OSU - 16.5

Submitted by bluebugsy on June 25th, 2010 at 1:40 PM

Golden Nugget:
Nov 27, 2010 SAT 12 2010 OHST MICH H -16'

Gimme Big Blue and the 16 and a half points!!!!!!!!!!!!

I also picked up UM +7 vs. ND, and UM -3 vs. MSU




June 25th, 2010 at 3:39 PM ^

...on your part.  My "that guy" comment was not directed at you in particular but to the general populace. Sorry you took offense, none was intended.

Oh, and "they show in voting details" is exactly what I said.


June 25th, 2010 at 4:09 PM ^

We're hitting gaps here. "They show in voting details" is not the same as counting towards your point total, which is what I meant earlier, with my first comment. There's a psychological aspect of voting for yourself (ie, you're a douche), but mathematically it means absolutely squat.

edit: gotcha


June 25th, 2010 at 2:05 PM ^

I bet that line will come down quite a bit by the time "The Game" rolls around.  Were winning regardless but if I was a betting man I would be picking U of M with that spread.

Pea-Tear Gryphon

June 25th, 2010 at 1:56 PM ^

I can't believe these lines for The Game. I understand 08 was a crater of a game, but these games are almost always close. 16.5 is a good number, especially when we start rolling fools this season. To steal a Simmonism, "If gambling were legal, I'd take UM and the points all day".


June 25th, 2010 at 2:06 PM ^

But U-M (+7) vs. ND means ND is favored by a touchdown, right? And the OP thinks that either U-M will lose by fewer than seven or will win? 

And if he bet on U-M (-3) over MSU, that means he thinks Michigan will beat State by more than a field goal?


June 25th, 2010 at 3:09 PM ^

The big thing with lines is the assumption that ND -7 vs. U of M means that the books think ND will win by a TD, ex. 21-14.

This is not true. 

Sports Books set there line where they think they will get the most action and create the most money for themselves. For example - ND fans think "Oh, we'll crush Michigan this year by more than 7... I must make this bet!" So maybe the books think "Hmm.. we think ND is a better team by 3 points, but we'll get more bets and make more money if we make the line 7 points"

Make sense? Maybe a bigger gambler than I can explain it better.

Also - home field is typically worth 3 points in a college game, so a 3 point favorite at home means that the teams are (seen to bet on by the books) pretty equal


June 25th, 2010 at 4:27 PM ^

Basically right.  The Sports books do set the line based on the betting action and not their opinions of the outcome.  The only thing I would clear up is "get the most action."  I guess that's kind of true, but the casino's goal is to have an equal amount bet on both sides of the game.  That way they keep the vig (amount the payout is reduced by -- if you win a $10 bet you will get your $10 back plus around $8) as profit and have no chance of losing money.

This might be exactly what you meant.  Just trying to make it a little more clear.


June 25th, 2010 at 5:25 PM ^

Therefore, the final line is a good measure of what people who do bet often feel the true differential is. I believe someone posted earlier this opened at 13.5 and has already moved. If a casino misses a line badly, there are professionals who will move in on it quickly. Get your money on M now, because I can not imagine it going higher, but can definitely see it going lower.


June 25th, 2010 at 2:11 PM ^

We're seriously a touchdown underdog against Notre Dame?  I don't feel great about our chances this year, but that's crazy.  It's on the road, but we beat them last year and they are in major rebuilding mode.  I see that as a "pick em", at worst.

Us being favored by 3 over MSU doesn't seem right either.  16.5 points against OSU sounds about right.


June 25th, 2010 at 2:36 PM ^

Actually the line opened at OSU -13.5 and its being bet up by all the sharps out in Vegas right now.

I've been meaning to do posts at the JCB and a diary here on the relased lines, but I have been sleeping with Soccer on the side.


June 25th, 2010 at 2:47 PM ^

Tressel doesn't try to blow teams out. He typically looks to get ahead by two scores, then entrusts his defense and special teams to win the game and his offense merely not to blow it.

I'd take the 7 against ND also. They were at most a hair better than we were overall last year (and of course lost head to head), and the passing game which was their one bright spot last year is mostly gone with the loss of Clausen, Tate, and most of the line. 


June 25th, 2010 at 3:15 PM ^

JT is just enraged with jealousy over the neat looking regal purple of Northwestern Since he cant wear sweater vests in that color, he takes it out on the poor, bookish football players of Northwestern.

What a freaking ogre.

But, I think the '04 loss is really it. I remember thinking that night in Chicago when it happened, that the Cats might not come within 4 TDs of the Bucks for about a decade at least in retribution.

Good times.

Trivia: That was a day that Michigan won and OSU, MSU and ND all lost. It didnt happen again until this past season's ND game.


June 30th, 2010 at 12:34 PM ^

OK, fellas.  Just to clarify.

Yes I know we're not the Giants - we were Blue first.

These were all real futures wagers.  Michigan is/was a 16.5 point underdog to OSU, a 7 point underdog to Notre Dame, and a 3 point favorite to Moo U.  $100 appiece (betting $110 to win $100).  The Godlen Nugget had these lines.  By picking these now they are like buying futures in the commodity market.  I think all will cash anyway, but if the lines move markedly it leaves the opportunity to "middle" the games.  For example, if Pryor breaks his leg and the line at gametime ends up as Michigan as a 10 point favorite I would have the opportunity to bet the other way and win both bets when Michigan beats the Buckeyes by 6 on a 32 yard D-Rob run on the final play of the fourth quarter.