Submitted by TK on September 24th, 2018 at 1:16 PM

I have some really mixed feelings about this game. I never want to see Ohio State win, however I’m not very comfortable with Franklin’s success at Penn State. We already know that Ohio State is very good. But I haven’t quite figured out Penn State at this point yet. They look like they sleep walk through 3 quarters and then pour it on. Penn State is a game that I desperately want to win this year. I am looking for any sign of weakness in them that I can find. I guess the best case scenario is that Penn State wins the game in an ugly fashion and looking not impressive in the process. How do you think this one will turn out?



September 24th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^

I was thinking about this yesterday.  Does anyone else feel as though the Michigan defense is greater than the sum of it's parts?  I feel like OSU is the opposite of that. It's not so much about scheme and working as a unit as it is about pure athleticism over their opponents. I think it's a 40 something - 30 something OSU victory.  I think I want PSU to win though...and then Michigan to beat PSU?  I guess.. 


September 24th, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^

That's what I've noticed as well.  They gave up over 400 yards to Illinois, including 250 on the ground.  That Kent St. game was 28-10 at halftime, and could have been even closer had Kent St. not borked the kickoff return with under 30 seconds left in the half.  And for the season, McSorley is completing only 54% of his passes and his yards per attempt is down over a yard from the year before.  And they really struggle to run the ball; Sanders got 200 yards against Illinois but has otherwise been somewhat limited this year.  

They are good, but they feel like they're running on fumes a bit offensively.  It'll be telling to see how they look against OSU; my guess is that McSorley will have some nice throws but will also be erratic and Michigan will get a blueprint of how to beat them as a result.

Newton Gimmick

September 24th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^

I think PSU is a bit of a paper tiger, and Haskins is scary good.  However, Penn State has played OSU tough lately, and at home I think it'll come down to the wire.  If it does, and the score is only in the 20s, expect Buckeye fans to start criticizing Urban's offensive gameplans, misusing Haskins, etc.

Either way, there will be delicious schadenfreude.  I hate both coaches immensely.


September 24th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^

OSU is going to maul them up front on both sides of the ball.  

PSU's defense is suspect, and the combination of Dobbins and Haskins will blow the lid off of them.  I wouldn't be shocked to see OSU put up 40+ points.  PSU has the firepower to score on OSU, but I don't think they'll be able to keep up.  

OSU by 2 TDs.

Newton Gimmick

September 24th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^

Yes, my thought as well. 

This is a remote possibility, but I was wondering about the situation of a three-way tie of 1-loss teams: say OSU, PSU, and Michigan, with all three of them going 1-1 against each other, undefeated otherwise, and the home team winning each (e.g., Michigan beating PSU and losing to OSU).

The tiebreaker would come down to the overall conference winning % of the non-division B1G opponents.  

Michigan: Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Penn St: Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin

Ohio St: Minnesota, Purdue, Nebraska

Would be crazy if the Big 10 East champ was decided by the result of the Northwestern-Illinois game.



September 24th, 2018 at 7:31 PM ^

In 2016 after the Iowa loss, it was much more likely the conference would fist Michigan because of the risk of losing the big 10 championship and no team going to the cfp. This year it is probably the same situation, psu winning would take this off the table, should Michigan run the table till the game.

This is obviously getting a little ahead of things but remember the most important thing to the big 10 is maximizing expected value. So outcomes that make Michigan as the greatest EV are what we want.


September 24th, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^

I'm not sure but I know between that and ND/Stanford that my remote is getting a workout Saturday night.  Unless Michigan loses, then I will just get super drunk in my garage on Busch Light and leftover red wine and pass out in the dark basement at 9:00 PM.



September 24th, 2018 at 1:28 PM ^

Based on remaining SOS and pure hatred for all things ND, we have to root for Stanford, right? Much more likely they slip up in a Pac-12 after dark game than ND does against the rutgers of the ACC (Pitt, VT, FSU, Cuse), NW, Navy (not the typical Navy that could pull an upset; too many injuries to their QBs this year), and @USC to end the year.

So, root for Stanford over ND, then root for the usual chaos in the Pac-12 to eliminate both Washington and Stanford. 


September 24th, 2018 at 3:10 PM ^

The best case scenario for Michigan is that Notre Dame goes 10-2. Stanford is definitely one of their best two chances for a loss, so we should root for Stanford.

Regarding the playoff...the SEC champ gets one spot, and Clemson will get a spot if they win the ACC. 

That leaves 2 spots for up to 5 teams (the Big Ten, Pac 12, Big 12 champs, ND and potentially the SEC runner up if it's a 1 loss Georgia or Bama). It's better for us if ND is NOT part of that equation and is one less team to worry about.

A 12-0 ND is in the playoff 100%. An 11-1 ND is a tossup, but an 11-1 ND is probably in over a 12-1 Michigan B1G champ given head to head (or, if not in, gives the committee an excuse to forgo both of them to add 12-1 non-SEC champ Georgia). 

Until Michigan loses another game (and is thus eliminated from the playoffs), we want ND to lose their big games.

Long story short, we want ND to be good, but not playoff good. Again, best case is a 10-2 ND that has two competitive losses and is ranked around #10. 



September 24th, 2018 at 1:23 PM ^

This game for me will be like watching my ex-wife and the worst guy I ever worked for duke it out.  Couldnt care less who wins, want both to lose.

Probably in our best interests though if PSU wins.  I have a LOT more faith in us beating PSU in Ann Arbor than I do us beating OSU in Columbus.

But like I said before.  Fuck both of them.

4th and Go For It

September 24th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^

OSU will roll them. I don't think the PSU defense has any hope of stopping their offense from what we've seen in the first few games. Giving up almost 350 yards per game to Illinois, App State, Pitt, and Kent St. OSU is putting up 600 yards per game in their first 4. Granted they played Rutgers so #padthestats but this is not a promising match up for PSU's defense. 

PSU's offense has been sleepwalking at times against bad to middling teams. If they have even a quarter like they played the first three quarters at Illinois, they won't win. 

45-24 OSU.


September 24th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^

Penn State won't be able to run up the score like have in their previous games against "meh" teams.

I would not be suprised at all to see OSU win very comfortably.


September 24th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^

PSU is 22 in defensive S&P+, OSU is 17. Both have top 5 offenses. 

The difference could be Penn State's senior QB vs Haskins in his first start against a decent defense, on the road at night.