Ohio St has 87th Toughest Schedule This Season

Submitted by SkyPanther on June 18th, 2018 at 1:53 AM

Phil Steele rank's Ohio St's strength of schedule very low this year, at 87th out of 130. And he has Michigan at 3rd toughest.

LINK:  http://plus.philsteele.com/Blogs/Blog_PDFs_Images/2018/DBMay02/2018_Spring_Guide.pdf

Schedule ranking of other notable teams. All teams that you would intuitively think could be in the CFP Final 4 rank below 53rd.

Alabama  54th

Georgia   63rd

Clemson  61st

Penn St   55th

Notre Dame  45th

USC   84th

Miami  65th

Michigan St  33rd

Wisconsin  99th

Oregon   122nd

Auburn   4th

Florida St  1st

Nebraska  2nd

 

If both Ohio St and Michigan end up 11-1, and only 1 can be put into the CFP Final 4, which should it be? Certainly Michigan, right? What if Michigan's 1 loss is to Ohio St? Wouldn't it be strange if Ohio St would be chosen in such a scenario? I know they would be chosen, because head-to-head play would be the determining factor. But how fair would that feel? If it feels ok then that is more evidence that strength of schedule can end up being meaningless.

So they want the 4 best teams in the Nation in the CFP Final 4, but strength of schedule could lose meaning in the equation. Can you do the math on that?

 

einstein-perplexed.jpg

 

 

Comments

bostonsix

June 18th, 2018 at 2:57 AM ^

Well, the committee chose Ohio State over NAMBLA University even though Franklin beat them, so it honestly wouldn't surprise me if they picked Ohio State even if we beat them. I'm already sick of the committee. They give teams such aAlabama

bostonsix

June 18th, 2018 at 3:06 AM ^

(Continued).. and Ohio State the benefit of the doubt because of prior years, and it's supposed to be about the current season. Fuck the committee and fuck Ohio State.  Hope our hard schedule and their easy schedule prepares us better to curb stomp those cooler pooping truckers in Columbus.  For Christ sake, their stadium is shaped like a toilet, and they still poop in coolers.

Honker Burger

June 18th, 2018 at 8:47 AM ^

Well, OSU did not get the benefit of the doubt last season considering they were the BIG champion last season and were left out. And the team that replaced them (Alabama) won the championship.

Any playoff regardless of number of teams is always going to have debate. I think the 8 team playoff would be the perfect number. There will still be snubs and debate, but Power 5 champs, +highest mid-major, +2 at large really seems to be the best format.

Honker Burger

June 18th, 2018 at 12:43 PM ^

Correct and clearly the committee made the right decision considering Alabama won the title last year. I'm pointing out that the poster above saying OSU 'gets the benefit of the doubt because of prior years' doesn't really hold water.

In 2016 OSU beat (at the time) AP #14 (OK) and #8 (WIS) teams on the road, and #9 (NEB) and #3 (MICH) team at home, while losing to unranked PSU on the road on a blocked FG.
(Final CFP rankings for those teams were #7, #8, UR, #6, #5, respectively)

Penn state beat (at the time) AP #2 (OSU) and UR (TEMPLE) at home, #6 (WIS) in BIG championship game, and got obliterated by #4 (MICH) and lost to UR (PITT) on the road.
(Final CFP rankings #3, #24, #8, #6, #23) 

BOLD=WIN

OSU was a better team than PSU in 2016, which is why they made the playoff. Also we got to watch them get obliterated by Clemson, which was very satisfying.

You can argue the conference championship is important, but in that case OSU should have made it over Alabama last year (which clearly they should not have) since they won their conference and had a more difficult schedule.

JonnyHintz

June 18th, 2018 at 5:14 AM ^

Except for the fact that Michigan’s loss to OSU would be more recent, it covers the head-head comparison, and it would vault OSU into the B1G title game so they would finish the year with two big wins while Michigan finished with a loss.

As biased as you are, OSU would be the easy pick. There are more factors than just your record and strength of schedule. 

FrozeMangoes

June 18th, 2018 at 9:43 AM ^

I don't know if there needs to be a dearth of 1 loss teams in that scenario.  If UM has one loss to OSU that means they have beaten @ND, PSU, @MSU, and the Badgers.  That would be a pretty impressive resume.  Especially, if the loss to OSU on the road is a tough fought battle, which would be hard to see otherwise if they went into the game undefeated. 

uferfan

June 18th, 2018 at 6:19 AM ^

Thank you for this list, but as a person who is OCD about putting things in some kind of order, this list wanted to make me set my face on fire.

GoBLUE_SemperFi

June 18th, 2018 at 6:59 AM ^

SOS will only be helpful when competing for the 4th CFP spot against other conferences, not against an OSU team that they've lost to.

As a fan, I'm not looking for a strength of schedule insurance policy.  If Michigan wants a CFP birth over OSU...beat them in Columbus.

GoBLUE_SemperFi

June 18th, 2018 at 6:59 AM ^

SOS will only be helpful when competing for the 4th CFP spot against other conferences, not against an OSU team that they've lost to.

As a fan, I'm not looking for a strength of schedule insurance policy.  If Michigan wants a CFP birth over OSU...beat them in Columbus.

Perkis-Size Me

June 18th, 2018 at 8:04 AM ^

Even if its final record is 11-1, Michigan will almost certainly not get into the playoff if its loss is to OSU. These days you just have to assume that the road to the Big Ten title is going through Columbus. So if we lose to OSU, it's very likely to near certain that OSU goes to Indy and beats Wisconsin. So OSU ends its regular season with two big wins, while we have a loss. We'd probably end up as the #5 team and go to the Rose Bowl.

Some really weird shit would have to happen around the country for us to still get in, like multiple two-loss conference champions, other teams ranked around us would have to have some kind of bad loss on their resume (like OSU's loss to Iowa last year), and the game against OSU next year would have to be like 2016 where it goes back and forth, any team could win, down to the final play which also could've gone either way. And even then, that may not be enough. There is a precedent for it with OSU two years ago and Alabama last year, but OSU and Alabama are going to get the benefit of the doubt every single time because of who mans their programs. It's unfortunate but I get it. 

saveferris

June 18th, 2018 at 8:54 AM ^

In 2017, Alabama lost it's last game of the regular season, which kept it out of the SEC Championship Game, and they still made it into the CFP as the 4 seed, while having a so-so SOS ranking.  If Michigan runs the table leading up the OSU game and loses a close game in Columbus, it's not inconceivable that they still might slide into the CFP as the 4 seed.

That said, let's just win the game and take away all doubt.

Perkis-Size Me

June 18th, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^

Exactly, and that was the point I made at the end of my original post. Alabama is going to get the benefit of the doubt because it's Alabama. Same goes for OSU, and now maybe Clemson. They've all made the playoffs multiple times, and they are the only ones who have won it all to begin with. So they've earned it. 

Michigan is not going to get that kind of consideration, and frankly they don't deserve to until they prove otherwise. If they don't beat OSU, they're virtually eliminated from the playoff. Plain and simple. 

Indy Pete - Go Blue

June 18th, 2018 at 8:22 AM ^

Fretting about unlikely scenarios like this in June is probably not the healthiest way to spend time. While I acknowledge there is not a whole lot of UM content to discuss this time of year, trying to devise a way to get into the playoff without beating Ohio State is a fruitless and frankly pathetic endeavor. Beat OSU.

Perkis-Size Me

June 18th, 2018 at 12:13 PM ^

Yes. Because it's Alabama. Because Nick Saban is the best coach in the game. Guys like Saban and Meyer are going to get the benefit of the doubt. The only way you can really eliminate those guys from the discussion is saddle them with two regular season losses. With Meyer its possible that happens, but with Saban? Forget it. 

They're in the playoff discussion, and a spot for them is all but guaranteed, every single year until he retires. 

bacon1431

June 18th, 2018 at 8:32 AM ^

Their schedule sucks because their conference crossovers are terrible. Oregon [email protected] isn't a terrible nonconference schedule, particularly when they scheduled the games (probably thought they'd have a 5-7 win P5 team in OSU, not one coming off a 1 win season). Next year their nonconference schedule is god-awful while they get Nebraska and Wisconsin in crossovers. 

WeimyWoodson

June 18th, 2018 at 9:59 AM ^

The playoff committee wants teams like Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State, Michigan, and ND in.  They want the huge name teams that will draw numbers.  If its a major program like I've mentioned neck and neck with a team that's not huge they'll go with the blue blood.  In 2016 the playoff committee was dying to have Michigan in until we dropped 2 of the last 3 games.  They knew Michigan + Harbaugh = huge ratings.  

I still believe this is why OSU got in over TCU in the first playoff.  OSU was going to be the bigger draw. 

NittanyFan

June 18th, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^

More correctly - ESPN wanted Ohio State in over TCU.  

And, what do you know, that's what happened.

The whole system is ridiculous, if you think about it.  ESPN broadcasts the CFP, and obviously has an interest in better ratings.  ESPN also broadcasts the weekly rankings.  ESPN then talks about those rankings for several days.  Those talking posts inevitably get heard by the committee and have a non-zero influence in their thinking as to the next set of rankings.

May as well let ESPN execs choose the Top 4 themselves.  That's essentially what happens, IMO.

Gameboy

June 18th, 2018 at 10:17 AM ^

We should be fretting about the dumbfuck who created this schedule. I still have no idea why they replaced Arkansas with ND, at ND no less. It doesn't do anything to have the toughest schedule in the country. Only thing it does is to make it harder to get to the playoffs. We have bunch of idiots running AD.

rc15

June 18th, 2018 at 10:28 AM ^

I mean, OSU and Alabama do have an scheduling advantage, but it's that they don't have to play the highest ranked team in their conference (themselves).

If your either of those teams, I personally don't see a difference if you schedule a Rutgers/Illinois/Kansas level opponent or and FCS team... Both games are going to be a blowout.

SkyPanther

June 18th, 2018 at 7:55 PM ^

It's possible Michigan will dominate Notre Dame. I have no confidence in Pep Hamilton running the passing game. And I don't think Jim Harbaugh does either. I think that's why he hired Jim McElwain as "WR Coach". He moved Pep Hamilton more toward play calling, at least that's what I gather from reading insider stuff.

Ed Warinner will be involved with the running game. And he has an EXCELLENT track record.

Ben Herbert was hired because of his track record for training a team to still be strong in the 4th qtr. That was the worst weakness of Michigan last year. I am expecting consistency from the offense this year. They should continue moving the ball in the 2nd half like they did in the 1st half of games last year.

Michigan's defense is experienced, and deep, this year. And with Chris Partridge coaching the safeties---there will be a vivid improvement there. Almost all complaints about the defense last year were about the safeties.

Michigan could beat Notre Dame by 21.