost both to TN and UF in the regular season (beat TN in the rematch in the SEC title game). In year 3, Georgia was #3 in the country - LSU avoided playing them. The toughest teams in his own division were 4 and 5 loss Arkansas and Auburn. The year Nick won the NC the toughest team in his division was Dave Cutcliffes 10-3 Ole Miss. Finally in his 5th year there he finally had a top end team in his division, as 13-0 Auburn finally woke up. Nick promptly left for Miami Dolphins. So 4 out of 5 year he had the weaker division.
Compare that to what Les has been dealing with most of his time there. Both Auburn and Bama most years have been good to great to elite, and Arkansas was decent during Houston Nutt and they threw in A&M for good measure. All he has had to beat up on were the Miss teams.
So people can go back and forth on these points all day. :) What Les has done is friggin impressive on the field. And even more so considering other than Russell at the very beginning of his time at LSU he has been racking up these wins without elite QB play.
December 9th, 2014 at 11:58 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 1:41 AM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 8:16 AM ^
...this is a great post and it should end all argument that Miles and Stoops would somehow not be homerun hires (assuming JH decides that he is an NFL only guy).
Four thoughts:
1. How would this list look if we crossed off all of the "shananigans" coaches? I guess one would have to first carefully define "shenanigans." Under any reasonable definition, however, if we cross shananigans coaches off the list, Bo and Carr would move closer to the top.
2. Bo was better than Woody.
3. I wonder what a list of coaches that have produced the greatest positive change in win percent in their first three years would look like? I especially wonder what that sort of list would look like for active coaches.
4. How much higher up that list would Carr have been if he had ever figured out how to defend against a mobile QB and/or used the offense from his last bowl game versus Florida as the default rather than the exception? But I guess similar questions could be asked about others, too. Such as, how much higher up the list would Tressel have been if he did not always punt from the opponents 38 yard line with a three point lead?
December 10th, 2014 at 10:55 AM ^