Optimism About Tourney Draw
It sucks to lose to MSU for the third time in a row, but the tourney draw provides an easier potential path to the Final Four than any other 2 seed. As some have pointed out already, it is oddly similar to last year's draw in many respects - same side as Montana, Florida State and Gonzaga, potential mid major second round matchup and potential matchup with state of Texas team in sweet 16.
I think Michigan is the best team in their region and simply has an MSU problem this year. Gonzaga has a lot of talent but their schedule doesn't exactly do a great job of preparing them for the tourney. I'm quite hopeful we can make a Final Four run before bowing out to Duke. Who's with me??!!
March 17th, 2019 at 11:00 PM ^
I also really like our draw. Getting to the Final Four is definitely possible.
March 17th, 2019 at 11:07 PM ^
In my opinion, getting to the Final Four is going to be dependent on Charles Matthews. He's the closest thing we have to MAAR this year, in that when you need someone to go get a bucket, he can get in the lane and either drive all the way, or pivot and hit that patented turn-around. Was kind of surprised he didn't play down the stretch today but maybe he's not quite 100% yet. Regardless, he's our X-Factor for a deep run in my opinion.
March 17th, 2019 at 11:14 PM ^
I would argue that we don’t have a go to player and the closest thing we have to one is Iggy. Walton, Jr., Irvin, MAAR and Moe all stepped up come tourney time, I thought Matthews would do the same but he hasn’t yet.
March 17th, 2019 at 11:17 PM ^
I disagree with you last point completely. I thought Matthews played his absolute best ball in the tourney last year. In fact, Moe was pretty absent until Texas A&M and Loyola, but Charles was the one constant all tourney. I hope he can turn it on again this year. He's such a better player when he works inside-out and is totally broken when he starts jacking threes and midrangers before he tries to drive inside
March 17th, 2019 at 11:31 PM ^
He is very frustrating to watch. He will rise up effortlessly and hit those turnarounds...other times he will turn a 10-footer into a 15-footer by fading away so far. He’ll nimbly step around or through a defender for a basket...then he’ll do the Bambi on ice thing. And he gets cleanly stripped more than any player I can remember, followed by his two-armed, palms-up “What?!?” pleading to the refs. Given Poole’s squirrely tendencies, Matthews needs to be consistent.
He's such a better player when he works inside-out and is totally broken when he starts jacking threes and midrangers before he tries to drive inside
This also describes Poole, somewhat. He’s quick and lethal when he can get to the hole and I think it opens up his 3 pt game better when an opponent can’t be too aggressive when guarding him. Sometimes he just gets too in love with jacking up the 3.
March 17th, 2019 at 11:13 PM ^
With this draw, anything short of a final 4 run might be disappointing. Duke is good, but beatable. This definitely helps with getting over the BTT quickly. We have a great shot at a National Championship. I’m not saying we will win it all but after looking at the bracket, I would give us 3rd or 4th best odds to do it.
March 17th, 2019 at 11:36 PM ^
This is over the top. Nevada and Texas Tech are good teams. A loss to either would not surprise me. A Michigan-Texas Tech game would be a toss up IMO. Gonzaga is long and has a ton of weapons. UNC is also long, but the Bulldogs are a better shooting team. I want to get to the second weekend. Anything can happen from there.
March 17th, 2019 at 11:43 PM ^
Nevada and Texas Tech are good but not great.
March 17th, 2019 at 11:53 PM ^
Neither is Michigan. Losing to either of those two teams wouldn't be crazy.
March 18th, 2019 at 12:32 AM ^
Texas Tech is really good. Tough defensively, right up there with us. They’ve got a better offensive option than us.
FSU is the alternative to Gonzaga in our region, too. Length and athleticism. Switch city. We almost lost to them last year.
Of the one seeds I’d rather have Gonzaga. But TT and FSU really worry me. Our offense is vulnerable.
Who would you think has better odds? Duke, yes. And then....UVA? Ok, I'll buy that. Then, why not Michigan?
They're 4th in Torvik, 5th in kenpom. They are a top 5 team with a relatively easy draw. To think they have the 3rd or 4th best chance isn't crazy.
Nevada isn't any better than a normal 7 seed. Texas Tech is good. They're the best 3 seed. But other than that, it's a favorable draw and they'll have home court advantage if they make the sweet 16.
It’s the “anything short of the final four might be disappointing” that is over the top. There are a lot of good teams in our region IMO. I would not be surprised at anything other than a first round loss
Our fan base is crazy.
Lose to a top 6 team (MSU) and people say "we won't get out of the first weekend". Because that makes sense.
Then the next day, we have other peeps saying "I will be disappointed if we don't finish in the top 4."
I know "fan" is short for "fanatic", but damn we crazy. (Bi-Polar to be exact.)
Seriously, we just demolished 2 tournament teams on route to losing in the last minute to a team that could have arguably been a 1 seed. Yet in this thread i've seen both that we'll be lucky to make it to second weekend, and that not making final four would be a disapointment. Kenpom puts us at 6th best odds to win the entire tournament. We have a solid team, lets just play the games and see what happens.
Yeah, kenpom has us with a 22% chance to make the final four so expecting that outcome is a bit optimistic. The draw is pretty manageable but the margin between most teams after the first round is pretty narrow. We're better than NV and TT but not by that much, especially compared to the latter. Winning 3 straight competitive games is tough.
You have to beat good teams to advance. Which 2 seed(s) have an equal or better draw than we do?
I am likely underrating Gonzaga because I saw them exactly once for a whole game- their loss to St. Mary's, and they did not look like a #1 seed at all. But I have seen the other #1 seeds multiple times and all would be very, very difficult (including a rematch with NC).
We didn't play well offensively in 5 of 6 games in last year's tourney, won with defense and our defense is better this year. How many of our potential opponents will have played a defense on a par with ours?
March 18th, 2019 at 10:06 AM ^
You have a very poor understanding of odds. Even if we were favored to win every game by 80% each game, we would only have 40% chance of making Final Four.
Being disappointed for not making Final Four is just delusional.
March 18th, 2019 at 11:19 AM ^
40.96% chance. (Hey, got to stay optimistic!)
March 17th, 2019 at 11:15 PM ^
If Michigan gets to the final four, Duke will not be the team that makes it out of that region? Why? Because Fuck Duke
March 17th, 2019 at 11:17 PM ^
Final four and salvage the season
March 17th, 2019 at 11:18 PM ^
I feel like the team has deficiencies that can raise up at any time and possibly cause an early tournament exit but this was the best draw for them.
You could say this about every team, every year.*
*Except DOOK. Because ZIOOOOOOON. Source: ESPN.
March 17th, 2019 at 11:30 PM ^
Once the tourney starts, we all know anything can happen. But this draw sure helps the sting of 3 losses to sparty! Can't complain about it at all. We should still lose in the 2nd or 3rd round but I would not be surprised one bit to see us against Duke in the final 4. That game would make me cringe. But it's March right??!!
GO BLUE!!
(oops, retracted)
You think as a 2 seed we should lose in the 2nd round? To a 7 or 10 seed?
March 17th, 2019 at 11:41 PM ^
I definitely think we can make the Final Four, but Poole has to figure it out fast, especially on defense.
I could see us losing to Buffalo, but no one else in the region scares me. Texas Tech can't shoot, FSU is poorly coached, Gonzaga is formidable but certainly beatable.
Of course, it would figure that both we and MSU make the Final Four, and we lose to Staee a 4th time. Holy shit would this board suck for a loooong time.
March 17th, 2019 at 11:56 PM ^
Teams may forget about Poole If they just look at the stat sheets. He has not done anything this year but Big Ten teams account for him. He may go off in a couple games.
March 18th, 2019 at 12:12 AM ^
Shouldn't be a problem if MSU loses in the second round...
Is Conner George the new Ben Carter?
i think sparty will find their tournament legs this year. hate to say it, but they have talent and a spine.
In 89 lost badly to Illinois twice during regular big ten play. Finally got them when it counted in the final four. I like our team this year, but I feel like we lack a consistant / elite threat from the outside to pull off those tight touney games like we have done in previous years If Simpson could shoot from the outside like Burke, this would be a final 4 team.
Never fair to make ‘89 comparisons. That team never played up to their potential until the tourney, when Rice decided to just score 30 every game. They had a crazy amount of talent on that team. ‘88 team might have had even more.
Would it be unwarranted though? How many times has a team lost to another 4 times in one season? That's almost impossible.
Or we finally beat them and get the last laugh. They get us 3 of 4 (i say 2.5, that bs in EL and awful officiating is most puzzling thing of season) but we win the biggest one. Think of the couches being burned in EL that night!!
Counting on Poole is a fools errand. He is who he is.
March 17th, 2019 at 11:52 PM ^
It feels pretty chalky. Gonzaga is really good but I could see them slip up against Syracuse just because that's a weird defense they probably haven't seen uch before (same with UM against Nevada, though I tend to trust UM in games where the opposing team has a mediocre defense and great offense versus a TT-type team that is defense-first and an okay offense).
The East looks tough, though my guess is Duke struggles somewhat more than people expect against a possible Va Tech Sweet 16 game. But MSU basically has to get by Louisville and then they are on to the Elite 8; I have no faith in LSU especially as they continue to look for a coach.
UVa got a great bracket for them, though good lord is it going to be ugly. Cincy will probably come out of the bottom half. Midwest feels like UNC-UK all the way. Just the two best teams by a pretty clear margin.
Gun to my head I think UM loses in the Elite 8 because of something goofy against Gonzaga, but if they get a break and play, I don't know, FSU or Marquette then all bets are off. I don't see them getting past Duke unless Zion gets hurt again.
LSU vs MSU. Maybe that's what the meteor has been waiting for.
March 18th, 2019 at 12:05 AM ^
Just watching the coverage on ESPN already makes me sick to my stomach. I feel like every ESPN analyst (namely Jay Bilas or Dick Vitale) HATE UM. This time it was Seth Greenberg saying that "the winner of Florida/Nevada poses a tough matchup for UM and will take them out". I feel like these guys say this same **** every year on UM's second/third round matchup.
One instance that stands out to me as quite obvious was 2013 when we had the 4 seed and faced S Dakota St. in round 1 and analysts were saying UM was on upset alert to the jackrabbits cause they had Nate Wolters. I will never forget that name. Then the next round they played VCU and analysts were saying VCU's fast break could break Michigan's will. I guess they have to provide some sort of possibility for the underdog but they were acting like VCU was a natty contender. Michigan dismantled VCU that game in one of the most enjoyable UM games I've ever watched.
Last year, I think this was the loudest when we faced A&M in the sweet sixteen. We were toast because they had two tall dudes who were gonna dominate the boards. We had no shot. I think this was probably the most reasonable upset possibility. But we dismantled them as well. Granted, we had one of the best shooting nights I've seen from UM in a postseason game.
But what gives? Do analysts hate UM? Any good press is just "Simpson has a fun hook shot, so fun!". Snooze
March 18th, 2019 at 12:13 AM ^
We dont have the national respect yet. Doesnt matter, most these talking heads don't know their asses from their elbows. Just paid shills for the big bball brands
March 18th, 2019 at 12:34 AM ^
Greenberg is actually pretty sharp. He picked us to go to the Final 4 last year. This year he's backed off his love for us, and he's right again.
Actually Bilas picked us to the Final Four, so not really a hater. This entire thread is about how we got a good draw, and it's pretty hard to argue that we deserve an easier run than MSU. That seems pretty reasonable to think they should get a better draw than us.
This is the dog whistle stuff that isn't real that is stupid because it blurs the line with legit BS like the clear foul on a THREE POINT SHOT TO TIE THE GAME! I am still a little shocked that this garbage game-changing call isn't getting more publicity. This isn't sour grapes, that was a clear foul to tie the game. Ok, we blew a lead and played like crap to end the game. We still should have likely been tied with like 10 seconds to go. Both can be true.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:20 AM ^
Can you imagine if the roles were reversed? Izzo would have gone ballistic about that call. He would still be talking about it today.
ITS A CONSPIRACY!!!! BY THE REFS AND THE ANALYSTS!!! WOE IS US!!!
Or. . . ESPN says every team could lose (to drum up ratings) and you just remember them saying that about Michigan.
Nah, its a conspiracy. ?
Eh it made sense back in 2013. That team was super talented, but ultimately a little disappointing down the stretch. Then they came alive in the tourney. For whatever reason JB seems to get the most out of his team in tournaments. I still don't think this team makes a big run, but they certainly have the potential to do that. I honestly just think msu is a great team that takes advantage of our weaknesses and I'm glad we're done with them at the very least until the final four. It's very unlikely both teams make it that far, though.
March 18th, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
Bilas has UM in his final 4, Vitale has UM in his elite 8.
March 18th, 2019 at 12:13 AM ^
Also, I just wanted to make another (slightly off-topic) comment about BODY LANGUAGE. I feel like the team this year just shows it so much when the momentum is swinging away from them. I know X is usually like that and keeping an emotionless facade is pretty much his MO. But I'd like to see Matthews, Poole, and Teske keep the energy up. We saw Big John get hyped in last year's BTT and Matthews in last year's tourney run, and even JP in the B1G regular season. I just feel like someone has to take some damn leadership and pick up the team when things are down.
You see it sometimes with Livers, who always plays with a smile on his face. And Iggy obviously lacks no confidence, but he is a freshman. I just think of MAAR last year who was cool as in ice cube especially in end-game scenarios. I always felt confident when the ball was in his hands. Duncan was fun and Mo was obviously an energizer bunny. Those guys were leaders. We need some of that this weekend. Go blue
Noticed the body language as well, especially on the bench. MSU bench was hype the whole second half. No emotion on our bench. Obviously the moment was swinging the wrong way and it's hard to fire up when your lead is dwindling, but it would be nice to see some encouragement from the guys on the sideline.
March 18th, 2019 at 12:28 AM ^
Yes...I have some.
March 18th, 2019 at 12:52 AM ^
Unless Beilein starts running some off ball action on offense it won't matter. Our lulls are because all we do is pick n roll. Beilein has been a disaster x and o wise this year. So disapointing from a supposed offensive genius.