Opening Odds for Every First-Round Game; Michigan Favored by 16
Here's the LINK.
Some interesting ones. We're favored by 16 over Montana, MSU by 20 over Bradley, Wiscy by only 1.5 over Oregon.
Our success, like every other team, will be linked to what our 4,5,6 players do. Everyone has 3 key starters. However if another player can get 20 points and draw defense away from the others - you win.
Our early season success vs what you saw Sunday was what Matthews, Pool and Livers can do. Spartans McQuaid 5th man outplayed them all combined.
If Matthews, Pool and Livers can get hot we have no limit. If they keep throwing up spazzy bricks at the last second we might not get to sweet 16.
I hear what you are saying, but I wouldn't consider McQuaid the Spartans 5th man. He is there best 3 point shooter, and closer to option 3.
Oregon is now favored over Wisc. I feel that the team will come out a bit flat against Montana, but still win because... this has all happened already. Welcome to the matrix?
Oregon might be the best mid-major team in the country.
I like our bracket, unless we have an epic slump on offense we have a pretty good road ahead.
That said, this has been very strange season. I don't recall a coach B team looking so lost this late in the season.
The team has been lost against exactly one opponent, and has been obliterating everyone else.
Cool new word for scrabble...
You know what they say about dudes with fat thumbs.
"Lost"?
3x, after leading all three at the half..... yeah, don't recall a coach B team struggling that much this late in the season.
onliterating others or not.
I think 'lost' is a fairly accurate description of our offensive effort late in the game yesterday. Maybe even in the second half of the previous two games against lil' bro.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
You can't recall the 2013 team? A team that lost to last place Penn St, blew a big ten title on their home floor to IU, and bowed out early in the BTT tournament to Wisconsin? Those were 3 of our last 6 games before the NCAA tourney. Tell me how that team fared in the tournament that year. If that team can put together a run, I'll be less than surprised when this team that beat a 1 seed UNC by 20, the big east regular season and tournament champion AND defending national champion by 30 on their home court, a 3 seed Purdue by 20, and a bunch of other tournament teams in games that weren't even close (Iowa, OSU, Minnesota) makes the Final Four again
March 18th, 2019 at 10:51 AM ^
2013 could happen again. i give it a 1 in 3 chance.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
Struggling this late in the season? Michigan blew out Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska with relative ease and also beat Maryland in a comfortable win. What in the world are you talking about?
March 18th, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
I'm talking about the 2nd half collapse in three of our final seven games.
March 18th, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
Which came against a single team, one that happened to have been a top-5 KenPom team the entire year. Sure, those games sucked, especially yesterday’s. But to ignore the other four wins, three blowouts and one convincing road win, which (save Nebraska) came against tournament-bound teams of similar or greater quality compared to what we’ll see in the opening weekend, and conclude that we’re “lost”, and thus in trouble early on in the tournament? That’s quite a reach.
I will concede that we’ll be in trouble if we face Michigan State in the tourney, but they’ll probably drop out in the second round because some weird guy wasn’t ready to step up.
I see you changed your tweet so that my reply doesn't make sense
While I hope we beat the shit out of Montana, I think they won't cover that spread. After losing for MSU for a third time, the team will probably be down. That trifecta really stings, especially considering a trophy and banner were on the line for both games.
I'm not really sure what to expect from the team. Early season UM I felt could beat any team in the country. But as the season progressed I became less and less confident in the offense in clutch moments or being able to grind out wins. (*see all three MSU games). My fear is that a Montana/Florida/Nevada type team will keep it close and UM tightens up at the end of the game and loses early.
My hope is that the "MSU is a bad match up" drum that I hear being banged everywhere is true and UM powers through the first 2-3 rounds.
has nate silver rolled out his probabilities yet? I want to see if MSU has a lower probability than Michigan to reach the final four. .. and then LOL
Massey has Michigan St. with a 22% chance and Michigan at 16%.
That's largely because MSU would have an easier regional semi. It's probably worse than Massey's computers can detect; they don't know that Wade has the FBI on his tail, they just know LSU's not played well lately.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:20 AM ^
Looks like MSU is either gonna lose in the first two rounds or against Duke in the elite eight. The Maryland/LSU draw is very good, but playing a team you've already lost to in the second round (louisville) is probably throwing up a lot of red flags for them. Also, Izzo isn't beating K. He's like 1-12. Coach B has as many wins as Izzo against K and he's coached like 1/4 as many games against him
March 18th, 2019 at 11:56 AM ^
I have State beating Duke. Look at what Michigan did to Iowa and Minnesota, two tournament teams, immediately proceeding this MSU game. Dismemberment is the best word for it.
Michigan State beat that team three times.
Also, Duke's huge, signature win to close the season and secure that #1 overall seed? North Carolina. You may remember North Carolina as the team that Michigan also dismembered earlier this season by 20.
I think it is very possible that the two best teams in the country are in the State of Michigan. I see Michigan v. Michigan State in the national semi-final. And me drinking a bottle of liquid plumber if we lose a fourth time.
March 18th, 2019 at 12:22 PM ^
I have this nagging feeling that I can't shake.
It seems like every other year, some 15th seed will play the game of its life and shock a #2 seed that goes cold at the wrong time. It shouldn't happen, but it does.
I know, I know - enough with the negative waves, Moriarty. It's probably just because I've got a cold, and the bitter taste of three loses to STAEE, that's got me feeling this way.
But still ...
I follow (and bet) the Big Sky Conference closely. This Montana team is NOWHERE near as good as the one that Michigan played last year in the tourney.
The Grizzlies lost their best big man (Akoh) to a season ending injury mid-season. They have slowed down their pace of play without him and also made a late season change at the starting point guard spot going to Timothy Falls and he's also big reason they are playing slower now as well.
As for the 16 point spread, that's a total crapshoot IMHO as that means we're likely watching bench warmers deciding the spread late in games.
I do think the value here lies in the 'under' as both teams will want to play a slower paced game. They only combined last year for 108 points. Plus Michigan went 'under' the total in 5 of their 6 last year in the tourney and in also 9 of their past 11 NCAA tournament contests.
Good luck to all!!